9/19/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 60B
Actual: 46B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.760 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.744 (1030)
16 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.820 – 1031 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 3.764 – 1034 (4 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.740 – 1100 (30 min)
80 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a premature short spike of 16 ticks followed immediately by the true long move of 60 ticks that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot, then retreated leaving 27 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.748 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it rally to hit your stop loss for a 36 tick loss with 16 ticks of slippage. The gain was short lived as it started reversing at 11 sec into the :31 bar. The reversal achieved 56 ticks in 3 min to return to the origin. Then after a brief pullback attempt, it achieved another 24 ticks to the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot on the extended reversal.

10/3/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 96B
Actual: 101B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.538 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.490 – 1031 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 3.549 – 1055 (25 min)
59 ticks

Pullback to 3.507 – 1128 (58 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 48 tick short spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the 50 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot near the origin then the S1 Pivot . With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.510 with about 18 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 15 ticks of profit and breakeven. With the S1 Pivot in the middle of the action, place a target just below there at about 3.497 which would have easily filled on multiple occasions. After the :31 bar, it reversed steadily for 59 ticks in the next 24 min beyond the origin, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Then it pulled back to an area just above the S1 Pivot at the bottom of the hour for 42 ticks.

10/22/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 81B
Actual: 77B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.634 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.610 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.644 – 1038 (8 min)
34 ticks

Double Bottom @ 3.610 – 1046 (16 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 3.652 – 1112 (42 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Due to the US Gov shutdown, this report should have released on 10/17 but was delayed 5 days. Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 24 tick short spike as the :30 bar was expiring. The spike started on the 100 SMA, then crossed the 50 SMA and extended the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.616 with about 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop above the fill point for the early part of the bar. The best approach on a smaller move like this is too place a profit target around break even. In this case the 20 tick stop loss would have been safe to absorb the heat, and then it would have given you 2 opportunities to exit at 10-12 sec and 20-27 sec with 2 ticks to spare. The reversal gained 34 ticks, back to the 200 SMA before it fell to a double bottom on the :46 bar. Then it reversed again for 42 ticks in the next 26 min to just above the 200 SMA.

10/31/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual: 38B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.584 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.560 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 3.591 – 1031 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.611 – 1042 (12 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an indecisive reaction on the :31 bar after the movement on the :30 bar was easily contained within the bracket. The spike fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot for 24 ticks, then reversed for 31 ticks immediately before chopping for the rest of the bar and settling near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.564 with about 10 ticks of slippage, then seen it stop you out immediately for a 20 tick loss with no slippage. After the :31 bar, it backed off before continuing to reverse for another 20 ticks to the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot 11 min later.

11/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 21B
Actual: 20B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.501 (1029)
1st Peak @ 3.545 – 1031 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 3.507 – 1032 (2 min)
38 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.560 – 1035 (5 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.508 – 1111 (41 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 44 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the S1 Mid Pivot at the top before retreating to leave 31 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.526 with about 15 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 15 ticks as it hovered near the top of the bar for about 5 sec before retreating. After the :31 bar, it continued to reverse for a few more ticks, then rebounded for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in 3 min as it eclipsed the OOD. Then it reversed for 52 ticks in the next 35 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.