ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

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May 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.3
Actual: 2.60/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 165’02 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 165’13 – 1301:47 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 165’08 – 1301:54 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 165’18 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 165’09 – 1319 (18 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’06 (long)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 165’12 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’12 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, that peaked immediately on the S1 Mid Pivot. With an appropriate profit target, 6 ticks would have been captured. After that it achieved a 2nd peak for 5 more ticks at the PP Pivot, then reversed 9 ticks.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.10.2016

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Mar 312016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_10_2016

3/10/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.50/2.1
Actual: 2.72/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 161’25 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 162’03 – 1303:34 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 161’30 – 1307 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’08 – 1326 (25 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 161’31 – 1334 (33 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’14 – 1417 (76 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 162’08 – 1436 (95 min)
6 ticks

Expected Fill: 161’28 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’02 – 6 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’31 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike, but very slow. It also stalled for about 30 sec at 161’29 as the resistance of the 100 SMA and S2 Pivot held it down. Once it broke free, it grabbed another 5 ticks. Then it stepped higher for a 2nd and Final peak as it used the 50 SMA as support.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

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Feb 272016
 

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.91/2.3
Actual: 2.50/2.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 169’12 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 168’14 – 1302:44 (2 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 168’24 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 168’04 – 1320 (19 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 169’14 – 1438 (97 min)
42 ticks

Expected Fill: 169’08 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 168’15 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 168’28 (12 ticks)

Notes: Large short spike and 2nd peak due the big drop in the Highest yield. Although 25 ticks were available more than likely a modest profit target would have filled earlier. 42 tick reversal after the 2nd peak in a little over an hour.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

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Feb 282014
 

ZB 03-14 (1 Min)  2_13_2014

2/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.6
Actual: 3.69/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1302 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell quite a bit from the last auction and consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. The bid to cover ratio was quite a bit lower signaling lower demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 7 ticks as it only crossed the HOD. It was briefly sustained and left 4 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 1-3 ticks as it did not linger at the top for more than 3 sec. Then it reversed quickly to the origin in the next 3 min. After that it attempted to rally and was only able to climb within 1 tick of the 1st peak and trade sideways.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

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Mar 272014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  3_13_2014

3/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.69/2.3
Actual: 3.63/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’30 – 1302 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1310 (9 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month and was consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. This caused the bonds to fall for 8 ticks as it crossed the R3 Mid Pivot and hit the 100 SMA. It was briefly sustained and left 6 ticks on the wick naked when the bar expired. With JOBB you would have filled short at 133’03 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 2-3 ticks as it did not linger near the bottom for more than 5 sec. Then it bobbed between 133’07 and 133’02 and eventually reversed up for a total of 12 ticks on the :10 bar. Then it backed off and traded sideways mostly above the R3 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

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May 012014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  4_10_2014

4/10/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.63/2.4
Actual: 3.53/2.5
DULL REACTION…2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 134’04 – 1308 (7 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’19 – 1328 (27 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’06 – 1405 (64 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month. This caused the bonds to spike for only 3 ticks in a dull reaction that hit the 50 SMA and stalled. With JOBB you would have barely filled long at 134’11 with no slippage, then seen it hover at 1 tick in the red for over 30 sec. In this case, move the stop up to 134’09 and move the profit target to 134’13. Your stop would have filled for a minor loss as the reversal fell 7 ticks and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded and achieved a 2nd peal of 11 ticks 20 min later, crossing the R3 Pivot and extending the HOD. After that it fell 13 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R3 Mid Pivot in 37 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

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May 252014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  5_8_2014

5/8/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.53/2.5
Actual: 3.44/2.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 136’12 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’23 – 1305 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 136’05 – 1319 (18 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 136’10 – 1417 (76 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month. This caused the bonds to spike short for a large reaction of 21 ticks that hit the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot then stepped lower for 4 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 136’01 with 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover on the S1 Mid Pivot for a long time. Look ot exit at 135’28 with 5 ticks of profit. After the spike hit bottom, the reversal rebounded for 14 ticks in 14 min, crossing the 20 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then the extended reversal claimed another 5 ticks in the next hour to the R1 Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

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Jul 032014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  6_12_2014

6/12/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.44/2.1
Actual: 3.44/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’18 – 1303 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 135’12 – 1305 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’00 – 1337 (36 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 135’27 – 1344 (43 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield was unchanged from last month, but the demand rose strongly. This caused the bonds to spike long for a large reaction of 15 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the HOD, then hit the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 135’13 with 7 ticks of slippage, then seen it give you up to 5 ticks to capture where it hovered early in the :03 bar just below the R2 Pivot. The higher slippage is disappointing, but 5 ticks is still a good take on this report. After a 6 tick reversal that fell to the R2 Mid Pivot on the next 2 bars, it stepped higher for a final peak of 14 more ticks after about 30 min and crossing the R3 Mid Pivot. Then is reversed for a meager 5 ticks and traded sideways.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.10.2014

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Jul 202014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  7_10_2014

7/10/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.44/2.7
Actual: 3.37/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’02 – 1302 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’07 – 1303 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 136’29 – 1342 (41 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1353 (52 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell slightly from last month, but the demand fell off a bit. This caused the bonds to spike short for a small reaction of 6 ticks that started on the R1 Pivot and 100/50 SMAs, then fell. With JOBB you would have filled short at 137’05 with no slippage, then seen it hover between your fill point and +2 ticks for about 30 sec. You could have exited there, or waited for the secondary drop which fell nicely after 10 min to the R1 Mid pivot for another 2 ticks beyond the 1st peak allowing up to 4-5 ticks to be captured. Then the final peak fell another 3 ticks after another 30 min. after that it reversed for 7 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA.