6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016

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Apr 262016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_8_2016

4/8/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: -0.2%
Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4126
1st Peak @ 1.4109 – 0431:11 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4120 – 0434 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4095 – 0442 (12 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4121 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.4110 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4103 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Nice short spike fell 17 ticks in a little over a minute to give a low slippage fill and allow up to 11 ticks to be captured. Then a small reversal followed by a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

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Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE (DULL FILL)
Started @ 1.4229
1st Peak @ 1.4216 – 0430:02 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.4230 – 0430:05 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.4221 – 0430:30 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0441 (11 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4224 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.4217 – 7 ticks (likely exit – 1.4223 – 1 tick)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4211 (on the PP Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Small reaction in the wrong direction that was quick to recoil and did not want to fall lower than the initial spike. Possibly due to the long move in progress and the support of the 50 SMA with the OOD and PP Pivot looming below. A profit target of 7 or less would have filled on the immediate spike, otherwise look for an exit near breakeven in the middle of the :31 bar.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

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Mar 042016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.4467
1st Peak @ 1.4438 – 0430:01 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.4499 – 0431:28 (2 min)
61 ticks

Pullback @ 1.4474 – 0436 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.4511 – 0503 (33 min)
37 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4461 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4439 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4446 (15 ticks and just below the PP Pivot / LOD)

Notes: Larger reaction but short lived due to crossing the PP Pivot and LOD on top of eachother. A profit target of anything less than 22 ticks would have filled. Otherwise you would be looking at a breakeven exit as it hovered for 30 sec near the fill point before continuing higher. After that it continued to reverse to the HOD in 30 min.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1.12.2016

 GBP Manufacturing Production  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1.12.2016
Jan 182016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 1_12_2016

1/12/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4529
1st Peak @ 1.4502 – 0430:35 (1 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4483 – 0436 (6 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 1.4503 – 0446 (16 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.4435 – 0607 (97 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 1.4447 – 0614 (104 min)
12 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4521 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4503 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4506 (15 ticks and in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Nice stable reaction for a sizeable 1st peak. After a negligible reversal, it kept falling for another 19 ticks on a quick 2nd peak. Then it settled into a downtrend for the indefinite future due in part to the news.