CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

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May 092013
 

CL 04-13 (1 Min)  3_6_2013

3/6/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.92
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1403 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 89.94 – 1406 (6 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 90.50 – 1450 (50 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 90.37 – 1529 (89 min)
13 ticks

Notes:  The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. The DX stayed mostly flat after the report, but the CL rallied.  This resulted in a spike of 17 ticks in 3 bars, followed by a small reversal.  Then it turned into an upward fan riding the 13 elevator up to 90.50 about 20 min after the pit closed.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at 89.98 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit quickly for about 10 ticks.  If you chose to stay in for the longer term, stay in until the 13 crosses the 20 or the MACD crosses and trail a stop a few ticks below the 20 SMA. Look to exit at about 90.48 when the pit closed and it traded sideways for several minutes for about 50 ticks.  After that, the reversal was only able to garner 13 ticks in about 40 min due to the significant drop in volume.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

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Jan 162013
 


CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

1/16/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION then SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.96
Traded between 93.85 and 93.98 for 14 min
range of 13 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.31 – 1430 (30 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 94.12 – 1434 (34 min)
19 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding at a moderate pace last month, but faster than the pace of several months. This prompted analysts to expect the status quo for central bank action, thus generating little fireworks. Initially the report was stuck in a tight range with a short term low as the floor and the R1 as the ceiling for about 13 min. After that, it tested the short term low and bounced higher, fighting through all the major SMAs and the R1 Pivot for a final peak of 35 ticks as the pit closed. With JOBB, you would have cancelled the order after a dull 3 min. With little movement in the DX it was difficult to discern which way the eventual breakout would go. Once it broke through the R1 Pivot and 50 SMA, it was free to continue moving higher. It eventually peaked 5 ticks below the HOD. The reversal fell 19 ticks in the following 4 min nearly back to the 200 SMA after the pit closed.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

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Nov 282012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

11/28/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION then UPWARD FAN
Started @ 86.23
Traded between 86.16 and 86.29 for 17 min
range of 13 ticks

Final Peak @ 86.74 – 1055 (115 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 86.57 – 1146 (166 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding at a measured pace last month, even as the northeast and Atlantic states were hurt by hurricane Sandy. Initially the report was stuck in a tight range in the middle of all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist with the S2 Pivot providing a floor at 86.16. After 17 min, the bulls finally broke loose to cause a modest rally of 51 ticks in the next 100 min. With JOBB, you would have cancelled the order after a dull :01 bar. With little movement in the DX it was difficult to discern which way the eventual breakout would go. Once it broke through the technical level of 86.38, it was free to continue moving higher. It eventually eclipsed the S1 Pivot by 6 ticks and could go no higher. The reversal fell only 17 ticks in the following hour as the trade volume dried up late in the US session.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.10.12

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Oct 102012
 


CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.10.12

10/10/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.91
1st Peak @ 91.77 – 0801 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 91.98 – 0802 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.02 – 0823 (23 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 91.40 – 0832 (32 min)
38 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. Initially the report was modestly positive overall and caused a small uptick in the DX, resulting in a meager short spike of 14 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot briefly. Then it rebounded and traded sideways for 15 min between the 50 and 100 SMAs, before heading south for the 2nd peak of 89 ticks on the :15 – :23 bars as the DX rallied strongly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 91.82, then had an opportunity close out with a handful of ticks. With the previous hour or so showing strong support at and below the PP Pivot, do not get greedy on this and look for more ticks. The longer term reaction was able to deliver a bigger yield which is often the case with this report. Ensure you are flat by 1430 when the pit closes.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

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Aug 292012
 


CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

8/29/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.32
1st Peak @ 95.38 – 0803 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 95.25 – 0805/0808 (5/8 min)
13 ticks (2x bottom)

2nd Peak @ 95.66 – 0822 (22 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.33 – 0911/0914 (71/74 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report was modestly positive overall showing gradual growth in most sectors, with slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. The market was in a choppy pattern heading upward before the report broke, so it continued in that pattern to nearly reach the S1 Pivot at 95.66. Then the prospect of QE3 was dampened as the report was digested to be just positive enough to make it less necessary. So the dollar rallied, and the CL fell to the level at the origin of the report . Not a recommended report for JOBB, but the initial behavior would have been a dull reaction and cause for canceling the order.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

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Jul 182012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

7/18/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 90.07
1st Peak@ 90.26 – 0804 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 90.00 – 0812 (12 min)
26 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Report was satisfactory and tame overall showing modest to moderate growth in most sectors, with slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. Since the market was in a choppy pattern before the report broke, it continued in to exhibit the same behavior with little impetus to deviate. At the release it continued its rise from the low of 89.84 before the report to achieve a peak of 19 ticks at 90.26 on the :04 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it fell to 90.00, crossing the R1 Pivot, the 50 SMA, and bouncing off of the 100 SMA. Then it chopped sideways for 2 hrs between the R1 Pivot and the 200 SMA until it climbed above the R1 Pivot late in the trading day. Not a great setup for JOBB, it would have the appearance of a dull report, barely filling and failing to launch. Still it would have been good for a handful of ticks. The long wicks and tails signal lack of conviction and heavy HFT influence.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

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Jun 062012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

6/6/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.14
1st Peak@ 84.93 – 0810 (10 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.75 – 0827 (27 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 85.23 – 0838 (38 min)
48 ticks (4x top)

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in most sectors, with modest or slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. Since the market was in a downtrend before the report broke, it continued in that prevailing direction. At the release it closed the gap long up to the 13 SMA, but could not get any higher. Then it went sideways and fell. After bottoming out on the :27 bar, it reversed upward for 48 ticks then chopped sideways. With nothing overly positive or negative to solidify expectations of QE or other easing, the markets were tame. Not a good setup for JOBB, and no clear direction after 5 min.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.29.12

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Feb 292012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.29.12

2/29/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 106.10
Peak@ 107.21 – 0938 (38 min)
111 ticks.

Reversal to 106.82 – 1006 (66 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in most sectors, and greater growth in others. After 2 rises with subsequent gap closes right out of the gate, it rose about 100 ticks from 0920 to 0929. The short term market was a bit oversold due to the 237 tick drop from FED Testimony earlier in the morning, and this report provided the necessary catalyst to buy. As before, DO NOT USE JOBB, although it would have worked out for you in this case. After about 3-4 min the direction is still not obvious, so I would wait. The first series of candles that give me an obvious indication are the long tails in the 0917 – 0920 area coupled with the inability to touch the 50 SMA. I would buy around 106.25 on the 0922-0923 candle and close at 0931 around 107.05.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.11.12

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Jan 112012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.11.12

1/11/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 101.66
Peak@ 101.01 – 0929/0949 (29/49 min)
65 ticks (2x bottom).

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in all but one sector. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 65 ticks over 29 minutes. DO NOT USE JOBB. Wait about 3-4 min after the reports breaks to discern the direction, then if you see the indications of a FAN, place an order with the trend. Peak was reached at 0929, but even if you wait another 20 min, it double bottomed.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

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Nov 302011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

11/30/2011 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL (REPEATED)
Started @ 100.70
1st Peak @ 101.15 – 0909/0912 (9/12 min)
45 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 100.70 – 0919 (19 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 100.59 – 0930 (30 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate broad based growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a short term spike and then a seesaw until 0930 when the reversal hit bottom and again at 0950-0955. I would not use the JOBB software (even though it would have worked in this case), wait until seeing the activity in the first 3-5 min. Since it bucked the trend of the FAN already in progress and reversed upward, you could get in a long trade and expect it to go to the 200 / 100 SMAs and then close out after the double top at 101.15 @ 0909/0912. After seeing the double top, I would place a short order in the 101.10 area and ride it down to the 100.75 area since that is just above where the report broke at 0900.