ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 207K
Actual: 213K
Previous revision: -2K to 202K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009102 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009096 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009104 – 0815:59 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009122 – 0824 (9 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009131 – 0902 (47 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009093 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009083 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009110 (just above the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot / 0.009122 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast to cause a tame whipsaw that fell 6 ticks then reversed 8 ticks through the course of the :31 bar. That would have missed the inner short entry by 3 ticks, making it an easy decision to cancel the order. Since it was a near match and only moved 6 ticks from the origin, a manual entry would not be prudent. After the initial reversal of 8 ticks, it climbed another 18 ticks in 8 min to the PP Pivot, then another 9 ticks in 38 min to the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 214K
Actual: 230K
Previous revision: +12K to 225K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008718 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008710 – 0815:05 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008725 – 0816:24 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008716 – 0820 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008737 – 0825 (10 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008710 (just below the S4 Mid Pivot) / 0.008699 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008726 (just above the 100 SMA / 0.008736 (just above the S3 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 16k above the forecast to cause an 8 tick short move in 5 sec followed by a 15 ticks reversal after a about 80 sec. This would have barely filled your inner long entry if you had it at 0.008710, otherwise it would have just missed. It also hovered below the S4 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec to allow an easy entry by manually moving the tier up by 1-3 ticks. The reversal was typical, going beyond the origin and taking a little over a minute. Look to exit near the 100 SMA for about 14 ticks. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the 20 SMA in 3 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 5 min, crossing the 100/200 SMAs and the S3 Pivot in 5 min. After that it traded sideways around the 200 SMA and S3 Pivot for about 20 min before drifting lower.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 223K
Actual: 208K
Previous revision: +3K to 233K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008377 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008373 – 0815:09 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008387 – 0828 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 0853 (38 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008369 (just below the LOD) / 0.008357 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008386 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (on the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 15k below the forecast to cause only a 6 tick long move immediately followed by a 10 tick reversal after 9 sec. This would have fallen short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 12 more min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the OOD. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 25 min as it reached the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.7.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/7/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 227K
Actual: 241K
Previous revision: +19K to 227K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008385 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008387 – 0817:45 (3 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.008369 – 0826 (11 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008387 – 0844 (38 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008375 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008366 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008394 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008404 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 14k above the forecast to cause a quick and fleeting 16 tick short move in 2 sec to cross the S2 Mid Pivot followed by a 9 tick reversal after 8 sec then another 9 ticks in the next 2.5 min. This would have filled the inner long entry with 6 ticks to spare but missed the outer tier by 3 ticks. The reversal was quick, but it remained around the fill point for about a minute before ascending back to the 20 SMA in the next 2 bars allowing about 9 ticks to be captured on the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a double bottom in 8 min before reversing 18 ticks in 27 min to cross the 50 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 022015

2/4/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 224K
Actual: 213K
Previous revision: +12K to 253K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008515 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008520 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008510 – 0817:58 (3 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008518 – 0822 (7 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008503 – 0838 (23 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.008518 – 0911 (56 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008506 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008497 (below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008523 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008534 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in 12k above the forecast to cause a quick and small 5 tick long spike to the 200 / 50 SMAs followed by a reversal of 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the PP Pivot / OOD. This would have missed the inner short entry by 3 ticks and not provided a manual entry opportunity. It fell back to the area of the origin quickly then took about 2.5 min to fall another 5 ticks. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 7 min to the 100 SMA before reversing 15 ticks in 16 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back 15 ticks in 33 min to cross the 200 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 272015

3/4/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 219K
Actual: 212K
Previous revision: +37K to 250K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008362 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008351 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008360 – 0815:08 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008354 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008371 – 0822 (7 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.008363 – 0831 (16 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008352 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008342 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008370 (just above the HOD) / 0.008382 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 7k below the forecast offset by a large upward previous revision to cause a quick 11 tick short spike to the S1 Mid Pivot followed by a reversal of 9 ticks in the next 6 sec to the PP Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry perfectly with 1 tick to spare then allowed 7-8 ticks to be captured immediately, or more later if you were patient. After the immediate reversal, it pulled back 6 ticks 13 sec later to the OOD area before reversing 17 ticks in the next 6 min to the HOD. It would have been safe to wait for a larger reversal than the initial 9 ticks since the report was conflicting between the current result and past revision. After the reversal it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.1.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 092015

4/1/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 227K
Actual: 189K
Previous revision: +2K to 214K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008329 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008352 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008339 – 0815:06 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008349 – 0815:53 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008342 – 0816:06 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008358 – 0823 (8 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.008344 – 0851 (36 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008319 (on the LOD / just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.008310 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008339 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008349 (in between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in 38k below the forecast offset with a negligible previous revision to cause a quick 23 tick long spike that started on the 200 SMA and rose to reach the R1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries making your average short position 0.008344. Then it would have allowed a breakeven exit or 2 ticks of profit on the initial reversal or 2-4 ticks on the next reversal With the PP Pivot influencing the resistance, it would be okay to be patient. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to nearly reach the R1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 28 min to reach the 50 SMA / PP Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/3/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 198K
Actual: 201K
Previous revision: -4K to 165K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008040 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008031 – 0815:12 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008036 – 0816:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008029 – 0817 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008034 – 0820 (5 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008032 (just below the LOD) / 0.008022 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008049 (no SMA /Pivot near) / 0.008058 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with a negligible revision to the previous report to cause a 9 tick short spike that started just above the 200 SMA and fell to cross the LOD. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare then only reversed 5 ticks to allow about 2-3 ticks to be captured. If you did not exit at the first opportunity and waited a few min, you have seen the same result after 5 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Aug 022015

7/1/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 219K
Actual: 237K
Previous revision: +2K to 203K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008137 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008128 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008137 – 0815:07 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008130 – 0815:24 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008136 – 0816:02 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008127 – 0821 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008139 – 0845 (30 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008128 (No Pivot / SMA near) / 0.008118 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008146 (No SMA /Pivot near) / 0.008156 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 18K better that the forecast with a negligible revision to the previous report to cause a 9 tick short spike that started on the 13 SMA and fell to extend the LOD then reverse. This would have just barely missed the inner long entry and not allowed a manual adjusted entry. It reversed 9 ticks in 6 sec then fell 7 ticks in 17 sec. After that it reversed 6 ticks before falling 9 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 24 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.5.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Sep 092015

8/5/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 216K
Actual: 185K
Previous revision: -8K to 229K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008053 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008065 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008058 – 0816:40 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008067 – 0823 (8 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008050 – 0832 (17 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008043 (in between the OOD / 200 SMA) / 0.008035 (just below the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008062 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008072 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 31K worse that the forecast with a moderate downward revision to the previous report to cause a 12 tick long spike that started on the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Pivot. This would have filled the inner short tier at 0.008062 with 3 ticks to spare, then allowed 2-4 ticks to be captured after 1.5 min. After that it climbed for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 6 min to the R1 Pivot before reversing for 17 ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

Older Entries Newer Entries