CNY Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.24.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

2/24/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 52.2
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.3
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0279
1st Peak @ 1.0246 – 2051 (6 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0258 – 2122 (37 min)
12 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0270 – 0012 (207 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a moderate positive previous report upward revision. This caused a short spike of 33 ticks (30 on the :46 bar) that peaked on the :51 bar. The market had been trending slightly lower before the report, but had begun to correct, so the short spike was able to use the 100 and 50 SMAs near the origin more as resistance to accelerate the short move. Then it crossed the S2 Pivot and bottomed at 1.0246. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0465 with abnormally high 10 ticks of slippage. Look to exit around 1.0250 where it hovered as the :46 bar was expiring. It then reversed for 12 ticks in the next 30 min back to the 50 SMA. After trending sideways and struggling to reverse through the SMAs, it eventually achieved 24 ticks about 3.5 hrs after the report.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1.23.2013

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

1/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 51.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0485
1st Peak @ 1.0495 – 2047 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0481 – 2054 (9 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0508 – 2126 (41 min)
23 ticks

Final Reversal to 1.0468 – 0003 (198 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a moderate positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of only 10 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending lower before the report, but had begun to correct, so the long spike hit the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot and could go no higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0489 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit just above the 200 SMA with 4-5 ticks. It then reversed for 14 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 100 / 50 SMAs, before ascending for a slower and bigger 2nd peak of 23 ticks 30 min later, eclipsing the PP Pivot. The final reversal saw a fall of 40 ticks in about 2.5 hrs.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.30.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

4/30/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual: 50.6
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0340
1st Peak @ 1.0333 – 2101 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0346 – 2119 (19 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report did little to impulse the traders. This caused a short spike of only 7 ticks that bottomed on the :01 bar. It crossed all 3 of the major SMAs on the small spike and bottomed on the R2 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA. The market had been trending slightly higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0335 with 1 tick of slippage. Then you would have seen the typical dull behavior where it hovered between 1.0333 and 1.0337 for the next 2 min. Look to exit at Breakeven +/- 1 tick. After the 1st peak, it slowly reversed for only 13 ticks using the recently crossed support barriers to rebound in thin trading volume.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.31.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

3/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0352
1st Peak @ 1.0328 – 2106 (6 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.0342 – 2229 (83 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Mildly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 24 ticks that bottomed on the :06 bar. It used all 3 of the major SMAs at the origin as resistance then crossed the S1 Pivot, eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot and could go no lower. The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0347 with 2 ticks of slippage. Keep an eye on how if interacts with the S1 Pivot. The :03 bar was able to settle below it decisively, so then look to exit at about 1.0330 with 17 ticks. After the 1st peak, it stayed within a few ticks of the S1 Mid Pivot for about 30 min, then reversed to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs and eventually eclipse the S1 Pivot for 14 ticks. Volume was lower than normal due to the Easter Monday Holiday, but it was still a safe trade.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.28.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

2/28/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0206 (1959)
1st Peak @ 1.0193 – 2001 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0220 – 2122 (83 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report was released 1 min early. Mildly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a small short spike of 13 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar. It used the major SMAs at the origin as resistance then crossed the S1 Pivot and ran out of gas. The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have seen the premature move. You could either cancel the order, or if you let it play out, you would have filled short at 1.0195 with no slippage. Look to exit near the S1 with 1 or 2 ticks loss. After the 1st peak, it stayed between 1.0202 and 1.0195 at the S1 Pivot for about 25 min before it eventually broke out long for the reversal which achieved 27 ticks in 83 min.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

1/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0402
1st Peak @ 1.0376 – 2003 (3 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0366 – 2035 (35 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0387 – 2047 (47 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a healthy short spike of 26 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar, crossing the 100/200 SMAs and R1 Pivot near the origin and eclipsing the PP Pivot near the bottom. The market had been trending slightly higher before the report in the last 60 min, and started to correct. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0396 with 2 ticks of slippage, then if you were patient, you would have had an opportunity to exit with 16+ ticks as it bottomed below the PP Pivot. After the 1st peak, it continued lower slowly gaining 10 more ticks in about 30 min. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 12 min, mostly on the :46 bar. After that it continued lower, then traded sideways between the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA.

6A 03 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jan 172013

1/17/2013 CNY Quarterly GDP (2100 EST)
Forecast: 7.8%
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPike/reverse
Started @ 1.0500
1st Peak @ 1.0514 – 2101 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0467 – 2137 (37 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report impressed the traders. This caused a long spike of 14 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot and peaking 3 ticks higher. The market had been trending higher in the previous several hours and was in an overbought mood for the long term. This made the spike unsustainable as the HOD was extended and the R1 Pivot was hit. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0505 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 7-8 ticks in the middle of the :01 bar before it reversed and fell. After the peak, the reversal reclaimed 24 ticks in 10 min, then stalled for a few min, then fell another 23 ticks in 5 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot and bottom out at 1.0467.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 01.16.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Dec 312012

1/16/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2100 EST)
Forecast: 8.7%
Actual: 8.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPike/reverse
Started @ 1.0005 (1559)
1st Peak @ 1.0021 – 1601 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.0003 – 1621 (22 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Results released 1 min early, so spike moved at 15:59:00. Moderately positive report impressed the traders. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossing the R2 Pivot near the origin. The market had been trending higher prior to the report, but ran into resistance at the R2 Pivot. This made the rally unsustainable as the HOD was extended. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0010 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 7-8 ticks in the middle of the :01 bar before it reversed and fell. After the peak, the reversal reclaimed 18 ticks in 20 min, then it rallied for a double top 41 min after the report. The stepping rally continued for hours after the report, but likely due to other factors.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 212012

11/21/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1545 HI time / 2045 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.5
Spike / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0367
1st Peak @ 1.0383 – 1547 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.0368 – 1557 (12 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a moderate positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending higher before the report, so no SMAs were crossed, and the R2 Pivot was just below the start point. With JOBB on a 4 tick bracket you would have filled long with no slippage at 1.0371, then had an opportunity to exit at about 1.0380 for 9 ticks max. The reversal took over quickly, nearly surrendering the entire gain in 12 min.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.31.12

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 312012

10/31/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0345
1st Peak @ 1.0337 – 1507 (7 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0319 – 1532 (32 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.0339 – 1551 (51 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report disappointed the traders. This caused a small short spike of 8 ticks that peaked on the :07 bar, crossing the 100 SMA and eclipsing the 200 SMA. The market had been trending higher before the report in the last 60 min, and started to correct. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0341 with no slippage, then if you were patient had an opportunity to exit with 2-4 ticks as it peaked below the 200 SMA. After it was able to successfully cross the 200 SMA, it achieved a 2nd peak of 26 ticks about 25 min later, eclipsing the S1 Pivot. The reversal yielded 20 ticks in about 20 min after the 2nd peak, rebounding to cross the 50 SMA then eclipse the 200 / 100 SMAs on top of each other.

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