Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 12-13 (1 Min) 11.21.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

11/21/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -34B
Actual: -45B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.711 (1029)
Premature Spike to 3.689 – 1030 (0 min)
22 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.740 – 1031 (1 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.743 – 1036 (6 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 3.717 – 1108 (38 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast (and the first draw of the Fall) saw a premature 22 tick short spike :56 sec into the :30 bar that crossed all 3 major SMAs followed by a 39 tick true long spike that reached the R2 Mid Pivot as the bar rolled over. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.699 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover for 4 sec between breakeven and +10 ticks. If you had exited in that brief window, you likely would have captured about 5 ticks. If you waited into the :31 bar, you would have been stopped out with about a 32 tick loss with slippage. After the :31 bar left 19 ticks on the wick naked, it rallied for a 2nd peak of only 3 more ticks to eclipse the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 26 ticks in the next 30 min as it reached the R1 Pivot. Then it chopped sideways between the R1 and R2 Mid Pivots.

NG 01-14 (1 Min) 12.5.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

12/5/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -141B
Actual: -162B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.006 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.078 – 1031 (1 min)
72 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.089 – 1034 (4 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 4.060 – 1040 (10 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 72 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar being easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the R3 Mid Pivot at the top and greatly extended the HOD, closing near the top of the bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.037 with about 21 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately at the R3 Mid Pivot and back to off to chop between 4.055 and 4.021 (R2 Mid Pivot) for 20 sec before it ascended to the end of the bar. The stop at -20 ticks would have been positioned well to absorb the heat with 4 ticks to spare just below the R2 Mid Pivot. A pre-established profit target of 20 ticks would have filled easily, or wait until after 20 sec into the bar for later rally due to the large draw. After the :31 bar, it continued to edge higher for another 11 ticks in the next 3 min. Then it only reversed 29 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 13 SMA and the R3 Mid Pivot. It remained above the R3 Mid Pivot until about 1130 before it finally was able to go lower.

NG 01-14 (1 Min) 12.12.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

12/12/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -85B
Actual: -81B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.383 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.357 – 1031 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 4.407 – 1032 (2 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.347 – 1035 (5 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 4.405 – 1042 (12 min)
58 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.334 – 1104 (34 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 4.388 – 1128 (58 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 26 tick short spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the 50 SMA near the origin, but no apparent barrier at the bottom of the spike. It reversed late in the bar to cross all 3 major SMAs and reach the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.367 with about 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 15 ticks of heat and 10 ticks of profit for the first 28 sec of the bar. With a relatively small move of only 26 ticks and after 4 attempts to go lower than 4.357 failed, look to exit near breakeven. It developed into a sine wave that kept swinging 50+ ticks between highs and lows for the next hour. When this trend develops, it offers several opportunities to buy the dips and sell the rips.

NG 02-14 (1 Min) 1.9.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

1/9/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -147B
Actual: -157B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.156 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.192 – 1031 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 4.142 – 1033 (3 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 4.190 – 1045 (15 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 4.129 – 1108 (38 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 36 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD and nearly reached the HOD for 36 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.180 with about 14 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 14 ticks of heat and 10 ticks of profit for the first 21 sec of the bar. A target of anything less than 12 ticks would have filled, or look to exit late in the bar just above the S1 Mid Pivot for about 5 ticks. It reversed strongly on the next 2 bars for 50 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and matching a low hit twice in the previous hour. Then it pulled back for 48 ticks in a near double top in the next 12 min. After that the bears won the final fight, dragging it down 61 ticks in 23 min to nearly reach the LOD.

NG 02-14 (1 Min) 1.16.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

1/16/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -296B
Actual: -287B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.469 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.366 – 1031 (1 min)
103 ticks

Reversal to 4.400 – 1032 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.358 – 1035 (5 min)
111 ticks

Reversal to 4.421 – 1040 (10 min)
63 ticks

Pullback to 4.367 – 1045 (15 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 4.486 – 1156 (86 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Slightly lesser draw (but still large) on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 103 tick short spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.442 with about 17 ticks of slippage, then seen it ratchet lower and settle to chop between 4.368 and 4.386. Look to exit somewhere in that area, below the R1 Mid Pivot for about 60 ticks. It backed off about 34 ticks on the next bar, then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 8 more ticks on the :35 bar, reaching the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 63 ticks in 5 min, crossing the R1 Pivot and 13 SMA and nearly reached the 20 SMA. Then it pulled back to reach the original peak in the next 5 min. After that, it turned into a long developing reversal that achieved 121 ticks in a little over an hour, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R2 Pivot.

NG 02-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

1/23/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -112B
Actual: -107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.812 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.871 – 1031 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 4.827 – 1032 (2 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.886 – 1041 (11 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 4.821 – 1045 (15 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 4.877 – 1100 (30 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 4.756 – 1135 (65 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Slightly lesser draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 59 tick long spike on the :31 bar with the movement on the :30 bar barely contained within the bracket. The spike crossed the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot on the upward path, then peaked on the 200 SMA, before retreating late in the bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 4.829 with about 7 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 4.860, just above the R2 Mid Pivot with 30+ ticks. This would have easily filled up to 30 sec into the bar. It backed off about 38 ticks as the bar expired, then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 15 more ticks on the :41 bar, briefly penetrating the 200 SMA, but quickly retreating. Then it reversed 65 ticks in 4 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. Then it chopped sideways and pulled back to eclipse the 200 SMA one more time at the top of the hour. After that, it reversed strongly in the next 35 min for 121 ticks, then continued oscillating with a lower center of gravity.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 1.30.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

1/30/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -225B
Actual: -230B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 5.146 (1029)
1st Peak @ 5.170 – 1031 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 5.120 – 1031 (1 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.216 – 1035 (5 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 5.113 – 1040 (10 min)
103 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a 24 tick long spike on the :31 bar where the movement on the :30 bar would have filled your long entry. The spike initially crossed the 13 SMA prior to the release, then the 20 SMA and almost the 50 SMA after the release. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 5.156 with no slippage on the :30 bar at 5.156. It would have backed off then hovered between 8 ticks in the red and 4 ticks in the profit. The safe play is to close out close to breakeven if you are filled with minimal momentum on the :30 bar. After the release, it continued long for another 10 ticks, then reversed on the back end of the :31 bar for 50 ticks to the LOD, before closing out the bar at the top again. Then it achieved a 2nd peak of 46 more ticks, eclipsing the 200 SMA, before reversing 103 ticks back to the LOD again. It continued to chop sideways above the S1 Mid Pivot before a dramatic 80 ticks drop at 1100, then a 240 tick reversal in the next 35 min.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -270B
Actual: -262B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 5.136 (1029)
Premature spike @ 5.105 (1029:22)
31 ticks

Reversal to 5.140 (1029:37)
35 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.000 – 1030:15 (1 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 5.087 – 1030:43 (1 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.971 – 1033 (3 min)
169 ticks

Reversal to 5.120 – 1037 (7 min)
149 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short move with a premature 31 tick short spike on the :30 bar. Ever since the extreme winter conditions have taken hold we have seen much larger moves on the NG and trading over 5.000 for the first time in a few years. The premature spike fell to eclipse the 50 SMA and 20/13 SMAs then chopped sideways before pulling back to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 5.120 with 6 ticks of slippage on the :30 bar. Since the fill was premature look for a safe and quick exit. Moving the profit target up to the 5.110 area for 10 ticks would have been smart as it chopped between 5.105 and 5.120 for 14 sec before it pulled back above the 50 SMA. Then when the news broke, it fell for 140 ticks to 5.000 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 87 ticks at :43 sec, before falling for a 2nd peak of another 29 ticks to 4.971 on the :33 bar. After that it reversed for 149 ticks in the next 4 min to the 50 SMA. In the aftermath, it continued large swings, but the peaks and valleys along with the timing was fairly random, making it difficult to trade.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

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Mar 242014

2/13/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -234B
Actual: -237B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.936 (1029)
Premature spike @ 4.922 (1029:49)
14 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.019 – 1030:15 (1 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 4.985 – 1030:43 (1 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.064 – 1033 (3 min)
128 ticks

Reversal to 4.984 – 1037 (7 min)
80 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long move with a premature 14 tick short spike on the :30 bar. The premature spike was small, but fell to hit the R1 Mid Pivot, then pulled back up. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 4.926 with no slippage on the :30 bar, then seen it pull back. Since the fill was premature look for a safe and quick exit with about 4-5 ticks loss as the bar was expiring. Exiting early in this case would have avoided a probable 30-50 tick loss. Then when the news broke, it rallied for 83 ticks to 5.019 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the HOD. Then it reversed for 34 ticks at :43 sec, before rallying for a 2nd peak of another 45 ticks to 5.064 on the :33 bar. After that it reversed for 80 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA. In the aftermath, it continued to climb, mostly using the 13/20 SMAs as support.

NG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 242014

2/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -255B
Actual: -250B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 6.081 (1029)
Premature spike @ 6.105 (1029:40)
24 ticks

1st Peak @ 5.975 – 1030:15 (1 min)
106 ticks

Reversal to 6.050 – 1030:52 (1 min)
75 ticks

2nd Peak @ 5.882 – 1036 (6 min)
199 ticks

Reversal to 6.053 – 1059 (29 min)
171 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short move with a premature 24 tick long spike on the :30 bar. The premature spike was moderate in size, but rose in a tame and safe manner. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 6.091 with no slippage on the :30 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet upward and hover around 6.103 allowing for an easy exit with 12 ticks. Exiting early in this case would have avoided a probable 30-50 tick loss. Then when the news broke, it fell for 106 ticks to 5.975 15 sec into the :31 bar, crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 75 ticks at :52 sec, before falling for a 2nd peak of another 93 ticks to 5.882 on the :36 bar. After that it reversed for 171 ticks in the next 23 min to the 100/200 SMAs. In the aftermath, it continued to climb, eventually reaching the R1 Mid Pivot over an hour after the report.

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