ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 2.27.2014

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Mar 112014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  2_27_2014

2/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.19/2.7
Actual: 2.11/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’00 – 1312 (11 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’28 – 1346 (45 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 133’06 – 1504 (123 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.11 continued to fall back after a high of 2.39 in December now that tapering has started. This caused a typical slow but safe move that would have yielded 2-3 ticks after it fell through the 100/200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 133’03 with no slippage late on the :04 bar then given you 2-3 ticks of profit on the :07 – :14 bars where it stalled for a few min. After a 2 tick reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks back to the origin in the next 80 min, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.12.2014

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Mar 272014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  3_12_2014

3/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.80/2.5
Actual: 2.73/2.9
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 132’02 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 132’07 – 1301:43 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 132’04 – 1302:35 (2 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 132’09 – 1315 (14 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 132’03 – 1408 (67 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 131’30 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 131’27 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’06 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot ) / 132’10 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield continued to fall after topping 3.00 in January. This caused the ZB to pop long for 5 ticks, then back off and hover between 2-4 ticks near the R3 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner short entry at 132’06 with 1 tick to spare, then allowed an exit between breakeven and +2 ticks as it hovered. This is a situation where the prudent play is to exit safely with what the market is yielding. When it tried to reverse for 10 min and was unable to fall below 132’04, do not get greedy. After the reversal, it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 10 min, then reversed for 6 ticks to the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.13.2014

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Mar 272014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  3_13_2014

3/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.69/2.3
Actual: 3.63/2.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’30 – 1302 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1310 (9 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month and was consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. This caused the bonds to fall for 8 ticks as it crossed the R3 Mid Pivot and hit the 100 SMA. It was briefly sustained and left 6 ticks on the wick naked when the bar expired. With JOBB you would have filled short at 133’03 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 2-3 ticks as it did not linger near the bottom for more than 5 sec. Then it bobbed between 133’07 and 133’02 and eventually reversed up for a total of 12 ticks on the :10 bar. Then it backed off and traded sideways mostly above the R3 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

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Apr 182014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  3_27_2014

3/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.11/2.7
Actual: 2.26/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’09 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 134’01 – 1307 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’16 – 1352 (51 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 133’29 – 1630 (209 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.26 rebounded from last month. This caused a quick pop of 4 ticks that remained within 1 tick of breakeven for about 2 min as it crossed the 20/13 SMAs and nearly reached the HOD. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 134’08 with 1 tick of slippage just a few sec after order placement. With the quick spike, move the stop up to -1 tick and the profit target down to 134’10 on the HOD. The stop would have filled after about 45 sec as it reversed for 8 ticks in the next 5 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 45 min. After that it fell for a slow developing reversal of 19 ticks in 2.5 hrs heading into the session close down to the R1 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

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May 012014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  4_9_2014

4/9/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.73/2.9
Actual: 2.72/2.8
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 133’13 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’09 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’11 – 1301:47 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 133’07 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 133’11 – 1310 (9 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’10 (just below the 200 SMA) / 133’05 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 133’20 (on the OOD)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield nearly matched last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 4 ticks, then back off and hover on your fill point for about 1 minute. In this case, either look to exit at Breakeven or move the stop up to -1 tick and the profit target to +2 ticks. As it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs on the drop, it is reasonable to expect a small correction back to the S1 Mid Pivot. When that did not happen, you would have taken a 1 tick loss. After the :02 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to the S1 Pivot, then reversed for 4 ticks back to the SMAs. Then it fell again and traded sideways on the S1 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

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May 012014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  4_10_2014

4/10/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.63/2.4
Actual: 3.53/2.5
DULL REACTION…2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 134’04 – 1308 (7 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’19 – 1328 (27 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’06 – 1405 (64 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month. This caused the bonds to spike for only 3 ticks in a dull reaction that hit the 50 SMA and stalled. With JOBB you would have barely filled long at 134’11 with no slippage, then seen it hover at 1 tick in the red for over 30 sec. In this case, move the stop up to 134’09 and move the profit target to 134’13. Your stop would have filled for a minor loss as the reversal fell 7 ticks and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded and achieved a 2nd peal of 11 ticks 20 min later, crossing the R3 Pivot and extending the HOD. After that it fell 13 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R3 Mid Pivot in 37 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

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May 132014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  4_24_2014

4/24/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.26/2.6
Actual: 2.32/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1309 (8 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’17 – 1341 (40 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’12 – 1358 (57 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.32 rose from last month. This caused a small initial 2 tick bump followed by another 3 ticks in the next 7 min as it crossed all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled initially at 134’08 with no slippage just a few sec after order placement. It would have hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 1 tick loss. Move the stop to 134’05 and be patient using 134’09 or 10 as a profit target. This would have secured 1-2 ticks in a few min. After stalling on the OOD for about 10 min, it kept climbing another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak at the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD in about 30 min. Then it reversed for 5 ticks to the 50 SMA and PP Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.7.2014

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May 252014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  5_7_2014

5/7/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.8
Actual: 2.61/2.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 136’01 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’04 – 1301:38 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’01 – 1302:20 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 136’08 – 1312 (11 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’02 – 1320 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 135’29 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 135’26 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’05 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot ) / 136’09 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield retreated a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for only 3 ticks in a dull reaction, then back off to the origin after about 45 sec. This would not have impulse to fill the inner tier, so cancel the order. After the :02 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot in 9 min before reversing 6 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 8 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

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May 252014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  5_8_2014

5/8/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.53/2.5
Actual: 3.44/2.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 136’12 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’23 – 1305 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 136’05 – 1319 (18 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 136’10 – 1417 (76 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month. This caused the bonds to spike short for a large reaction of 21 ticks that hit the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot then stepped lower for 4 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 136’01 with 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover on the S1 Mid Pivot for a long time. Look ot exit at 135’28 with 5 ticks of profit. After the spike hit bottom, the reversal rebounded for 14 ticks in 14 min, crossing the 20 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then the extended reversal claimed another 5 ticks in the next hour to the R1 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.29.2014

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Jun 042014
 

ZB 06-14 (1 Min)  5_29_2014

5/29/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.32/2.6
Actual: 2.01/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 138’25 (1301)
1st Peak @ 138’21 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 138’26 – 1308 (7 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 138’08 – 1358 (57 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 138’18 – 1441 (100 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.01 fell quite a bit from last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in 3 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled initially at 138’23 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between 1 and 2 ticks of profit. I had my profit target at 138’21 and it did not fill, so I moved the stop on the reversal to 138’27, just above the 100 SMA and waited for a 2nd peak. Then I captured the 2 ticks on the 2nd peak on the :16 bar. It continued to fall for a total of 13 more ticks in the next 50 min as it crossed the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 43 min to the 100 SMA and OOD.