-091511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/15/2011 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0245 HI time / 0845 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.16
Peak @ 89.95 – 0249 (4 min)
21 ticks
2nd Peak @ 89.80 – 0719 (34 min)
36 ticks
Reversal to 90.34 – 0301 (16 min)
44 ticks
Notes: Speech caused minor downward impulse. 2nd Peak was the candle right before the open, and reversal was the open at 0301.
-090711.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/7/2011 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL (REPEATED)
Started @ 90.28
1st Peak @ 89.87 – 0808 (8 min)
41 ticks
2nd Peak @ 89.72 – 0824 (24 min)
56 ticks
Notes: Report was underperforming overall showed conflicting weak growth / stagnation, or contraction in all 12 sectors. This caused a less disciplined and chaotic drop with volatile retracement and long wicks / tails. I would not use the JOBB software, wait until seeing the 0801 and 0802 candles with long wicks and place a short order then I would close out in the area around 89.90 on the long red candle at 0808. This is not a methodical fan, but more of a spike.
-080911.jpg "Click to enlarge")
8/9/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 81.96 (0819)
1st Peak @ 79.49 – 0824 (5 min)
247 ticks
2nd Peak @ 78.86 – 0846 (27 min)
310 ticks
Reverse to 79.97 – 0855 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)
Notes: *Report broke 4 min late at 0819. Report was underperforming overall as Bernanke pledged to keep interest rates low to 2013, and 3 FOMC members dissented, the highest # since 1992. A Downward Fan was already in progress (note the unchanged slope of the 50 / 100 / 200 SMAs before and after the report release except for the blip from the pre-report spike. DO NOT USE JOBB for this as it can break up to 10 min early or late. Keep an eye on the news and jump in after the announcement in the direction the market is heading. Low point occurred 27 min after report release.
-072711.jpg "Click to enlarge")
7/27/2011 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 99.06
Peak@ 98.06 – 0842 (42 min)
100ticks
Notes: Report was underperforming overall showing moderate or no economic growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 100 ticks over 42 minutes.
-072111.jpg "Click to enlarge")
7/21/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.40
1st Peak @ 101.12 – 0406 (6 min)
72 ticks
2nd Peak @ 101.32 – 0413 (13 min)
92 ticks
Reverse to 100.90 – 0420 (20 min)
42 ticks
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before Senate Banking Committee on the implementation of the Dodd Frank Act. Caused a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and minimal reversal. After seeing the big green candle at 0413, I would close out on the 0414 as soon as it started retracing.
-071411.jpg "Click to enlarge")
7/14/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (delayed)
Started @ 100.21 (0430)
Peak @ 96.06 – 0722 (172 min)
415 ticks
Reverse to 97.65 – 0818 (228 min)
159 ticks
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. in this case the surprise hit at 0430 during the QandA session when Bernanke quashed hopes of further stimulus after alluding to it the day before. The oil market fell off of a cliff in a long protracted downward FAN.
-071311.jpg "Click to enlarge")
7/13/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.14
1st Peak @ 98.54 – 0402 (2 min)
40 ticks
2nd Peak @ 98.68 – 0407 (7 min)
54 ticks
Reverse to 98.39 – 0411 (11 min)
29 ticks
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee. Caused a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and minimal reversal. After seeing the two candles 0407-8 hit the 200 SMA and retrace, I would close out at the 200 SMA. The typical influence of these reports runs out at 20-30 min, but in this case the oil inventory report follows at 0430 causing pre-report speculators to increase the volatility.