FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 212013

5/10/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 94.20
1st Peak @ 94.09 – 0932 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 94.44 – 0950 (20 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.37 – 1054 (84 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 94.08 – 1115 (105 min)
71 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the Federal Reserve Bank’s 49th annual conference on Bank Structure and Competition in Chicago. He discussed and defended the FED policies in monitoring the financial system. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 94.15 with no slippage on the :31 bar. Then it fell for only 11 ticks as the :31-:33 bars found support at 94.09. With the market having trended lower about 70 ticks in the previous 30 min and near the LOD, be wary of hanging around for a larger short move. After all 3 bars could not penetrate 94.09 and the LOD was looming only 8 ticks lower, look to exit at about breakeven on or around the 20 SMA. After the peak, we saw a reversal of 35 ticks in 20 min. After it collided with the 100 SMA, it fell again for a 2nd peak of 83 ticks in the next hr. Then it reversed for 71 ticks in about 20 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 092013

5/1/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 90.69 (1400)
1st Peak @ 90.92 – 1404 (4 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 91.22 – 1453 (53 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 90.90 – 1553 (113 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused an initially choppy reaction which developed into an upward fan as the DX fell. We saw 53 ticks gained in a little less than an hour and into the pit close. Then it took another hour to slowly reverse for 32 ticks having to fight through the 50 and 100 SMAs. After seeing the news and the DX reaction in the first few minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, when it dropped below the 100 SMA in the first 10 min, then stay in until the 13 crosses the 20 SMA.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.20.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 092013

3/20/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.99 (1400)
1st Peak @ 93.34 – 1403 (3 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 93.03 – 1411 (11 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.60 – 1425 (25 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 93.43 – 1500 (60 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL to trend long and the DX to short initially, then recover and short again. We saw a 35 tick spike over 3 bars, then a reversal of 31 ticks in the next 7 min. Then it geared up for a larger 2nd peak of 61 ticks, riding the 13 SMA as support and peaking 5 min before the pit close. After seeing the news and the DX reaction in the first few minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, when it dropped below the 50 SMA and hit the PP Pivot at 93.07 on the :10 – :11 bars. Stay in until you have a bar settle below the 20 with the 13 crossing the 20 and/or the MACD cross. Both happened at about 1445, giving you an exit with at least 40 ticks of profit. As the pit closed, the final reversal was small and slow developing for only 17 ticks in 35 min.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 092013

1/30/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.82 (1415)
1st Peak @ 97.67 – 1417 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 97.92 – 1418 (3 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL and the DX to seesaw changing sentiment every minute such that it went short 15 ticks, then long 25, then repeated the trend. Over the longer term it trended mildly higher using the 50 SMA as support and eventually the R1 Pivot as resistance. After hearing the news and seeing the reaction in the first 5 minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, using the major SMA cluster at 97.67 as your stop loss area. Sell the rips when it moves about 25 ticks away from the 50 SMA. You could have done that once or twice in the hour following the report.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

May 092013

4/17/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.67
1st Peak @ 86.82 – 1401 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.96 – 1407 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 86.62 – 1430 (30 min)
34 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy overall was expanding at a moderate pace last month, specifically noting increases in manufacturing activity. The DX slowly trended upward, and then accelerated after 1430, so it had little influence on the CL. This resulted in a spike of 15 ticks that was unsustainable on the :01 bar, but was matched on the :02/:03 bars as it eclipsed the 200 SMA. Then after 5 min, it was able to clear the 200 SMA and achieve a 2nd peak of 29 ticks on the :07 bar, but that was it. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 86.74 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait patiently for a move after a few min. Since the oil inventory report had caused a large selloff that was correcting, the market is slightly bullish in the very short term. Use that to your advantage when patiently waiting for penetration of the 200 SMA. With little movement on the DX, you could exit after the :07 bar, or after 13 crossed the 20 SMA at about 1422 with 10 – 20 ticks. After that, the reversal crossed the 200 SMA and reclaimed 34 ticks a few min later.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

May 092013

3/6/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.92
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1403 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 89.94 – 1406 (6 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 90.50 – 1450 (50 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 90.37 – 1529 (89 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. The DX stayed mostly flat after the report, but the CL rallied. This resulted in a spike of 17 ticks in 3 bars, followed by a small reversal. Then it turned into an upward fan riding the 13 elevator up to 90.50 about 20 min after the pit closed. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 89.98 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit quickly for about 10 ticks. If you chose to stay in for the longer term, stay in until the 13 crosses the 20 or the MACD crosses and trail a stop a few ticks below the 20 SMA. Look to exit at about 90.48 when the pit closed and it traded sideways for several minutes for about 50 ticks. After that, the reversal was only able to garner 13 ticks in about 40 min due to the significant drop in volume.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

FED Testimony Comments Off

May 092013

2/27/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 92.50
1st Peak @ 92.58 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reverse to 92.45 – 1004 (4 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.88 – 1013 (13 min)
38 ticks

Reverse to 92.70 – 1020 (20 min)
18 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. In this case, most of the air was let out of the balloon on the previous day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and nothing surprising transpired in the Q & A. This was seen as an initial long dull reaction, then a slightly larger 2nd peak of 38 ticks in 13 min to cross the 200 SMA. Then we saw a reversal of 18 ticks before it chopped sideways approaching the oil inventory report at 10:30.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.26.2013

FED Testimony Comments Off

May 092013

2/26/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 93.44 (1003)
1st Peak @ 93.07 – 1008 (5 min)
37 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.17 – 1144 (101 min)
127 ticks

Reverse to 92.75 – 1241 (158 min)
58 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Chmn Bernanke defended the FED’s policy of open ended asset purchases stating that the risk of inflation is well contained and the benefit far outweighs any risks to the economy. The markets responded positively with the dollar rallying causing the CL to fall. The long reaction from 10:00 to 10:03 was due to a strong Consumer Confidence report. If that report had not been there, the market would have traded sideways until 10:03. If you noticed the dollar rally and shorted the CL, the first exit point would have been the 200 SMA at 10:34. The reversal claimed 58 ticks in about 1 hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.12.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 062013

4/12/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.95
1st Peak @ 91.17 – 1233 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1243 (13 min)
31 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the “Resilience and Rebuilding for Low-Income Communities” Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Community Affairs Officers, in Washington DC. He did not discuss QE3, but spoke about low income housing and the housing market as a whole. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 91.00 with no slippage on the :02 bar. This is a case where the first bar would not have filled as it only moved 4 ticks on either side of the anchor point. Be patient and wait for the :02 bar. With the 50 and 200 SMAs looming above, watch the initial interaction and move the stop loss up to 1-2 ticks lower than the 200 SMA. When the bars after the :03 could not achieve a higher level and no bar was able to establish space above the 200 SMA, look to exit around 91.08 before it hits your stop loss. Then you would secure 3-8 ticks. The reversal reclaimed 31 ticks, eclipsing the 100 SMA in 10 min. Even though this was Friday afternoon news, it still was a safe opportunity and relatively tame.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.8.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 052013

4/8/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1915 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.42 – 1916 (1 min)
4 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2013 Financial Markets Conference about the stress test results of the banks. Due to the time of day, narrowly into the thinly traded Asian market session, we saw a dull reaction with low volume. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled. In this case, after about 2 min, cancel the order. Even if you had left it on the chart, the long move at 1954 would have given you a small profit. We will not recommend FED Speeches after the pit close and out of the US trading session again.

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