6C 06-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 06-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014
May 062014
 


6C 06-14 (1 Min)  4_16_20146C 06-14 (Second)  4_16_2014

4/16/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9092
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9077 – 1000:06 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9113 – 1000:13 (1 min)
)))36 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.9077 – 1000:50 (1 min)
)))-36 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9063 – 1006 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.9086 – 1010 (10 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9071 (just below the S1 Pivot and LOD)
Short entry – 0.9118 (just below the R2 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused an unsustainable short spike that was too small by about 5-10 ticks to trip our tier. The reversal was sizeable, but it would have also barely missed the tier, so cancel the order. This report is prone to have that happen on occasion as the range of the spikes is so broad and we have conservative settings. After the long reversal, if fell to reach a double bottom before the :01 bar expired, then continued to fall another 14 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks back to the 20 SMA and PP Pivot. After that it chopped sideways for about 1 hour.

6C 06-14 (1 Min) 4.17.2014

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-14 (1 Min) 4.17.2014
May 062014
 

6C 06-14 (1 Min)  4_17_2014 6C 06-14 (Second)  4_17_2014

4/17/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.4%
CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION -FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9068 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9085 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9074 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9084 – 0830:55 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9076 – 0836 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9087 – 0841 (11 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9075 – 0916 (46 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9058 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9049 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9078 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.9087 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and mildly exceeded the forecast on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused a long spike of 17 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, then a quick reversal of 9 ticks after 25 sec. The long move would have filled your inner tier then continued to rise for 8 ticks as it would have missed the outer tier by 2 ticks. Then it would have briefly given you 4 ticks of profit as it returned to the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back to hover between 2-4 ticks in the red for about 20 sec. Move to stop to 5 ticks and move the profit target to the PP Pivot at 77. The stop would have filled. You could have also been patient and waited for the fall back to the PP Pivot later on the :36 bar and exited with +1 tick. After the reversal, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, then fell for a slow reversal of 12 ticks in 35 min, back to the 100 SMA.

6C 06-14 (1 Min) 5.9.2014

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 06-14 (1 Min) 5.9.2014
May 252014
 

6C 06-14 (1 Min)  5_9_2014

5/9/2014 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 12.8K
Employment Change Actual: -28.9K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.9%
Rate Actual: 6.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9222
1st Peak @ 0.9168 – 0830:03 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.9189 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9153 – 0908 (38 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.9175 – 0953 (83 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Very disappointing report with nearly 30K jobs lost when a gain of about 13K was forecast. This caused a stable large short spike of 54 ticks in the first 3 sec that started just above the LOD and fell to eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9201 with 14 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak quickly but surrender about 15 ticks after a few sec. A profit target of anything less than 30 would have easily filled. Otherwise you could look to exit around 9185 for 16 ticks where it hovered later in the bar, or be patient and wait for it to drop due to the very biased result. After a reversal of 21 ticks to the S1 Pivot, it stepped lower to eventually conquer the S2 Mid Pivot and carve out 15 more ticks on the final peak. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in 45 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA.

6C 06-14 (1 Min) 5.23.2014

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-14 (1 Min) 5.23.2014
Jun 022014
 

6C 06-14 (1 Min)  5_23_2014

5/23/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9175 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9165 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9173 – 0830:16 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9167 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9177 – 0832 (2 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9190 – 0907 (37 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9165 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.9157 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9187 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.9195 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused a short spike of 10 ticks that eclipsed the PP Pivot, then a quick reversal of 8 ticks after 14 sec. The short move would have filled your inner tier if you used a setting of 0.9165 or closer, then reversed to give you an opportunity to exit with about 6 ticks as it hovered in the middle of the :01 bar. If you waited, it would have pulled back 6 ticks, then continued to reverse, allowing up to 12 ticks to be captured on the next bar as it reached the R1 Mid Pivot. After that, it traded sideways then continued to rise until it reached the R1 Pivot 35 min later. Then it traded sideways near the R1 Pivot.

6C 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014
Jun 142014
 

6C 06-14 (1 Min)  6_4_2014 6C 06-14 (Second)  6_4_2014

6/4/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9151
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9139 – 1000:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9158 – 1000:09 (1 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9130 – 1000:43 (1 min)
)))-28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9141 – 1001:05 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9127 – 1003 (3 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9138 – 1008 (8 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 0.9125 – 1011 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9141 – 1047 (47 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9124 (just below the S4 Mid Pivot and LOD)
Short entry – 0.9171 (just above the R2 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have been too small to reach the trap tier so cancel the order. It initially fell 12 ticks to cross the S3 Mid Pivot, then reversed to nearly reach the PP Pivot. Then it fell again to cross the S3 Pivot later in the :01 bar. Then it reversed to the S3 Mid Pivot before falling to touch the LOD. Then it reversed to the 13 SMA and fell to the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed to the S3 Mid Pivot for 16 ticks in the next 36 min.

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 6.20.2014

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 09-14 (1 Min) 6.20.2014
Jul 062014
 

6C 09-14 (1 Min)  6_20_2014 6C 09-14 (Second)  6_20_2014

6/20/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.2%
CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9226 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9256 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))30 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9239 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9253 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.9281 – 0854 (24 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.9268 – 0906 (36 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9208 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9246 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on all fronts as both CPI readings were 0.3% stronger than expected and the retail sales readings were also very strong. This caused a long spike of 30 ticks that nearly reached the R3 Pivot, then a quick reversal of 17 ticks after 3 sec. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The long move would have filled your tier at about 0.9246 with 10 ticks of heat initially, then reversed to give you a brief opportunity to exit with about 3-4 ticks in the opening seconds. After that it would have chopped on either side of the fill point to allow an exit between 1 tick of profit and 4 ticks loss. With the strongly biased results, get out quickly before it climbs for a 2nd peak, or reverse the trade and wait for the ensuing rally as it continued to climb for another 25 ticks in the next 23 min to reach the R4 Pivot. Then it fell 13 ticks in 12 min to the R4 Mid Pivot.

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 7.11.2014

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 09-14 (1 Min) 7.11.2014
Jul 232014
 

6C 09-14 (1 Min)  7_11_2014

7/11/2014 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 20.7K
Employment Change Actual: -9.4K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.0%
Rate Actual: 7.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9377
1st Peak @ 0.9343 – 0830:00 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.9361 – 0830:24 (1 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9320 – 0915 (45 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 0.9331 – 0932 (62 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Very disappointing report with nearly 10K jobs lost when a gain of about 21K was forecast. This caused a large short spike of 34 ticks in the first 1 sec that started on the 13 SMA and fell to hit the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9358 with 12 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak quickly but surrender about 10-15 ticks after the first second. A profit target of anything less than 15 would have easily filled. Otherwise be patient as and wait for it to continue to fall after a few min as the report was very bearish and 34 ticks initially is relatively small. It took 3 min to challenge the S2 Pivot again, allowing 15-18 ticks to be captured. Then it traded sideways on the S2 Pivot for 15 min until the 13/20 SMAs fell to act as resistance and push it lower again. It eventually reached the S3 Pivot for 23 additional ticks after 45 min, then it reversed for 11 ticks to the 50 SMA / S3 Mid Pivot in 17 min.

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 7.16.2014

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 09-14 (1 Min) 7.16.2014
Jul 312014
 

6C 09-14 (1 Min)  7_16_2014 6C 09-14 (Second)  7_16_2014

7/16/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9278
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9293 – 1000:04 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9255 – 1000:39 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9265 – 1000:53 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9250 – 1004 (4 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.9287 – 1102 (62 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9252 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9305 (just above the R1 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have been too small to reach the trap tier so cancel the order. It initially rose 15 ticks to cross the PP Mid Pivot and extend the HOD, then reversed to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it pulled back for 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot and original LOD position before falling again to hover around the S2 Mid Pivot for 4 min. Then it pulled back strongly to the PP Pivot in about an hour for 37 ticks. The price action near the S2 Mid Pivot would have been an ideal opportunity for a long entry as it kept testing the Pivot and finding support after a large short move. A target of the S1 Pivot would be conservative, but it passed through the 13/20 SMAs strongly, so it would also be safe to hold on.

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 7.18.2014

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 09-14 (1 Min) 7.18.2014
Jul 312014
 

6C 09-14 (1 Min)  7_18_20146C 09-14 (Second)  7_18_2014

7/18/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.1%
Core CPI Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9285 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9316 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9304 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9326 – 0835 (5 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.9306 – 0845 (15 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.9297 – 0944 (74 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9267 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9304 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report matched the forecast across the board, but strongly exceeded the forecast on the concurrently released Wholesale sales report by 1.5%. This caused a long spike of 31 ticks that reached the R2 Pivot after 11 sec, then a quick reversal of 12 ticks after 11 sec to the R1 Pivot. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The long move would have filled your tier at about 0.9304 with up to 12 ticks of heat initially, then reversed to give you an opportunity to exit between breakeven and 4 ticks loss for about 15 sec. With the strongly biased report, look to exit at the earliest opportunity near the fill point. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks to the R3 Mid Pivot after 4 min, then fell for 20 ticks after 10 min to the R2 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA. Then it fell for another 9 ticks in the next hour as it trickled lower.

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 8.8.2014

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 09-14 (1 Min) 8.8.2014
Aug 302014
 

6C 09-14 (1 Min)  8_8_2014

8/8/2014 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 25.4K
Employment Change Actual: 0.2K (corrected to 41.7K one week later)
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.0%
Rate Actual: 7.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9152
1st Peak @ 0.9112 – 0830:59 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.9124 – 0845 (15 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9105 – 0925 (55 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 0.9112 – 0941 (71 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Very disappointing report with nearly no change in jobs lost when a gain of about 25K was forecast. This caused a large short spike of 40 ticks total with 30 ticks in the first sec that started on the R1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9134 with 11 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture over 20 ticks as it peaked slowly late in the bar. After a double bottom 7 min later, it reversed for 12 ticks to the 20 SMA in 8 min. This presented a great short entry for a 2nd peak trade as it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 40 min using the 13/20 SMAs as resistance until it reached the S3 Mid Pivot. You could have captured up to 17 ticks. Then it reversed for 7 ticks back to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.