6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9.24.2015

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Dec 182015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 9_24_2015

9/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.8
Actual: 108.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 108.4
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.1227
1st Peak @ 1.1233 – 0400:07 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1225 – 0400:48 (1 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1238 – 0401:40 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.11198 – 0422 (22 min)
40 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1231 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1231 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1240 (above the HOD)

Notes: Small reaction that recoiled due to the strong resistance of the HOD. This was also indicated by the large reversal after the 2nd peak.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10.26.2015

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Dec 182015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 10_26_2015

10/26/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.1
Actual: 108.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1047
1st Peak @ 1.1041 – 0401:04 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 1.1064 – 0411 (11 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Near matching report caused no movement for 41 sec, then a 6 tick drop. Cancel the order.

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11.24.2015

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Dec 182015
 

6E 12-15 (1 Min) 11_24_2015

11/24/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.3
Actual: 109.0
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 108.4
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0662
1st Peak @ 1.0674 – 0400:13 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0660 – 0405 (5 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.0667 – 0409 (9 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.0638 – 0513 (73 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.0666 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.0673 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.0677 (above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower after the market hovered.

Notes: Average reaction that could not breakout above the HOD / R2 Mid Pivot resistance. Strong reversal due to the long run prior to the report.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12.17.2015

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Dec 182015
 

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 12_17_2015

12/17/2015 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 109.2
Actual: 108.7
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.0894
1st Peak @ 1.0889 – 0401:03 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 1.0905 – 0408 (8 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 1.0891 – 0420 (20 min)
14 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Report caused no movement for 41 sec, then a 5 tick drop. Cancel the order. Good reversal to trade as usual for 10+ ticks.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.25.2016

 German lfo Business Climate  Comments Off on FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1.25.2016
Jan 272016
 

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 1_25_2016

1/25/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 108.5
Actual: 107.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 108.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9752.0
1st Peak @ 9745.5 – 0400:13 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 9753.0 – 0400:36 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9708.5 – 0404 (4 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 9750.0 – 0411 (11 min)
83 ticks

Expected Fill: 9748.5
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 9746.5 (4 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9735.00 area (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report caused a small initial move that recoiled, then a large and quick 2nd peak. Since almost every report has yielded a 2nd peak, and the initial spike was very anemic with a nice offset, stay in and be patient for a larger move. After the 2nd peak, due to the extension of the LOD it reversed nicely.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 1.27.2014

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Feb 082014
 

6E 03-14 (1 Min)  1_27_2014

1/27/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 110.2
Actual: 110.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3697
1st Peak @ 1.3707 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3693 – 0408 (8 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3717 – 0421 (21 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.3692 – 0436 (36 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3667 – 0607 (127 min)
50 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.4 points above the forecast and continues to remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small decisive and stable spike of 10 ticks that peaked early on the :02 bar as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3702 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture just a few ticks as it hovered around 1.3703 for most of the bar, then made a quick pop late in the bar up to 1.3707. With the narrow offset and price action stalling below the R2 Pivot, do not get too greedy on this one. After the peak, it reversed for 14 ticks in 7 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks 13 min later after crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed slowly and deliberately, recapturing 25 ticks in 15 min, and another 25 ticks in the next 90 min.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 11.22.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  11_22_2013

11/22/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.9
Actual: 109.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3495
1st Peak @ 1.3529 – 0402 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.3512 – 0405 (5 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 1.4 points above the forecast and the highest reading in multiple years. This caused a large decisive and stable spike of 34 ticks that peaked early on the :02 bar as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3502 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture at least 20 ticks with ease or more if you waited into the :02 bar. After the peak, it reversed for 17 ticks in 3 min back to the R1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways for at least an hour, using the R1 Pivot as its floor.

6E 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  10_25_2013

10/25/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.2
Actual: 107.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3826
1st Peak @ 1.3812 – 0401 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3824 – 0417 (17 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3809 – 0430 (30 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3826 – 0436 (36 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.8 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint the market. This caused a medium sized unsustainable short spike of 14 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar. Since it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot, it could not sustain the drop and left 8 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3819 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover between 2 and 6 ticks of profit as it hovered around the R1 Mid Pivot for 12 sec. Look to exit with 4-5 ticks when you see the hovering with the strong support barrier. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in 16 min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs. Then it achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks at the bottom of the hour, before reversing 17 ticks back to the R1 Pivot and the origin.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 9.24.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 12-13 (1 Min)  9_24_2013

9/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 108.4
Actual: 107.7
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 107.6
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3515
Fake Spike @ 1.3521 – 0401 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 1.3501 – 0401 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3509 – 0403 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3496 – 0406 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3512 – 0428 (28 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.7 points below the forecast to moderately disappoint the market. The news broke 16 sec late and caused a 6 tick fake spike long immediately before falling for the true spike of 14 ticks. The fake spike sought out the HOD then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.3520 or 21 with 0-1 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to hit your stop loss for 11 ticks with slippage. This is why the report is a Risk 3. After the peak, it reversed for 8 ticks in 2 min, before falling for 5 additional ticks on the 2nd peak as it hit the OOD. Then it reversed 16 ticks in the next 22 min back to the just below the R1 Mid Pivot.

6E 09-13 (1 Min) 8.27.2013

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Nov 242013
 

6E 09-13 (1 Min)  8_27_2013

8/27/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 107.1
Actual: 107.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.3378
1st Peak @ 1.3388 – 0401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3369 – 0405 (5 min)
19 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3323 – 0419 (19 min)
65 ticks

Notes: The reading came in slightly exceeding the forecast to mildly impress the market. This caused a a surprising reaction as it spiked long for 10 ticks, but then promptly reversed for a large and long developing reversal. The long move crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and ran out of gas as it fell from there. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3384 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit around 1.3387 for 3 ticks as it could not breakout long beyond the R1 Mid Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 19 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot, then with a minimal break in the action, continued falling for another 46 ticks in the next 14 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. After that it rebounded about 10 ticks and slowly trended upward.