12/4/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 97.29
1st Peak @ 97.37 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 97.12 – 1404 (4 min)
25 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of early October through mid November. Eight Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest growth was reported in the Philadelphia, San Francisco, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts. The DX had minimal movement, and mostly chopped sideways. This resulted in a 8 tick dull long reaction in 2 bars that crossed the 50/100 SMAs. With JOBB, it would not have triggered the long entry on your bracket until late in the :32 bar, then backed off due to the SMAs. In this case with the muted move and SMA location, place your stop at about 97.29 and wait for it to potentially go further long. You would have been stopped with a 5 tick loss, but averted a larger loss and been safe due to the typical pattern of this report to slowly achieve a peak over several bars. The reversal garnered 25ticks to nearly reach the 200 SMA 2 min later. After that it rallied for a double top 20 min later, then strongly reversed again.

9/4/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 107.07
1st Peak @ 106.86 – 1402 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 107.14 – 1407 (7 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.84 – 1422 (22 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 107.27 – 1429 (29 min)
43 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of early July through late August. Eight Districts characterized growth as moderate; of the remaining four, Boston, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported modest growth, and Chicago indicated activity had improved. The DX fell modestly and slowly after 1400. This resulted in a 21 tick short move in 3 bars that eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot followed by a 28 tick reversal in the next 4 min back to the 50 SMA. With JOBB, it would not have triggered the short entry on your bracket until about 30 sec into the :31 bar, but this is normal. You would have filled at 107.02 with no slippage, then look for the S2 Mid Pivot for 14 ticks. It was able to achieve a mild 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Mid Pivot again 15 min after the revesal, then it reversed for 43 ticks in the next 7 min as the pit closed.

6/5/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 93.97
1st Peak @ 94.05 – 1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 83.90 – 1403 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.18 – 1410 (10 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 93.58 – 1426 (26 min)
60 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity increased at a modest to moderate pace since the previous report across all Federal Reserve Districts except the Dallas District, which reported strong economic growth. The manufacturing sector expanded in most Districts since the previous Beige Book. Most districts noted slight to moderate gains in consumer spending. The DX was fairly flat until 1415 when it rallied mildly. This resulted in initial tame indecision, followed by a long move, then a short move corresponding to the rally on the DX. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 94.04 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it back off. Given that the move is often slow and takes several bars, I waited it out and left the stop loss at the 200 SMA as a good area of support and took a 10 tick loss. A 15 tick stop loss would have ridden out the heat and given you a handful of ticks 5-10 min later as it hit its 2nd peak. Then the reversal yielded 60 ticks in about 15 min.