CAN Employment Change | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 8.9.2013

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Dec 272013

8/9/2013 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 6.2K
Employment Change Actual: -39.4K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.1%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9707
1st Peak @ 0.9655 – 0831 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 0.9670 – 0846 (16 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9650 – 0928 (58 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 0.9700 – 1018 (108 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report showing a loss of nearly 40K jobs and an uptick in the unemployment rate. This caused the 6C to spike short for 52 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9697 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall like a rock. Look to exit near 0.9660 or the PP Pivot at 0.9657 for up to 40 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed 15 ticks back to the 13/20 SMAs in 15 min, then fell for a modest 2nd peak of 5 more ticks at the bottom of the hour. Then the reversal took over to reclaim 50 ticks in the next 50 min ,as it fought through every SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot to nearly come back up to the origin.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

May 252013

5/10/2013 Employment Change (0830 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 14.8K
Employment Change Actual: 12.5K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9900
1st Peak @ 0.9916 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9863 – 0831 (1 min)
-53 ticks

Notes: Slightly negative report but close to matching showing a smaller than expected gain in the number of jobs and no change in the unemployment rate. This caused the 6C to spike long for 16 ticks then reverse for 53 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9909 with 2 ticks of slippage, then stopped out with about 17 ticks (2 ticks slippage) when it reversed. The nearly matching report is to blame for the double wicker. The long term reaction was bearish as it corrected back up to the 20 SMA, then drifted lower to extend the LOD by 9 ticks an hour after the report.

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 2.8.2013

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

May 052013

2/8/2013 Employment Change (0830 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 4.5K
Employment Change Actual: -21.9K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.0%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9987
1st Peak @ 0.9954 – 0831 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.9973 – 0840 (10 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report showing a healthy drop in the number of jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate due to less people looking for work. This caused the 6C to spike short for 33 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9977 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 15 ticks as it hovered around 0.9960. After the spike, it reversed up to the 13 SMA for 19 ticks in 10 min. Then it attempted to fall again, but could only reach 3 ticks higher than the 1st peak before the long term reversal took over in the next 90 min.

6C 09 12 (1 Min) 09.07.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Sep 072012

9/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 9.9K
Employment Change Actual: 34.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0186
1st Peak @ 1.0173 – 0231 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0199 – 0232 (2 min)
26 ticks

2nd Reversal Peak @ 1.0222 – 0243 (13 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report showing a healthy rise in the number of jobs in spite of no change in the unemployment rate. This broke at the same time as the US Non Farm Employment report which was strongly negative and caused the dollar to drop. This caused the 6C to drop initially, but it quickly rebounded and followed the fall of the dollar and the strong report. I advised against trading this report due to the US NFP parallel and superior influence. This initial action was hampered by the 3 major SMAs near the origin, then the R1 Pivot was crossed on the reversal 2nd peak

6C 09 12 (1 Min) 08.10.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Aug 102012

8/10/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 9.6K
Actual: -30.4K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0044
1st Peak @ 1.0010 – 0231 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.0040 – 0233 (3 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Extremely negative report showing a loss of about 30K jobs when nearly 10K jobs added were expected along with an uptick in the unemployment rate. The large short spike was expected, but the inability to sustain the drop and no 2nd peak are surprising. The spike only crossed the S2 Pivot with all of the 3 major SMAs above the trade action before the report release. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0031 with 6 or so ticks of slippage. Then close out when it hovered 3-7 ticks below the S2 Pivot for about 7-10 ticks. The reversal reclaimed most of the drop to 1.0040 in a quick 2 minutes. Then the market tried to fall again, but could only eclipse the S2 Pivot, finding solid support and rising slowly for the next few hours.

6C 09 12 (1 Min) 07.06.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Jul 062012

7/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 7.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
INDECISIVE then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9836
1st Peak @ 0.9845 / Reversal to 0.9825 – 0231 (1 min)
9 ticks / -11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9805 – 0252 (22 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.9825 – 0319 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report showing a small rise in the number of jobs and 0.1% improvement in the unemployment rate. This broke at the same time as the US Non Farm Employment report which was strongly negative. This caused initial indecision followed by a short move that was driven by the dollar rallying. I advised against trading this report due to the US NFP parallel and superior influence. This initial action was hampered by the 3 major SMAs near the origin, then the S1 Pivot was crossed about halfway down the path that terminated just above the S2 Pivot. The reversal rose to just below the S1 Pivot.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 06.08.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Jun 082012

6/8/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 10.0K
Actual: 7.7K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9676
1st Peak @ 0.9654 – 0231 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.9682 – 0235 (5 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Slightly negative report showing a smaller than expected # of jobs created compared to what was expected with no change in the unemployment rate. Not surpirisingly the market shorted for only 22 ticks, and pulled back sharply. The pullback was aide by the crossing of all 3 major SMAs and the S3 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.9663. The move to 0.9654 and bounce was almost instantaneous, then the market hovered between a 2 tick profit and 9 tick loss. I would move the stop loss to 0.9674, just above the 200 SMA and place an exit at 0.9665 just below the 100 SMA looking to take a 2 tick loss. The volume dried up at the end of the :31 bar, but the 0.9665 exit would have filled on the :32 bar before the reversal headed to 0.9682 3 min later.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 05.11.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

May 112012

5/11/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:58.2K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
INDECISIVE then UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9945
1st Peak @ 0.9910 / Reversal to 1.0001 – 0231 (1 min)
-35 ticks / 56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0038 – 0403 (93 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 0.9978 – 0956 (446 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Very positive report showing a large rise in the number of jobs when a smaller gain was expected but no change in the unemployment rate. The market spiked down prematurely on the :30 bar and then gapped the transition between the :31 bar by 56 ticks. This is bizarre and anomalous, yet was a recipe for a loss with JOBB as you would have filled short and gotten stopped out on the long reversal. With the strong report, the market did a short term small correction, then continued to rally and FAN up to 1.0038 for a total of 93 ticks from the origin.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 04.05.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 052012

4/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 11.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:82.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual:7.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0000
1st Peak @ 1.0060 – 0231 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 1.0036 – 0239 (9 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0064 – 0255 (25 min)
64 ticks (28 ticks from reversal)

Reversal to 1.0048 – 0311 (41 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Very positive report showing a large rise in the number of jobs when a smaller gain was expected and a healthy drop in the unemployment rate. The market spiked upward 60 ticks, crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs close to the origin, then quickly retreated to hover at 1.0026 to 1.0036. It also crossed the S1, PP, R1, and R2 lines. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0009, then the conservative play would be to exit at the R1 line at 1.0034 near the top of the hovering. Not surprisingly it reversed back to the R1, then achieved a 2nd peak 4 ticks higher than the original peak, then reversed again for a relatively small retreat as volume and volatility dried up.

6C 03 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 092012

3/9/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 14.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-2.8K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.6%
Rate Actual:7.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0073
1st Peak @ 1.0058 / Reversal to 1.0083 – 0201 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 10 ticks

Notes: Mixed report showing an unexpected loss of jobs when 14K gain was expected but a drop the in unemployment rate caused indecision. The drop in the rate was caused by a reduction of the labor force, so all the details were truly negative, but the headlines caused indecision. Market dropped 15 ticks in 1 sec, then retreated a little to hover in the 6-10 tick negative area. If you closed out here, you would have a modest 1-5 ticks profit. Then it reversed and would have hit the stop loss 40 sec into the 0201 candle if you had not closed out before then.

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