HG 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

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Aug 242014
 

HG 09-14 (1 Min)  8_1_2014

7/31/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 52.0
Actual: 51.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2350
1st Peak @ 3.2320 – 2148 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.2345 – 2221 (36 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.2305 – 2233 (48 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 3.2345 – 2258 (73 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a short spike of 6 ticks ticks that fell to cross the 13/20 SMAs on the :46 – 48 bars. Then it traded sideways and eventually reversed for 5 ticks after 33 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.2335 with no slippage. Then it would have allowed up to 3 ticks to be captured. After the reversal it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to the 100/200 SMAs and OOD in 12 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 25 min for a double top.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 8.31.2014

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Sep 132014
 

HG 12-14 (1 Min)  9_1_2014

8/31/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 50.2
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 3.1695
1st Peak @ 3.1665 – 2201 (16 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.1700 – 2225 (40 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a negligible margin of 0.1 pts and was released over the Labor Day holiday weekend. This caused a no move on the :46 bar, but 6 ticks short in 16 min to the 100 SMA. Then it reversed 7 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot in the next 24 min. With JOBB you should have cancelled the order after 15 sec with no impulse. It is notable that the market still moved short in a delayed manner, so in hindsight, shorting the market for a few ticks would have worked.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 9.29.2014

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Oct 102014
 

HG 12-14 (1 Min)  9_29_2014

9/29/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.0515
1st Peak @ 3.0490 – 2146 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 3.0525 – 2148 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.0480 – 2154 (9 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 3.0595 – 2239 (54 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a 5 tick short move that crossed the 100 SMA and PP Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.0500 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks when it hovered just below the PP Pivot. It reversed 7 ticks in the next 2 bars before falling for a 2 tick 2nd peak to reach the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 45 min to nearly reach the HOD.

HG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.2.2014

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Nov 292014
 

HG 12-14 (1 Min)  11_2_2014

11/2/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 50.4
DULL REACTION
Started @ 3.0480
1st Peak @ 3.0470 – 2045:12 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 3.0485 – 2047 (2 min)
3 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast. This caused a 2 tick bump short that reached the 50 SMA. With JOBB you should have cancelled after 10 sec with no impulse, but if you did not you would have filled short at 3.0470 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-2 ticks loss. It reversed 3 ticks in the next 2 min and traded sideways for 15 min to illustrate the muted influence.

HG 03-15 (1 Min) 11.30.2014

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Dec 302014
 

HG 03-15 (1 Min)  11_30_2014

11/30/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 50.0
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.8100
1st Bar Span – 2.8105 – 2-8095 (1 min)
2 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast. This caused no movement on the :46 bar with only 2 ticks span which could be resulting from the bid spread alone. With JOBB you should have cancelled after 10 sec with no impulse, but it would not have filled the short order until 90 sec after the release anyway.

HG 03-15 (1 Min) 2.1.2015

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Mar 052015
 

2/1/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 49.7
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.4965
1st Bar Span – 2.4960 – 2-4965 (1 min)
1 tick

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by only 0.1 to cause no movement on the :46 bar with only 1 tick span which could be resulting from the bid spread alone. With JOBB you should have cancelled after 10 sec with no impulse, but it would not have filled the short order until 65 sec after the release anyway.

HG 05-15 (1 Min) 3.1.2015

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Mar 212015
 

HG 05-15 (1 Min)  3_1_2015

3/1/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 2.6890
1st Peak @ 2.6910 – 2046:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 3.6880 – 2051 (6 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.6940 – 2108 (23 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 2.6925 – 2111 (26 min)
3 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a relatively large margin of 0.6 pts. This caused a 4 tick long move in 1 min that started on the 13/20 SMAs. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 2.6900 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 1 or 2 ticks of profit quickly as it hovered. As this report usually achieves a 2nd peak, it reversed 6 ticks in 5 min before climbing for a 2nd peak for 6 more ticks in 17 min after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed only 3ticks and traded sideways above the R1 Mid Pivot.

HG 05-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

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Apr 122015
 

HG 05-15 (1 Min)  3_31_2015

3/31/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 49.6
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.7525
1st Bar Span – 2.7525 – 2.7515 (1 min)
2 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused only 2 ticks of total movement on the :46 bar to make the decision to cancel easy. The market was likely still digesting the large manufacturing report from 45 min earlier that jolted the market.

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5.3.2015

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May 112015
 

HG 07-15 (1 Min)  5_3_2015

5/3/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.9
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 2.9065
1st Peak @ 2.9045 – 2145:15 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 2.9085 – 2145:24 (1 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin of 0.5 pts but caused a muted reaction. This caused a short move of 4 ticks in 15 sec after starting on the 200 SMA. This would have filled the short order with no slippage at 2.9055 at 4 sec then allowed an exit at breakeven to 1 tick of profit up to 13 sec later. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 7 sec and chopped around the 200 SMA for 6 min.

HG 07-15 (1 Min) 5.31.2015

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Jun 162015
 

HG 07-15 (1 Min)  5_31_2015

5/31/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.2
Actual: 49.2
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.7360
1st Peak @ 2.7375 – 2145:25 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.7385 – 2150 (5 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 2.7350 – 2201 (16 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast to cause a muted and delayed reaction. This caused a long move of only 3 ticks after 25 sec. Since no movement happened, cancel the order after 15 sec. It continued to gain 2 more ticks in 4 more min to breach the HOD, then reversed 7 ticks in 11 min to the 50 SMA.