CNY Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

HG 09-13 (1 Min) 8.21.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 222013

8/21/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.3
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.3185
1st Peak @ 3.3330 – 2146 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 3.3275 – 2147 (2 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.3445 – 2200 (15 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 3.3335 – 2228 (43 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with no previous report revision with a reading barely above 50. This caused a long spike of 29 ticks that eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot and sustained most of the advance on the :46 bar. The market had been trending higher for about an hour before the report with the SMAs rising, so the short spike started above the 13 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.3225 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the R2 Mid Pivot at about 3.3300 with about 15 ticks. If you are a bit more savvy, knowing the bullish results and the propensity for a 2nd peak, stay in and wait until it hits the R2 Pivot for another 14 ticks, or when the 13 SMA crosses the 20 SMA / MACD crosses for another 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it stepped higher twice to hit a final peak of 52 ticks on the :00 bar about halfway between the R2 Pivot and R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for a protracted 22 ticks in about 30 min back to the 50 SMA. After that it traded sideways.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 7.31.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 292013

7/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.8870 (2057)
1st Peak @ 0.8913 – 2059 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.8881 – 2108 (11 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Unfortunately this report was released 2 min early making it impossible to trade. With only a 0.5 positive delta, it caused the 6A to rally long for 43 ticks in 2 bars, starting on the S1 Pivot, and crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. It extended the HOD nearly 30 ticks. Then after such a large reaction, it fell back down to earth on the following 9 bars to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and nick the 50 SMA for 32 ticks. Even though the reaction came early, this would have been a good setup to trade the reversal with such a large spike. After the reversal, it chopped sideways for a while in between the PP Pivot and the SMAs, then eventually settled above the S1 Pivot. The HG would have been safe to trade by framing the 2100 bar in retrospect, but with the early release, it would also be wise to sit it out.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 07.15.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/14/2013 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EST)
Forecast: 7.7%
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.9059 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 0.9067 – 2200 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9042 – 2201 (2 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Negative report disappointed the traders, but saw a strange market reaction. The market had been trading mostly sideways in a tame manner up until the :58 bar when we saw a 30+ tick rally in 2 min. This was a trigger to cancel the order. The news released on time at 21:59:20, causing an 8 tick long spike that hovered with a small gain until the :01 bar fell for 22 ticks, but retreated back. It continued chopping sideways between 0.9042 and 0.9070 for about 30 min, then settled down to ride the 50 SMA for a while. If you had not cancelled the order, with JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9063 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 2-3 ticks as the :00 bar wore on. The premature move, then the inability to fall after disappointing results is strange. Due to the conditions, do not look for a follow on trade on the HG.

HG 09-13 (1 Min) 07.23.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, Uncategorized Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.6
Actual:47.7
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 48.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1975
1st Peak @ 3.1835 – 2147 (2 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1730 – 2153 (8 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 3.1805 – 2157 (12 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision with a reading substantially below 50. This caused a short spike of 28 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar at the S1 Pivot after crossing the 50 SMA close to the origin. The market had been trending lower for about 2 hours before the report with the SMAs falling, so the short spike started as it was struggling with the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1935 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S1 Mid Pivot at about 3.1865 with about 14 ticks or if you were patient and know the report peaks later, go for about 20 or so ticks. After the 1st peak, it briefly stalled, then continued lower for another 21 ticks in the next 6 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in 4 min, nearly reaching the 20 SMA.

HG 07-13 (1 Min) 06.19.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 092013

6/19/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 49.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1195
1st Peak @ 3.1110 – 2147 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1035 – 2151 (6 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 3.1130 – 2200 (15 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision with a reading substantially below 50. This caused a relatively small short spike of 17 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar. The market had been trading sideways for about an hour before the report with the SMAs consolidating, so the short spike started on the 100/200 SMAs then fell to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1160 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S2 Mid Pivot at about 3.1100 with about 12 ticks. After the 1st peak, it chopped for a few min, then dove for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in the next 2 min, extending the LOD 9 ticks lower. Then it reversed for 19 ticks in 9 min, eclipsing the 20 SMA.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 6.30.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/30/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9088 (2059)
Fake Spike @ 0.9084 – 2100 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.9114 – 2107 (8 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9097 – 2146 (47 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9125 – 2158 (59 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 0.9114 – 2235 (96 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Matching report did little to impulse the traders initially. It looks like the 4 tick short move was premature/fake . If we had expanded the bracket to 5 ticks, this would have fit the mold of a dull reaction, not causing a fill on the :00 or :01 bars. The initial drop crossed the 200 SMA and hit the S1 Mid Pivot, then popped back up due to the strong support. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9084 with no slippage. There was opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks loss, but due to the dull reaction, leaving the stop at 10 ticks just long of the 100 SMA would be safe too. It would have been hit on the :02 bar as it steadily climbed for 7 min to a 1st peak of 26 ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 40 min, eclipsing the 100 SMA before rallying for a 2nd peak of 37 ticks 12 min later. Crossing the PP Pivot was too much as it reversed back 11 ticks in about 30 min then traded sideways as volume dried up. Due to the matching results, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

HG 07-13 (1 Min) 5.22.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 022013

5/22/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.4
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 3.3325
1st Peak @ 3.3165 – 2147 (2 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 3.3250 – 2153 (8 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2985 – 2227 (42 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 3.3160 – 2236 (51 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report mildly disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision, but the reading below 50 accelerated the disappointment. This caused a short spike of 32 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar. The market had been trending lower for about an hour before the report below the SMAs, but had been correcting for 30 min, so the short spike was able to use the 13 / 20 SMAs as resistance to propel the fall and bottomed below the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.3295 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit near the S3 Mid Pivot at about 3.3220 with about 15 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 17 ticks back to the 13 SMA, then continued a steady fall for the next 30 min to the S3 Pivot for 68 ticks. After that it reversed for 35 ticks in 9 min, eclipsing the 50 SMA. Then it traded sideways.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.14.2013

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

May 092013

4/14/2013 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EST)
Forecast: 8.0%
Actual: 7.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0435 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 1.0410 – 2202 (3 min)
25 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0367 – 2331 (92 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 1.0390 – 0018 (139 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report disappointed the traders. The market had initiated a dramatic selloff about 30 min before the report, dropping 35 ticks prior to news. Then there was a minor long retracement before the news hit. This caused a short spike of 25 ticks that peaked on the :02 bar, eclipsing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it continued into a downward fan, eventually touching the S3 Mid Pivot about 90 min later for a total of 68 ticks. With JOBB, do to the incorrect activation time of xx:59:00 you would have filled long at 1.0435 with no slippage, then been stopped with a 5 tick loss. We now recognize that the news breaks at xx:59:20, so an activation at xx:59:17 would have filled short at 1.0430 with no slippage. You could have exited with 13-20 ticks on the :01-:02 bars. As this is a quarterly report and largely disappointing, it kept a bearish market intact for about 90 min. The final reversal reclaimed 23 ticks about 45 min after the final peak.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.22.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 092013

4/22/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 50.5
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 51.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0213
1st Peak @ 1.0188 – 2147 (2 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0180 – 2203 (18 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0192 – 2227 (32 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report mildly disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 25 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending slightly lower before the report below the SMAs for the most part, so the short spike was able to use the 100 / 50 SMAs as resistance to propel the fall and bottomed at the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0206 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit on the S2 Mid Pivot at about 1.0188 on the :48 bar with about 18 ticks. After the 1st peak, it was able to fall for another 8 ticks for a 2nd peak, then chopped sideways and eventually rallied to eclipse the 50 SMA for 12 ticks about 15 min after the 2nd peak. Then it chopped sideways between the LOD and 1.0192.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.20.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 092013

3/20/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 51.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0309
1st Peak @ 1.0323 – 2146 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0308 – 2235 (50 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, with no previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 14 ticks that peaked on the :46 bar. The market had been trading sideways before the report above the SMAs for the most part, so the long spike was able to go up without much resistance. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0317 with 4 ticks of slippage. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks on the :47. After pulling back to the 13 SMA, it attempted a 2nd peak but only achieved a double top. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 35 min back to eclipse the 200 SMA.

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