FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05 15 (1 Min) 03.26.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Mar 262012

3/26/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0200 HI time / 0800 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.62
1st Peak @ 106.85 – 0201 (1 min)
23 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 107.09 – 0205 (5 min)
47 ticks

3rd Peak @ 107.22 – 0214 (14 min)
60 ticks

Final Peak @ 107.32 – 0221 (21 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 107.00 – 0236 (36 min)
32 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke hinted strongly that QE3 is coming soon due to the perceived problem of long term unemployment still dragging the economy down. The markets liked that and it put traders in a buying mood. You would also notice that your order did not fill until about 20 sec into the :01 candle. For the FED reports that is okay as the reaction is delayed, but not dull. With the report crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, you would be wise to exit near the top of the :01 candle. After seeing that it never dropped below the 50 SMA on the next two candles, it is gearing up for a 2nd peak and you could enter another buy order on the 02:03 candle as it ascends. While it hit its successive peaks the retracement never crossed below the 13 EMA. Also notice the MACD did not flatten until at/after the final peak.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Mar 142012

3/14/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 106.54
Peak @ 106.71 – 0401 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 106.44 – 0417 (17 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Delayed spike as the spike did not start until 20 seconds after the 0401 candle started. Speech caused a minor upward impulse. Reversal took 17 minutes eventually fighting through the 50 SMA briefly to touch the 200 SMA. I would close when it penetrated the 50 SMA with the 200 nearby.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Mar 132012

3/13/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 106.86 (0815)
1st Peak @ 106.72 – 0816 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 107.18 – 0821 (6 min)
46 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 106.62 – 0829 (14 min)
24 ticks

Then continued alternating reversal / peak until 0940

Notes: Report released on time, but the FED largely “voted present” leaving all aspects of current policy unchanged and not hinting at new policy changes in the future. No allusion to QE-3 (either taking it off the table or describing it as a future necessity) was made. This caused a long term roller coaster in the market with no discernible positive or negative trend. The first 10 minutes after the release were volatile with large alternating red and green candles of large magnitude and long wicks/tails. After seeing watching the news at the time of the release and seeing the market reaction, I would stay out of this report. The only safe thing.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.01.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Mar 012012

3/1/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN / REVERSAL
*ISM Manufacturing report released at the same time caused the reaction up to 0530, after 0530 was due to FED Testimony.
Started @ 107.86 (0530)
1st Peak @ 106.70 – 0610 (40 min)
116 ticks

Reverse Peak 1 @ 107.70 – 0634 (64 min)
100 ticks (3x top)

Reverse Peak 2 @ 108.31 – 0726 (116 min)
161 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Financial Services Committee. Caused a downward FAN for 116 ticks over 40 min, fighting through all major SMAs with ease. It then reversed for 161 ticks in the next 76 min while it was reined in by the 200 SMA for about 40 min before finally breaking long. Not an opportunity for JOBB, this is a watch and see what is going to happen with little predictability situation.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.29.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Feb 292012

2/29/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 106.10
Peak@ 107.21 – 0938 (38 min)
111 ticks.

Reversal to 106.82 – 1006 (66 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in most sectors, and greater growth in others. After 2 rises with subsequent gap closes right out of the gate, it rose about 100 ticks from 0920 to 0929. The short term market was a bit oversold due to the 237 tick drop from FED Testimony earlier in the morning, and this report provided the necessary catalyst to buy. As before, DO NOT USE JOBB, although it would have worked out for you in this case. After about 3-4 min the direction is still not obvious, so I would wait. The first series of candles that give me an obvious indication are the long tails in the 0917 – 0920 area coupled with the inability to touch the 50 SMA. I would buy around 106.25 on the 0922-0923 candle and close at 0931 around 107.05.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.29.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Feb 292012

2/29/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE (into DOWNWARD FAN)
Started @ 107.09
1st Peak @ 107.23 – 0501 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reverse Peak 1 @ 106.70 – 0509 (9 min) Reverse Peak 3 @ 105.28 – 0552 (52 min)
53 ticks 195 ticks

Reverse Peak 2 @ 106.53 – 0520 (11 min) Reverse Final Peak @ 104.84 – 0633 (93 min)
29 ticks 237 ticks

Pullback Upward to 106.06 – 0716 (136 min)
122 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee. Caused a small spike, then reversed course, fought through all three major SMAs and fell precipitously until 0633 for 237 ticks. The downspike at 0531 and following reversal are due to the CL inventory report. After 0540 the inventory report had been forgotten and Bernanke was the focus again. Whatever he said at about 0545 caused a 130 tick drop in about 7 minutes. There was a retreat upward following lasting 18 min for nearly 100 ticks, but it could not clear the 50 SMA, and fell again over the next 20 min to its low point. Then the market pulled back upward.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.16.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Feb 162012

2/16/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.62
Peak @ 101.84 – 0401 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.17 – 0415 (15 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 101.88 – 0421 / 0440 (21/40 min)
29 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Speech released at the same time as the open of the CL market. Positive catalyst for the market with no real retreat until the 2nd peak at 0415. It did achieve a possible “3rd peak” 3 ticks higher at 0434. When you see a pattern in the area of 0415 (large candle with little wick, then double top, and long wick followed by drop, this is a good indication the upward momentum has arrested…I would close in that area.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.10.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Feb 102012

2/10/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0730 HI time / 1230 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 98.75
Peak @ 98.68 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 98.86 – 0737 (7 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.07.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Feb 072012

2/7/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE (into UPWARD FAN)
Started @ 97.27
1st Peak @ 96.88 – 0506 (6 min)
39 ticks

Reverse to 98.37 – 0525 (25 min)* not due to FED testimony
149 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before Senate Budget Committee on economic outlook and federal budget situation. Comments made were mostly identical to the testimony before the House in the last week. This accounted for the lower volatility as there was no surprise. I would NOT have traded this report as it is a “repeat” not likely to have any shock value to the market. The large FAN was due to Greece nearing a deal with the EU, and concerns of future supply disruptions with the unrest in Iran and Nigeria.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.02.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Feb 022012

2/2/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 97.03
1st Peak @ 97.25 – 0502 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reverse to 97.00 – 0506 (6 min)
25 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before House Budget Committee on economic outlook and federal budget situation. Caused a moderate spike, and slightly larger reversal. The spike had to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs and peaked at at a double top from 0430, causing it to retreat from its peak. After the spike and reversal, the market was stuck straddling the 200 SMA seesawing up and down until 0529 when it broke out of the channel to drop to 96.86. Due to the double top at 97.25, and the retreat from hitting that value, I would consider getting out there.

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