6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.23.2015

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Dec 222015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_23_2015

11/23/2015 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 50.7
Actual: 50.8
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.6
Services PMI
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.3
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 52.7
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0627
1st Peak @ 1.0619 – 0300:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0634 – 0300:22 (1 min)
15 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.0640 – 0309 (9 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 1.0627 – 0312 (12 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0623 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.0628 – stopped 5 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching reaction caused a whipsaw. It still allowed a great short trade at the 200 SMA at 0309.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.22.2016

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Feb 072016
 

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_22_2016

1/22/2016 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 50.0
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 51.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 50.6
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 49.8
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.0845
1st Peak @ 1.0841 – 0300:02 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.0853 – 0305 (5 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 1.0839 – 0311 (11 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0842 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0842 – breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0837 (just above the 50 SMA)

Notes: Offset should have been sufficient cause for a good spike, but several layers of support prevented follow through. Look to exit at breakeven after the 100 SMA held.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

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Jan 312014
 

6E 03-14 (1 Min)  1_23_2014

1/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 47.6
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 47.0
Services PMI
Forecast: 48.2
Actual: 48.6
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 47.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3573 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3603 – 0259 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1.3586 – 0300 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3610 – 0314 (16 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 1.3597 – 0320 (22 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast to impress with a negligible downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.4 points above the forecast with a moderate upward revision. All of this served to cause a healthy and slightly volatile long spike of 30 ticks on the :59 bar that started on the 13 SMA, crossed the R2 Mid Pivot, and extended the HOD. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3581 with 5 ticks of slippage then seen hover between 5 and 13 ticks of profit for the rest of the bar after it burst immediately to hit the R2 Pivot, then backed off leaving a naked wick. A profit target of 15 ticks would have filled, but if you were looking for an exit later in the bar, try the 1.3593 area for about 12 ticks. This would have filled on the :59 or :01 bars. After the reversal was mostly achieved on the :59 bar, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks on the :14 bar. Notice it never even touched the 13 or 20 SMAs until the post 2nd peak reversal fell for 13 ticks in 6 min. Then it traded sideways before heading into the German report.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  11_21_2013

11/21/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 49.1
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.3
Actual: 48.8
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 50.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3429 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3403 – 0259 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3410 – 0300 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3400 – 0304 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.3413 – 0324 (26 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast to disappoint with a small downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 2.5 points below the forecast with a moderate upward revision. All of this served to cause a healthy and slightly volatile short spike of 26 ticks on the :59 bar that crossed the 200 SMA, S1 Mid Pivot, and LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3418 with an abnormally high 8 ticks of slippage then seen hover between 9 and 14 ticks of profit for the rest of the bar. Look to exit with about 10-12 ticks. After the initial move, it retreated 7 ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed slowly for 13 ticks in the next 20 min before heading into the German report.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.24.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  10_24_2013

10/24/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.4
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 49.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 51.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3817 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3807 – 0259 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3812 – 0301 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3792 – 0328 (30 min)
25 ticks

No Reversal due to German report

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint with a small upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous services reading came in 1 point below the forecast with a small upward revision. All of this served to cause a bearish situation with a 10 tick short move on the :59 bar that started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the R2 Mid Pivot and hit the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3810 with 4 ticks of slippage then seen it hover around the R2 Mid Pivot. Look To exit near break even with the 100 SMA holding and the R2 Mid Pivot also acting as strong support. After the :59 bar, it drifted sideways on the 100 SMA for about 15 min before falling on a slow developing 2nd peak of 15 more ticks as it crossed the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA with ease. There was no reversal as the 2nd peak transitioned into the bearish results of the German report.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 9.23.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  9_23_2013

9/23/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 49.5
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 50.7
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 48.9
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3537 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3545 – 0259 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3535 – 0304 (6 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3546 – 0311 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.3537 – 0321 (23 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint with no revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast with a large bullish revision. All of this served to offset and caused a muted and shortly sustained long spike of only 8 ticks, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then coming back down to surrender the entire gain. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3543 with 3 ticks of slippage then seen it fall back to hit your stop loss after 3 sec for a 5 tick loss. With the conflicting news, this is a normal, if a tame result. After the :59 bar closed at the origin, it climbed for a 1 tick additional 2nd peak, then reversed for 9 ticks. The HOD and 200 SMA kept it fenced in as they were never approached as it straddled the OOD. Then it moved slightly higher as it headed into the German report.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.22.2013

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Oct 242013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  8_22_2013

8/22/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 49.7
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 47.7
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 48.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3353 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3335 – 0259 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3322 – 0305 (7 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1.3334 – 0312 (14 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint with a negligible bearish revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.6 points below the forecast with a small bullish revision. With the overall sentiment solidly bearish, the report provided a healthy short spike for 18 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3346 with 4 ticks of slippage then seen it hover below the 200 SMA at about 1.3340 for 12 sec. That would be a safe exit, but it would also be okay to wait it out for at least crossing the LOD for about 15 ticks. It kept stepping lower to a final peak of 31 ticks after 7 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 13 SMA, before trading sideways into the German report.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 07.24.2013

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Aug 092013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  7_24_2013

7/24/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 48.9
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 48.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 47.7
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: +0.7 to 47.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3207 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3225 – 0259 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.3211 – 0309 (11 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points above the forecast to moderately impress with a negligible bullish revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.6 points above the forecast with a decent bullish revision. The report provided a healthy spike, but it was accompanied by unusually high slippage as it crossed the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot for 18 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3217 with 7 ticks of slippage then seen it struggle with the PP Pivot. If you moved your stop loss to about -6 ticks and brought in the profit target to 4-6 ticks, you would have walked away with a winner. The reversal reclaimed 14 ticks in the next 10 min, back to the 20 SMA. Then it popped up a few ticks and traded sideways in a tight range before the German report broke.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

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Jul 142013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  6_20_2013

6/20/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 47.1
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: +0.9 to 46.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 45.0
Actual: 46.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.3243 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3270 – 0259 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.3248 – 0259 (1 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast to moderately impress with a healthy bullish revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast. The report was a perfect setup for a sustainable long reaction, but the hangover from the FED decision from 12 hrs earlier to announce a scale back of QE3 later this year had drastic impact to currency markets. The 6E had fallen over 160 ticks and was routinely extending the LOD. When the news came in bullish, there were no sellers to fulfill our long stops, so we saw excessive slippage. It spiked long for 27 ticks eclipsing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed and fell 22 ticks, eclipsing the 20 SMA in the next 30 sec. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3264 with 18+ ticks of slippage then stopped out with a 5 tick loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it chopped sideways, then attempted a 2nd peak, but could only get within 1 tick of the 1st peak. Then it settled into the SMAs before the German report broke. While this report was a loser, the market conditions can be attributed to the FED and it should return to normal next time.

6E 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.2013

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Jun 042013
 

6E 06-13 (1 Min)  5_23_2013

5/23/2013 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 44.8
Actual: 45.5
Previous Revision: n/a
Services PMI
Forecast: 44.7
Actual: 44.3
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 44.3
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.2840 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.2853 – 0259 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.2836 – 0259 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2869 – 0325 (27 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to mildly impress, but the simultaneous Services reading came in 0.4 points worse than the forecast. This caused an indecisive reaction due to the offsetting results. It spiked long for 13 ticks eclipsing the 200 SMA and OOD, then reversed and fell 17 ticks to the 50 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2845 with 2 ticks of slippage then stopped out with a 5 tick loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it never went lower, and eventually rallied above the 200 SMA for 29 ticks from the origin 27 min after the report and just before the German report broke. No final reversal as it stuck the 2nd peak going into the German report. Due to the nature of this report, even a bad report only results in a 5 tick loss.