GBP Prelim GDP | JO Bracket Breakout

6B 06-13 (1 Min) 4.25.2013

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

4/25/2013 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.3%
TRAP TRADE (STOP OUT)
Started @ 1.5289 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5368 – 0430:06 (1 min)
)))79 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5358 – 0430:08 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 1.5397 – 0430:26 (1 min)
)))39 ticks
————
Peak @ 1.5411 – 0433 (3 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 1.5390 – 0436 (6 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5443 – 0506 (36 min)
154 ticks

Reversal to 1.5420 – 0524 (54 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5252 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.5238 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5324 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 1.5339 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in 0.2% above the forecast to impress the market. This caused a long spike of 79 ticks after 6 sec that started on the R2 Mid Pivot and eclipsed all 3 major SMAs, the R4 Pivot and HOD. This would have filled both short entries and then the stops for a loss of about 32 ticks total. The large reaction and bias long without any reversal along the way is an anomaly. It continued to climb to 1.5411 on the :33 bar, chopped sideways for about 25 min, then used the 13/20 SMAs as a springboard to climb for a final peak at 1.5443 for 154 total ticks.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 7.25.2013

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

7/25/2013 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.5368 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5307 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-61 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5346 – 0430:56 (1 min)
)))39 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5292 – 0503 (33 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 1.5309 – 0516 (46 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5333 (in between the R1 Mid and PP Pivots) / 1.5318 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5405 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 1.5418 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast. This caused a short spike of 61 ticks after 7 sec that started on the 20 SMA and eclipsed all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot and OOD. This would have filled both long entries with about 11 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 39 ticks as the bar was expiring. With the R1Mid Pivot at 1.5340, a handful of ticks above the price action in the earlier part of the bar, look to exit at about 1.5341 for 31 total ticks. After the reversal, it chopped below the R1 Mid Pivot for a few min, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot after 30 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in 13 min, crossing the 13/20 SMAs. After that it continued to step lower.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

10/25/2013 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6197 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6160 – 0429:59 (0 min)
)))-37 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6229 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))69 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6178 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-51 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6217 – 0431:02 (2 min)
)))39 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.6234 – 0437 (7 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 1.6182 – 0544 (74 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6163 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6149 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6229 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6247 (in between the R2 and R2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast for the second straight quarter. This caused an immediate large whipsaw with a short spike of 37 ticks 1 sec early that started on the OOD and eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD, then immediately reversed 69 ticks to the R1 Pivot and then fell to the PP Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 3 ticks to spare and just missed the short tier on the opposite side. After the pullback it reversed again as the :31 bar progressed. Look to exit around the 200 SMA for about 50 ticks. After the :31 bar, it tried to climb higher, but the R1 Pivot kept it from breaking out. Then it reversed back to the SMAs and traded sideways for about 30 min, then fell lower.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 1.28.2014

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Apr 272014

1/28/2014 Prelim GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6585 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6541 – 0430:03 (1 min)
)))-44 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6572 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))31 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.6560 – 0433 (3 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6599 – 0435 (5 min)
39 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6547 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 1.6535 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6620 (just above the HOD) / 1.6635 (in between the R3 and R3 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast for the third straight quarter. This caused a short spike of 44 ticks after 3 sec that started on the R1 Pivot and eclipsed the S1 Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 6 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 31 ticks in the next 4 sec, back to the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot a and hovered in the area for over a minute allowing an easy exit with about 25 ticks. After it pulled back 12 ticks on the :33 bar, it continued to reverse for another 39 ticks in 2 min, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reaching the 200 SMA. After that it sold off for nearly 70 ticks in the next 40 min.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.29.2014

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

May 182014

4/29/2014 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6832 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6788 – 0430:04 (1 min)
)))-44 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6820 – 0430:10 (1 min)
)))32 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 1.6787 – 0437 (7 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.6813 – 0519 (49 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6797 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6780 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6867 (in between the R2 and R2 Mid Pivots) / 1.6880 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in 0.1% worse than the forecast to mildly disappoint. This caused a short spike of 44 ticks after 3 sec that started on the R1 Pivot and eclipsed the S1 Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 8-9 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the next 6 sec, back to the 200 SMA / PP Pivot, then backed off about 10 ticks and hovered for about 1 min, allowing an easy exit with about 12-15 ticks. It fell for a double bottom 6 min later, then slowly reversed for 26 ticks in the next 42 min just below the 100 SMA.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 7.25.2014

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Aug 102014

7/25/2014 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.6970 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6977 – 0430:13 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6973 – 0430:47 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6986 – 0434 (4 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.6958 – 0458 (28 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6935 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 1.6918 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.7002 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.7023 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast. This caused a muted long spike of only 7 ticks after 13 sec that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and eclipsed the 100 SMA then backed off a few ticks. With the small impulse well inside the inner tier, cancel the order after about 15 sec. After the :31 bar, it climbed about 9 more ticks in the next 3 min after eclipsing the PP Pivot, OOD, and 200 SMA. This would have been a perfect setup for a reversal trade, with a matching report and crossing heavy layers of resistance. It fell for 28 ticks in the next 24 min, extending the LOD, but unable to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back and penetrated the S1 Pivot 25 min later.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 10.24.2014

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/24/2014 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.6025 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6004 – 0429:47 (0 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6044 – 0430:03 (1 min)
)))40 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6030 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.6050 – 0433 (3 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 1.6038 – 0437 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6066 – 0449 (19 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5990 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1.5975 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6060 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1.6075 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast. This caused a premature short spike of 21 ticks 13 sec before the release to the S1 Mid Pivot and LOD, then a reversal of 40 ticks just after the release to the R1 Pivot and HOD. With the impulse about 15 ticks inside of the inner tier, cancel the order after about 15 sec. After the :31 bar, it swung up and down around the R1 Pivot before eventually climbing to nearly reach the R2 Pivot after 19 min. Then it trickled lower to the PP Pivot in the next 45 min.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 1.28.2015

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Feb 172015

1/27/2015 Prelim GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.5082 (shift to 1.5087)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5060 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5091 – 0430:06 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.5065 – 0430:13 (1 min)
)))-26 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5055 – 0434 (4 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.5086 – 0454 (24 min)
31 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5053 (just below the PP Pivot) / 1.5035 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5122 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5135 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in 0.1% below the forecast to disappoint the market. This caused a short spike of 27 from the adjusted anchor point (5 tick shift up) in 1 sec that quickly reversed just past the origin for 31 ticks, then fell back to near the low. With the inner tiers at a nominal 35 ticks away, the short move would have missed by about 7 ticks and it hovered for only 3-4 sec before reversing, not allowing a manual shift. The reversal reached the SMAs and collapsed after only a 2 sec stay to hover around 1.5068. Then it drifted lower for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks to the PP Pivot after 3 min. After that it reversed 31 ticks in 20 min to the 100/200 SMAs.

6B 06-15 (1 Min) 4.28.2015

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

May 022015

4/28/2015 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.3%
TRAP TRADE (OUTER TIER)
Started @ 1.5220
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5168 – 0430:08 (1 min)
)))-52 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5183 – 0430:42 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.5171 – 0430:58 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5185 – 0431:25 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.5171 – 0438 (8 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5284 – 0608 (98 min)
113 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5185 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5170 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5256 (on the HOD) / 1.5270 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in 0.2% below the forecast to disappoint the market. This caused a short spike of 52 ticks that reached the S1 Mid Pivot in 8 sec. This would have filled both long entries making your average long position about 1.5177. You could have exited with about 10 ticks on the first reversal hovering, or after a pullback and secondary reversal with about the same amount. Normally this report matches the forecast or differs by 0.1%. As this report differed by 0.2%, we did not get a quick large reversal as is typical, but it did come over a 90 min period to trend long for 113 total ticks as it extended the HOD.

6B 09-15 (1 Min) 7.28.2015

GBP Prelim GDP Comments Off

Aug 242015

7/28/2015 Prelim GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.5532
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5547 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5536 – 0430:12 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.5555 – 0430:46 (1 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5547 – 0430:55 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5582 – 0441 (11 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 1.5561 – 0456 (26 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5612 – 0544 (74 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 1.5587 – 0612 (102 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5497 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5485 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5570 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.5582 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast to still impress the market. This caused a long spike of only 15 ticks then reversal of 11 ticks followed by a pullback of 19 ticks after 46 sec. This was all too small and slow developing to cause a fill, so cancel the order. It achieved a 2nd peak of 35 more ticks after 10 min after eclipsing the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 21 ticks in 15 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of another 30 ticks in 48 min to the R2 Mid Pivot before reversing 25 ticks to the 100 SMA in 28 min.

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