4/5/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 53.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4223
1st Peak @ 1.4211 – 0430:30 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4218 – 0430:54 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4206 – 0433 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0449 (19 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4219 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4212 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4210 (in between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Matching report caused a smaller move, but offered a zero slippage fill and up to 7 ticks initially. It found support at the LOD, then reversed and fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks 2 min later to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then a nice reversal in the next 16 min to the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA.

10/3/2013 GBP Services PMI (0428 EDT)
Forecast: 60.4
Actual: 60.3
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.6186 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6210 – 0428:08 (1 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6197 – 0428:17 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6212 – 0429:02 (2 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6203 – 0429:15 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.6224 – 0434 (6 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 1.6210 – 0440 (12 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6166 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 1.6151 (No SMA/Pivot nearby)
Short entries – 1.6208 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.6221 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching as it was 0.1 pts short of the forecast. This caused a surprisingly large long reaction of 24 ticks that started near the LOD, then rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. That would have barely filled the inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare. Then it would have backed off to hover in between 1.6197 and 1.6200 on the 100 SMA from :11 to :26 sec. Look to exit there with about 10 ticks before it rebounded long to hit a double top as the opening of the:30 bar. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks 4 min later, crossing the PP Pivot and the OOD. After that it reversed back to the 13 SMA for 14 ticks and settled into trading sideways around the OOD.

12/4/2013 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 62.1
Actual: 60.0
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.6352 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6325 – 0428:00 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6349 – 0428:42 (1 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6336 – 0430:08 (3 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.6365 – 0440 (12 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6332 (No SMA/Pivot nearby) / 1.6317 (No SMA/Pivot nearby)
Short entries – 1.6370 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6387 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with a reading 2.1 pts below the forecast. This caused a large short reaction of 27 ticks that started on the LOD, then fell cross the S1 Pivot and nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. That would have filled the inner long entry with 7 ticks to spare. Then it would have backed off to hover in just below the S1 Pivot, then eventually make another push higher. Look to exit on the S1 Pivot with about 13 ticks. After the initial reversal, it pulled back for 13 ticks in the next 2 min before reversing for 29 ticks in 9 min to the 100 SMA. After that it oscillated sideways between the 200 SMA and 50 / 100 SMAs.

2/5/2014 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 59.1
Actual: 58.3
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.6288 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6334 – 0428:08 (1 min)
)))46 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6296 – 0428:16 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6310 – 0428:36 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6283 – 0429:28 (2 min)
)))-27 ticks
————
Extended reversal to 1.6260 – 0457 (29 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6268 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 1.6251 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6309 (just above the PP Pivot) / 1.6322 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with a reading 0.8 pts below the forecast. This caused a large long reaction of 46 ticks in the wrong direction that started just above the LOD and crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot coming just short of the HOD. Then it crashed for 38 ticks in only 8 sec back to the 20 SMA. That would have filled both short entries with about 11 ticks to spare, then retreated to allow up to 36 or more total ticks to be captured below the S1 Mid Pivot. When you saw the long spike and big crash on a bearish report, it would be safe to wait for a larger short move to pan out. After the :31 bar, up to 90 ticks could have been covered as it continued to reverse. It fell to cross the S2 Pivot then trade sideways after 29 min.

4/3/2014 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 57.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 1.6621 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6594 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6612 – 0431:14 (2 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.6596 – 0434 (4 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.6609 – 0447 (17 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6586 – 0501 (31 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.6599 – 0514 (44 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6600 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 1.6586 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6642 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6655 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot/HOD)

Notes: Report came in short of expectations with an offset of -0.6 causing a premature short impulse for 27 ticks that started about 15 sec early and eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot just after the :31 bar started. This would have filled you inner long tier with about 6 ticks to spare. Then it reversed over the next 1:14 for 18 ticks nearly to the S1 Mid Pivot, allowing up to 12 ticks to be captured. After that is pulled back to 2 ticks short of the initial peak on the :34 bar and reversed to the 13/20 SMAs 12 min later. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot on the :01 bar, before reversing 13 ticks in the next 13 min and trading sideways.