6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.14.2014

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 12-14 (1 Min) 10.14.2014
Nov 032014
 

6E 12-14 (1 Min)  10_14_2014

10/14/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2
Actual: -3.6
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.2693 – shift to 1.2687 after downward drift
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2679 – 0500:20 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2683 – 0500:33 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.2674 – 0500:56 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.2682 – 0506 (6 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.2645 – 0554 (54 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.2666 – 0629 (89 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2677 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.2667 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.2696 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)/1.2704 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by modest margin of 3.8 points but was negative for the first time in 2 yrs. Your anchor point at 45 sec early would have setup at 1.2693, but it drifted down and hovered around the PP Pivot at 1.2687, so bias your orders about 5-6 ticks lower. As the report broke it did a head fake long for 5 ticks, then trickled lower to fall 8 ticks in 20 sec. Cancel the order due to the slow approach and falling short of the inner long entry by 2 ticks. It continued to step lower eventually falling 42 total ticks on the final peak after 54 min.

6E 12-14 (1 Min) 11.18.2014

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Dec 242014
 

6E 12-14 (1 Min)  11_18_2014

11/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.9
Actual: 11.5
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL (BREAKEVEN EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 1.2517 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2535 – 0500:08 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2529 – 0500:14 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.2543 – 0501:45 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.2517 – 0511 (11 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 1.2541 – 0519 (19 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.2515 – 0531 (31 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2507 (just above the 50 SMA) / 1.2498 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 1.2526 (No SMA/Pivot near)/1.2534 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a margin of 10.6 points. This caused a more decisive long spike than we usually see for 18 ticks initially that found resistance at the R2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries making an average short position at about 1.2530. You would have only seen a 6 tick reversal allow an exit near breakeven as the bar was expiring. It would have been safe to exit here with the strong reaction. If you stayed in and waited, you would have seen 13 ticks of heat after 2 min before it collapsed back to the 13 SMA in the next 3 min for 26 ticks allowing about 7 ticks (14 total ticks) to be captured. Again we can count on the delayed reversal even after taking heat. After the reversal, it pulled back 24 ticks to fall just short of a double top after 8 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 12 min to the 50 SMA.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.20.2015

 German Zew Economic Sentiment  Comments Off on 6E 03-15 (1 Min) 1.20.2015
Jan 282015
 

6E 03-15 (1 Min)  1_20_2015

1/20/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 40.1
Actual: 48.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.1612
1st Peak @ 1.1621 – 0500:09 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1600 – 0504 (4 min)
21 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.1593 – 0515 (15 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 8.3 points better than the forecast causing a stable long spike of only 9 ticks in 9 sec. It was prudent to have a 5 tick bracket as there was a 4 tick dip at the top of the hour before the spike that would have been contained. With JOBB, you long order would have filled at 1.1617 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 3 ticks at 1.1620 where it hovered for 15 sec in the middle of the bar just short of the PP Pivot. Then it fell for a 21 tick reversal in 3 min to the S1 Pivot and another 7 ticks in the next 11 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA. We shifted back to the Bracket routine for this report as we have been seeing more sustained reactions. But we still see strong and large reversals after the peak that are great trades too. After the reversal, it climbed for a double top in 27 min then fell again to end up lower in the aftermath.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 2.17.2015

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Mar 162015
 

6E 03-15 (1 Min)  2_17_20156E 03-15 (Second)  2_17_2015

2/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 55.4
Actual: 53.0
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1390
1st Bar Span: 1.1386 – 1.1394
+/- 4 ticks

1st Peak @ 1.1380 – 0503 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.1404 – 0521 (21 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 2.4 points below the forecast causing an unstable small whipsaw in the first 23 sec to bounce around but fortunately not trip the bracket as it did not breach 5 ticks from the origin until the :02 bar started. With JOBB, cancel the order on the dull and unstable move. It settled down to fall 10 ticks for a 1st peak on the :03 bar. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 18 min to reach the HOD.

6E 03-15 (1 Min) 3.17.2015

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Mar 262015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min)  3_17_2015

3/17/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 58.9
Actual: 54.8
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0621
1st Peak @ 1.0609 – 0600:03 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0627 – 0602 (2 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 1.0612 – 0611 (11 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 4.1 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 12 ticks in 3 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the 50 SMA before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.0616 with no slippage, then after it fell, look to exit at 10613 or 12 with 3-4 ticks where it hovered for 16 sec just below the R1 Mid Pivot. It reversed back to the origin later in the bar, then another 6 ticks to the HOD on the next bar. This is a unique report that is kind of between the trap trade and bracket trade. Here we see the Trap Trade would have probably worked out for a few more ticks, but other reports would have fared better as bracket trades. After the reversal, it pulled back 15 ticks in 11 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 50 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 4.21.2015

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Apr 262015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min)  4_21_2015

4/21/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 53.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0690
1st Peak @ 1.0699 – 0500:08 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0672 – 0507 (7 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0704 – 0531 (31 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0682 – 0618 (78 min)
22 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 2.3 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained long spike of 9 ticks in 8 sec that crossed the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA before reversing. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 1.0696 with 1 tick of slippage, then hovered 1-3 ticks in profit. Look to exit on the hovering or reverse the order as we know this report has a tendency to reverse quickly and strongly. Sure enough, it reversed 18 ticks in the next 6 min. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 24 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 47 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

6E 06-15 (1 Min) 5.19.2015

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May 232015
 

6E 06-15 (1 Min)  5_19_2015

Caption for 5/19:
5/19/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 48.8
Actual: 41.9
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1200
1st Peak @ 1.1185 – 0500:02 (1 min)
-15 ticks

Reversal to 1.1200 – 0503 (3 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.1192 – 0505 (5 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1214 – 0511 (11 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 1.1186 – 0530 (30 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The reading came in nearly 6 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 15 ticks in 2 sec that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reached the S3 Mid Pivot before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1193 with 2 ticks of slippage, then hit the bottom and reversed briefly. Then it fell and hovered to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured on the 50 SMA. After that it reversed to the origin in 2 min before pulling back 8 ticks in 2 min. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 6 min before pulling back 28 ticks in 19 min to cross the 100 SMA.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 6.16.2015

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Jul 022015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min)  6_16_2015

6/16/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 37.5
Actual: 31.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.1274
1st Peak @ 1.1262 – 0500:05 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.1277 – 0503 (3 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.1268 – 0507 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.1285 – 0510 (10 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.1269 – 0528 (28 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 6 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 12 ticks in 5 sec that nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1268 with 1 tick of slippage, then hit the bottom and backed off to hover between breakeven and 3 ticks profit. As this report often reverses quickly, it is advised to exit or reverse the trade at the first sign of hovering. So look to reverse at about 1.1266 with 2 ticks then exit above the PP Pivot at about 1.1276 for 10 more ticks on the reversal. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the old LOD position before reversing 17 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 18 min as it used the 50 SMA as resistance.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7.14.2015

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Sep 032015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 7_14_2015

Caption for 7/14:
7/14/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 30.6
Actual: 29.7
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.1038
1st Bar Span 1.1042 to 1.1034 – 0501 (1 min)
+/- 4 ticks

Notes: The reading came in less than 1 point worse than the forecast causing a quick pop for 4 ticks long followed by a reversal as it teetered on the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have been contained by the 5 tick bracket, so cancel the order. It continued to chop sideways for about 25 min before drifting lower to the PP Pivot.

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8.11.2015

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Sep 152015
 

6E 09-15 (1 Min) 8_11_2015

8/11/2015 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 31.7
Actual: 25.0
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.1043
1st Peak @ 1.1035 – 0500:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.1047 – 0500:41 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.1024 – 0519 (19 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.1040 – 0531 (31 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 6.7 points worse than the forecast causing a shortly sustained short spike of 8 ticks immediately that reached the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 1.1038 with no slippage, then hit the bottom and backed off to hover between 2-3 ticks in the red. Move the stop to about 4 ticks away and look to exit. It reversed 12 ticks in 41 sec as it crossed the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 12 min to the 100 SMA.