5/11/2015 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.5485 – shift 5 ticks down to 1.5480
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5470 – 0700:00 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5482 – 0700:20 (1 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.5485 – 0701:59 (2 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.5459 – 0723 (23 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.5491 – 0742 (42 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5471 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5461 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5489 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5500 (just above the R1 Pivot / HOD)

Notes: The Bank of England left rates unchanged as expected, and the Asset Purchase Facility also remained unchanged. The initial anchor point would have shifted lower about 5 ticks after the 45 sec buffer, so bias the orders lower as time lapses. This caused a short spike of 10 ticks that would have filled the inner long entry nicely then reversed 12 ticks in 20 sec to allow about 9 ticks to be captured where it hovered for over a minute. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 21 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 100 SMA before reversing 32 ticks in 19 min.

7/9/2015 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Pt @ 1.5376
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5368 – 0700:19 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5373 – 0700:30 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5363 – 0707 (7 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.5395 – 0726 (26 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5368 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 1.5357 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5384 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1.5396 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The Bank of England left rates unchanged as expected, and the Asset Purchase Facility also remained unchanged. This caused a short spike of 8 ticks to the R1 Pivot after 18 sec that would have touched the inner short entry, but not filled. Due to the time elapsed and slow approach, cancel the order. It reversed 5 ticks in 11 sec before falling a for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 19 min to the R2 Pivot.

10/8/2015 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER / OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.5338
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5349 – 0700:09 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5319 – 0700:21 (1 min)
)))-30 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.5343 – 0700:34 (1 min)
)))24 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.5298 – 0716 (16 min)
45 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.5264 – 0814 (74 min)
79 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5329 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5320 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5348 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1.5357 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 1.5348 (short) / 1.5329 and 1.5320 (long – both tiers)
Best Initial Exit: Inner tiers both fill – 19 ticks. Outer long tier fills with best exit at 1.5342 – 22 ticks. 41 total ticks.
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.5338 (above the R1 Pivot) after the outer long tier filled

Notes: Perfect setup to fill the inner short, then reverse to fill both long tiers, then pullback to above the origin to allow more profit. Then it continued to fall and continue the overall short trend using the 13/20 SMAs as resistance.

1/14/2016 Official Bank Rate / Asset Purchase Facility (0700 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.4389 – shift 4 ticks lower to 1.4385
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4410 – 0700:10 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4391 – 0700:14 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.4406 – 0700:19 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4388 – 0700:27 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.4415 – 0702 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.4384 – 0704 (4 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4438 – 0718 (18 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 1.4387 – 0803 (63 min)
51 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4376 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.4365 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 1.4395 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1.4404 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: Both tiers short – avg short 1.4399.5
Best Initial Exit: 1.4389 – 21 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4390 (just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled in 10 sec, then it quickly stabbed at the 200 SMA but recoiled after 3 sec. If you exited there, it would have been about 13 ticks. It pulled back and reversed deeper to breach the 200 SMA, then pulled back again. This is where the profit target would have caught around 20 ticks. After that it made a few more swings in the next hour.