6A 06-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

 Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6A 06-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015
Apr 112015
 

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 3_31_2015 HG 05-15 (1 Min) 3_31_2015

3/31/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7600 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.7618 – 2100:58 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7611 – 2103 (4 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7635 – 2011 (12 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.7615 – 2120 (21 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7607 – 2143 (44 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.4% to cause a 18 tick long spike that started on the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot. As usual it released about 15 sec early. With JOBB you would have been filled long at 0.7605 with no slippage then been able to exit with 12 ticks as it hovered at the high point for several seconds late in the :01 bar. After that it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks as it crossed the R2 Pivot in the next 8 min. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 9 min to the 13/20 SMAs and another 8 ticks in the next 23 min to the R1 Pivot.

We advised a delayed approach on the HG 05-15. It would have been safe on the initial reaction, but jumping in long at the beginning of the :02 bar would have been safe for 24 ticks in 5 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

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May 032015
 

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4_30_2015

4/30/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7872 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.7882 – 2100:24 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7875 – 2100:33 (2 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7866 – 2115 (16 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast as it exceeded by only 0.1% to cause a 10 tick long spike that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the PP Pivot. As usual it released about 13 sec early. With JOBB you would have been filled long at 0.7878 with 1 tick of slippage then been seen it reach the 200 SMA and hover for 4 sec before reversing. Due to the matching forecast and apparent barrier reached at the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, look to exit there with 3-4 ticks. It reversed just after that for 7 ticks, then fell another 9 ticks in the next 14 min to nearly reach the LOD. If you did not exit before the reversal, you would have been able to exit at 0.7875 with a 3 tick loss.

We advised a delayed approach on the HG 07-15, but due to the matching forecast, this would have disqualified that approach.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.31.2015

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Jun 092015
 

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5_31_2015

5/31/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.7642 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.7638 – 2059:03 (2 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and was released about 1:45 min early. This resulted in a 4 tick short move in about 1 min. No matter when the software was set to activate, this would not have filled with a 5 tick bracket, so cancel the order with no discernible movement other than noise no later than 21:30:15.
We advised a delayed approach on the HG 07-15, but due to the matching forecast, this would have disqualified that approach.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

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Jul 262015
 

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 6_30_2015

6/30/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7672 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.7687 – 2059:59 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.7668 – 2100:08 (2 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.7679 – 2100:21 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7665 – 2101:25 (3 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 0.7685 – 2111 (12 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.3% to cause a 15 tick long spike that started on the OOD and rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs and reach the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing. It released about 5 sec early. With JOBB you would have been filled long at 0.7678 with 1 tick of slippage then been seen it quickly garner 10 ticks before reversing. A profit target of 11 ticks or less would have filled and been prudent as it reversed strongly and quickly to the origin and slightly beyond for 19 ticks in 9 sec. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 13 sec before reversing 16 ticks in 1 min. Then it pulled back 20 ticks in 9 min.

We advised a delayed approach on the HG 09-15, but due to the near matching results, this would have disqualified that approach.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.31.2013

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Dec 012013
 

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10_31_2013

10/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9434 (2056)
1st Peak @ 0.9445 – 2057 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9438 – 2058 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9452 – 2105 (9 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9432 – 2121 (25 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast to offer little stimulus to the market and was released at 2055:49 (about 4 min early) making it impossible to trade. This caused a small long move of 11 ticks that eclipsed the HOD on the :57 bar. Even though the report was premature, with near matching results, and a breakout long, we can expect a good reversal. After the peak, it backed off briefly then continued to reach the PP Pivot for another 7 ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 16 min back to the 200 SMA and the OOD. After that it rebounded and rode the 50/100 SMAs slightly higher.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.30.2013

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Dec 012013
 

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9_30_2013

9/30/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 51.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9258 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.9242 – 2100 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9282 – 2107 (9 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5 points to mildly disappoint traders. This caused a short move that move came at 2059:39. The 5 tick bracket would have been safe to remain in wait for the :59 and :00 bars. The short spike crossed the S2 Pivot and terminated 4 ticks above the S3 Mid Pivot for 16 ticks, then reversed quickly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9251 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall for 9 ticks in a few sec, and pullback after 7 sec. Look to exit with a handful of ticks before it surrenders the gain. After the peak, it continued to reverse for 40 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 7 min. The final burst to pop through the 200 SMA could not sustain and left 10 ticks on the wick naked. After that it traded sideways for the next 20 min close to the 200 SMA until the AUS Retail Sales report broke at 2130.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 7.31.2013

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Sep 292013
 

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 7_31_2013

7/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.8870 (2057)
1st Peak @ 0.8913 – 2059 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.8881 – 2108 (11 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Unfortunately this report was released 2 min early making it impossible to trade. With only a 0.5 positive delta, it caused the 6A to rally long for 43 ticks in 2 bars, starting on the S1 Pivot, and crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. It extended the HOD nearly 30 ticks. Then after such a large reaction, it fell back down to earth on the following 9 bars to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and nick the 50 SMA for 32 ticks. Even though the reaction came early, this would have been a good setup to trade the reversal with such a large spike. After the reversal, it chopped sideways for a while in between the PP Pivot and the SMAs, then eventually settled above the S1 Pivot. The HG would have been safe to trade by framing the 2100 bar in retrospect, but with the early release, it would also be wise to sit it out.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 6.30.2013

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Jul 192013
 

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 6_30_2013

6/30/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9088 (2059)
Fake Spike @ 0.9084 – 2100 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.9114 – 2107 (8 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9097 – 2146 (47 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9125 – 2158 (59 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 0.9114 – 2235 (96 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Matching report did little to impulse the traders initially. It looks like the 4 tick short move was premature/fake . If we had expanded the bracket to 5 ticks, this would have fit the mold of a dull reaction, not causing a fill on the :00 or :01 bars. The initial drop crossed the 200 SMA and hit the S1 Mid Pivot, then popped back up due to the strong support. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9084 with no slippage. There was opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks loss, but due to the dull reaction, leaving the stop at 10 ticks just long of the 100 SMA would be safe too. It would have been hit on the :02 bar as it steadily climbed for 7 min to a 1st peak of 26 ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 40 min, eclipsing the 100 SMA before rallying for a 2nd peak of 37 ticks 12 min later. Crossing the PP Pivot was too much as it reversed back 11 ticks in about 30 min then traded sideways as volume dried up. Due to the matching results, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.30.2013

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May 082013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4_30_2013

4/30/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast:  50.8
Actual: 50.6
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0340
1st Peak @ 1.0333 – 2101 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0346 – 2119 (19 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report did little to impulse the traders.  This caused a short spike of only 7 ticks that bottomed on the :01 bar. It crossed all 3 of the major SMAs on the small spike and bottomed on the R2 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA.  The market had been trending slightly higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0335 with 1 tick of slippage.  Then you would have seen the typical dull behavior where it hovered between 1.0333 and 1.0337 for the next 2 min.  Look to exit at Breakeven +/- 1 tick.  After the 1st peak, it slowly reversed for only 13 ticks using the recently crossed support barriers to rebound in thin trading volume.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.31.2013

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May 082013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4_1_2013

3/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast:  51.6
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0352
1st Peak @ 1.0328 – 2106 (6 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.0342 – 2229 (83 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Mildly negative report disappointed the traders.  This caused a short spike of 24 ticks that bottomed on the :06 bar. It used all 3 of the major SMAs at the origin as resistance then crossed the S1 Pivot, eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot and could go no lower.  The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0347 with 2 ticks of slippage.  Keep an eye on how if interacts with the S1 Pivot.  The :03 bar was able to settle below it decisively, so then look to exit at about 1.0330 with 17 ticks.  After the 1st peak, it stayed within a few ticks of the S1 Mid Pivot for about 30 min, then reversed to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs and eventually eclipse the S1 Pivot for 14 ticks.  Volume was lower than normal due to the Easter Monday Holiday, but it was still a safe trade.

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