HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI | JO Bracket Breakout

HG 09-15 (1 Min) 8.20.2015

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 152015

8/20/2015 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 47.1
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 48.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.3125
1st Peak @ 2.3095 – 2145:59 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 2.3145 – 2151 (6 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 2.3100 – 2157 (12 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2.3145 – 2210 (25 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.0 pts with a modest downward previous report revision. This caused a slow developing short spike of only 6 ticks that took about a min to realize. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 2.3110 with no slippage. Then you would been able to capture 1-2 ticks when it hovered near the bottom. Move the stop to breakeven if you are waiting for a larger drop as it often peaks later. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 5 min back to the 20 SMA before pulling back 9 ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the 50 SMA in 13 min.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a short spike of 17 ticks allowing up to 8 ticks to be captured.

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 1.22.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 302014

1/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.3315
1st Peak @ 3.3225 – 2049 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 3.3265 – 2051 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.3180 – 2135 (50 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 3.3235 – 2219 (94 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report moderately disappointed the traders, with no previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that started just below the S1 Mid Pivot, crossed all 3 major SMAs, and eventually reached the S2 Pivot / LOD on the :48/:49 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.3295 with about 1 tick of slippage. In this case we have the 100/200 SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot in play on the :46 bar, which together make up a strong barrier. However, after a few sec in the bar, it never retreated above the 200 SMA. Since this report often peaks after 1 min, the drop was sustained, and you have a decent spread on the results, stay in and target the area just above the S2 Pivot around 3.3240 since that area was holding as support in the last hour or so. That would have easily filled for 11 ticks on the :48 bar. After reaching the S2 Pivot, it reversed for 8 ticks back to the S2 Mid Pivot 2 min later. Then it fell for a slow, but deliberate 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 45 min, just above the S3 Mid Pivot.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 11.20.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/20/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.1520
1st Peak @ 3.1460 – 2047 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 3.1565 – 2055 (10 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report mildly disappointed the traders, with no previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 12 ticks that started on the 100 SMA, crossed the 200 SMA, and matched a level of support reached about 15 min before the report. It was unable to reach the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD looming only 3 ticks lower. While the reaction culminated on the :47 bar, it did not sustain the level after that. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1500 with no slippage. Wait for the :46 bar to expire. As it is finding support in the same area as the price action from 2032, I would place a target on the S1 Mid Pivot at 3.1445 and move the stop to 3.1480. The stop would have filled on the :48 bar to capture 4 ticks of profit. After the initial spike, it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 8 min, crossing all 3 major Pivots and reaching the PP Pivot. After that it oscillated once and then settled down to trade close to the SMAs.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 10.23.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 192013

10/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: -1.0 to 50.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.2700
1st Peak @ 3.2775 – 2147 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 3.2720 – 2203 (18 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, offset by a sizable previous report downward revision. This caused a long spike of 15 ticks that crossed the 100 SMA and PP Pivot, and also eclipsed the HOD. As usual the reaction culminated on the :47 bar and held the level for about 5 min. The reaction started on the 200 SMA after a decent drop about 40 min before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.2735 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the HOD at about 3.2770 with about 7 ticks. After the initial spike, it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 13 min back to the 100 SMA. While it did not go for a 2nd peak, it did oscillate between the 100 SMA and HOD for the next hour or so.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 9.22.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 222013

9/22/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.9
Actual: 51.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.2700
1st Peak @ 3.2820 – 2147 (2 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.2730 – 2205 (20 min)
18 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.2680 – 2247 (62 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, with no previous report revision and a reading even higher above 50. This caused a long spike of 24 ticks that eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot and sustained most of the advance on the :47 bar. The market had sold off about 70 ticks about 45 min before the report when the German election results were announced with Merkel winning a decisive victory. Then it was slowly recovering from the drop as the report hit. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.2735 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S3 Mid Pivot at about 3.2810 with about 15 ticks. Due to the narrow offset of the result over the forecast, and the aftermath of the elections, be it would not be advisable to stay in for a 2nd peak; however, if you did, when it failed to go higher after 15 min while the 100 SMA was falling and the MACD crossed, get out before the reversal. After 15 min of trading sideways on the S3 Mid Pivot, it reversed for about 18 ticks in the next 4 bars to hit the 50 SMA. Then after another 40 min, it yielded another 10 ticks as volume dried up and it traded sideways.

HG 09-13 (1 Min) 8.21.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 222013

8/21/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.3
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.3185
1st Peak @ 3.3330 – 2146 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 3.3275 – 2147 (2 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.3445 – 2200 (15 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 3.3335 – 2228 (43 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with no previous report revision with a reading barely above 50. This caused a long spike of 29 ticks that eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot and sustained most of the advance on the :46 bar. The market had been trending higher for about an hour before the report with the SMAs rising, so the short spike started above the 13 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.3225 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the R2 Mid Pivot at about 3.3300 with about 15 ticks. If you are a bit more savvy, knowing the bullish results and the propensity for a 2nd peak, stay in and wait until it hits the R2 Pivot for another 14 ticks, or when the 13 SMA crosses the 20 SMA / MACD crosses for another 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it stepped higher twice to hit a final peak of 52 ticks on the :00 bar about halfway between the R2 Pivot and R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for a protracted 22 ticks in about 30 min back to the 50 SMA. After that it traded sideways.

HG 09-13 (1 Min) 07.23.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, Uncategorized Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual:47.7
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 48.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1975
1st Peak @ 3.1835 – 2147 (2 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1730 – 2153 (8 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 3.1805 – 2157 (12 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision with a reading substantially below 50. This caused a short spike of 28 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar at the S1 Pivot after crossing the 50 SMA close to the origin. The market had been trending lower for about 2 hours before the report with the SMAs falling, so the short spike started as it was struggling with the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1935 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S1 Mid Pivot at about 3.1865 with about 14 ticks or if you were patient and know the report peaks later, go for about 20 or so ticks. After the 1st peak, it briefly stalled, then continued lower for another 21 ticks in the next 6 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in 4 min, nearly reaching the 20 SMA.

HG 07-13 (1 Min) 06.19.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 092013

6/19/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 49.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1195
1st Peak @ 3.1110 – 2147 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1035 – 2151 (6 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 3.1130 – 2200 (15 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision with a reading substantially below 50. This caused a relatively small short spike of 17 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar. The market had been trading sideways for about an hour before the report with the SMAs consolidating, so the short spike started on the 100/200 SMAs then fell to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1160 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S2 Mid Pivot at about 3.1100 with about 12 ticks. After the 1st peak, it chopped for a few min, then dove for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in the next 2 min, extending the LOD 9 ticks lower. Then it reversed for 19 ticks in 9 min, eclipsing the 20 SMA.

HG 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/22/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.4
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 3.3325
1st Peak @ 3.3165 – 2147 (2 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 3.3250 – 2153 (8 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2985 – 2227 (42 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 3.3160 – 2236 (51 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report mildly disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision, but the reading below 50 accelerated the disappointment. This caused a short spike of 32 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar. The market had been trending lower for about an hour before the report below the SMAs, but had been correcting for 30 min, so the short spike was able to use the 13 / 20 SMAs as resistance to propel the fall and bottomed below the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.3295 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit near the S3 Mid Pivot at about 3.3220 with about 15 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 17 ticks back to the 13 SMA, then continued a steady fall for the next 30 min to the S3 Pivot for 68 ticks. After that it reversed for 35 ticks in 9 min, eclipsing the 50 SMA. Then it traded sideways.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.22.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 092013

4/22/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 50.5
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 51.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0213
1st Peak @ 1.0188 – 2147 (2 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0180 – 2203 (18 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0192 – 2227 (32 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report mildly disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 25 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending slightly lower before the report below the SMAs for the most part, so the short spike was able to use the 100 / 50 SMAs as resistance to propel the fall and bottomed at the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0206 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit on the S2 Mid Pivot at about 1.0188 on the :48 bar with about 18 ticks. After the 1st peak, it was able to fall for another 8 ticks for a 2nd peak, then chopped sideways and eventually rallied to eclipse the 50 SMA for 12 ticks about 15 min after the 2nd peak. Then it chopped sideways between the LOD and 1.0192.

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