CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.25.12

 FOMC Statement  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.25.12
Jan 252012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.25.12

1/25/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0730 HI time / 1230 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 99.06 (0728)
Peak @ 100.76 – 0817 (49 min)
170 ticks

Reversal to 99.61 – 0926 (118 min)
115 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: *Report broke 2 min early at 0732. Report was positive as the FED reported the US economy is expanding moderately and pledged to keep interest rates low until late 2014. This level of revelation by the FED has never been seen before, and the markets reacted strongly. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. After seeing the initial reaction and interpreting the statement to be bullish, I would have gotten in long around 0731 at the 50 SMA and get out after the last spike at about 0818 / 0819 since the market crossed the R2 line with a big candle.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.11.12

 Beige Book  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.11.12
Jan 112012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.11.12

1/11/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 101.66
Peak@ 101.01 – 0929/0949 (29/49 min)
65 ticks (2x bottom).

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in all but one sector. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 65 ticks over 29 minutes. DO NOT USE JOBB. Wait about 3-4 min after the reports breaks to discern the direction, then if you see the indications of a FAN, place an order with the trend. Peak was reached at 0929, but even if you wait another 20 min, it double bottomed.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 12.13.11

 FOMC Statement  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 12.13.11
Dec 132011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 12.13.11

12/13/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0915 HI time / 1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.10 (0913)
1st Peak @ 100.41 – 0926 (13 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 101.01 – 0931 (18 min)
60 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 100.43 – 0941 (28 min)
67 ticks

Notes: *Report broke 2 min early at 0823. Report was not biased positive or negative as the FED reported the US economy is expanding moderately and left their policy unchanged. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. After seeing the 0914 candle I would get in short on the 0915 candle after it retraced up at about 101.00. After seeing it cross the 100 SMA, the 200 SMA and the long wicks on the 0924 -0926 candles I would get out on the 0928 candle at the latest when it went above 100.65. Even then, after revering upwards it came right back down to almost the same level, then seesawed for the next hour.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

 Beige Book  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11
Nov 302011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.30.11

11/30/2011 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL (REPEATED)
Started @ 100.70
1st Peak @ 101.15 – 0909/0912 (9/12 min)
45 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 100.70 – 0919 (19 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 100.59 – 0930 (30 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate broad based growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a short term spike and then a seesaw until 0930 when the reversal hit bottom and again at 0950-0955. I would not use the JOBB software (even though it would have worked in this case), wait until seeing the activity in the first 3-5 min. Since it bucked the trend of the FAN already in progress and reversed upward, you could get in a long trade and expect it to go to the 200 / 100 SMAs and then close out after the double top at 101.15 @ 0909/0912. After seeing the double top, I would place a short order in the 101.10 area and ride it down to the 100.75 area since that is just above where the report broke at 0900.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.10.11

 FED Chairman Speeches  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.10.11
Nov 102011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.10.11

11/10/2011 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0645 HI time / 1145 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.05
Peak @ 98.36 – 0652 (7 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.86 – 0719 (34 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 98.34 – 0730 / 0737 / 0738 (45/52/53 min)
52 ticks (3x bottom)

Notes: Speech released after beginning of an upward FAN aiding the interpretation of the speech. Typical Spike, small retracement, and secondary spike. I would have probably gotten out at 0714 after the series of long wicks, even though it did go a little higher.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.09.11

 FED Chairman Speeches  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.09.11
Nov 092011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.09.11

11/9/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0430 HI time / 0930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION / INDECISIVE
Started @ 96.21
-11 ticks then +17 ticks, then -18 ticks in the 0431 candle

Reversal to 98.86 – 0737 (7 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would have filled long in the first second, retraced 12 ticks, then come back to give you a small profit about 30 seconds into the 0431 candle-close out there. The reaction was also constrained by the tight FIST.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.02.11

 FOMC Statement  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.02.11
Nov 022011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.02.11

11/2/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 94.00 (0632)
1st Peak @ 93.29 – 0636 (4 min)
71 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.45 – 0725 (53 min)
155 ticks

Reverse to 93.47 – 0748 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)

Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in continuing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Market was in a FIST prior to report release. After seeing the long tail on the 0633 candle and the 0635 candle start below the 100 / 200 SMAs with no pullback, I would get in going short below the 50 SMA. I would set my stop loss about 10 ticks above the 100 / 200 SMA anticipating a retrace and 2nd fall. I would consider closing on the 0711 candle, but after seeing the long wick, it should continue down again (MACD also did not really cross yet). Then I would close on the 0724 candle after seeing the double bottom.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

 Beige Book  Comments Off on CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11
Oct 192011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

10/19/2011 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 88.73
Peak@ 86.50 – 0830 (30 min)
223 ticks

Notes: Report was underperforming overall showing moderate or no economic growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 223 ticks over 30 minutes. DO NOT USE JOBB. Wait about 3-4 min after the reports breaks to discern the direction, then if you see the indications of a FAN, place an order with the trend. Peak was reached at 0830, but even if you wait another 15 min, only about 15 ticks of profit would be lost.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11

 FED Testimony  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11
Oct 042011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11

10/4/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 76.49
1st Peak @ 76.42 / Retrace to 76.64 – 0401 (1 min)
-7 ticks / 15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 76.10 – 0406 (6 min)
39 ticks

Reverse to 77.37 – 0418 (18 min)
127 ticks (3x top)

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. Indecisive at first would have gotten you in short then retraced long and hit the stop loss. I would trade the bounce off the S2 line long at 0406, keep an eye on it crossing the 50/100/200 SMAs, then get out at the triple top.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 09.21.11

 FOMC Statement  Comments Off on CL 04 12 (1 Min) 09.21.11
Sep 212011
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 09.21.11

9/21/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.46 (0823)
1st Peak @ 86.41 – 0827 (4 min) (after spike up 34 ticks on 0824 Candle)
105 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.01 – 0837 (14 min)
145 ticks

Reversal to 86.99 – 0907 (44 min)
98 ticks (2x top)

Notes: *Report broke 8 min late at 0823. Report mildly disappointed in establishing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. Notice the 0817 and 0818 candles where traders jump the gun anticipating. Then the 0824 candle spiked up 34 ticks before falling 23, a 57 tick swing. I would watch the 0825 candle seeing it decisively red, then jump in short on the 0826 in the 87.12 area with a 15 tick stop loss. I would get out at 0838 or 0843 after seeing the tails on a 2nd peak.

 Older Entries  Newer Entries