ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.26.2013

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May 092013
 

ZB 06-13 (1 Min)  4_26_2013

4/26/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast:  3.1%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’15
1st Peak@ 148’23 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’16 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a long and unsustainable spike of 8 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs but the R3 and R4 Mid Pivots as it was already trending higher.  It eclipsed the R4 Mid Pivot and fell, leaving 5 ticks of the wick naked.  Our Stop loss was also rejected as the CME now disallows stop limit orders with the default setting of 20 ticks for ATM strategies in Ninja. Bizarre reaction overall as we had a reasonably solid forecast and a decent offset for a disappointment.  A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 148’21 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to bob between 2-4 ticks in the red.  I manually restored the stop at 5 ticks and patiently waited to exit with a 2 tick loss, but it eventually achieved a double top 15 min after the news to allow for 1-2 ticks of profit max.  The reversal yielded 7 ticks in about an hour as it retreated to near the origin.  Then it traded sideways.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.13

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Apr 272013
 

CL 03-13 (1 Min)  1_30_2013

1/30/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast:  1.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +1.1% to 3.1%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.83
1st Peak@ 97.46 – 0831 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 97.74 – 0836 (6 min)
28 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a short spike of 37 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs or Pivots as it was already trending lower.  It bottomed out at 97.46 on the 100 SMA on the 15 min chart.  Normally an offset of over 1% on the GDP would provide a much larger reaction, but with a dismal forecast of only 1.1%, expectations were pessimistic to begin with.  A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 97.74 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 20 ticks toward the end of the bar.  If you look at the DX index for this time period, it did not move much, surprisingly.  The reversal came quickly in the next 5 min for 28 ticks up to the 13 SMA.  After that it fell for a double bottom, then chopped sideways in a 25 tick range.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.26.12

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Oct 262012
 


CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.26.12

10/26/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 1.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.83
1st Peak @ 86.17 – 0231 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 85.98 – 0232 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.34 – 0239/0255 (9/25 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 85.69 – 0320 (50 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast but still showed relatively anemic growth. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. The initial spike yielded 34 ticks and only had to cross the PP Pivot close to the origin. The market was basically neutral prior to the report having initiated a bullish trend, but enduring a minor correction right before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 85.93 with 3 ticks of slippage. I set my exit at 86.13 and filled easily with 20 ticks. I placed a secondary order, buying at 85.99 at the bottom of the :32 bar and planned to ride it for about 30 or so ticks. Unfortunately I closed out on the tail of the :36 bar with 1 tick loss when I thought it was going to continue short. Had I been more patient, I would have exited on the :39 bar with 30 ticks. The choppy path of ascending indicates volatility and lack of conviction. In this case do not look to stay in a trend trade for 30 min. After it hit the 2nd peak of 51 ticks on the :39 bar, it traded sideways for another 15 min before reversing for 65 ticks. The reversal crossed the 50, then 100, and almost reached the 200 SMA.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.27.12

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Jul 272012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.27.12

7/27/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 1.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.89
1st Peak@ 90.03 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 89.29 – 0250 (20 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and produced an overall long term indecisive reaction that resulted in a seesaw above and below the 200 SMA for over 90 min. I categorized it as a SPIKE/REVERSE because it adheres to that model and then repeats it several times. Even though it matched the forecast, the forecast of only 1.5% GDP growth over a year is very dismal. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. When you see the initial long reaction on the :31 bar with a matching poor forecast, do not stay in long. Look to get a few ticks and move your stop loss up to breakeven. After the initial rise, it chopped lower fighting through all of the SMAs and the PP Pivot to drop to 89.29 in 20 min. Then it climbed back to above the 3 SMAs and continued oscillating. If you look at the DX index for this time period, the trend followed the inverse of the CL, hitting a peak on the 02:50 bar then falling after that for 90 min (04:23 peak) and going sideways. With a heavy economic report like this, keep an eye on the DX to dictate what oil will do.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.27.12

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Jan 272012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.27.12

1/27/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.0%
Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 1.8%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 100.24
1st Peak@ 99.80 – 0331 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.30 – 0401/0413 (31/43 min)
94 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 100.40 – 0446 (76 min)
110 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative, and the previous revision was strongly negative. This contributed to the downward fan. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. After seeing the double bottom at 99.30, I would close out. Then I would trade the reversal for about 30 min.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.27.11

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Oct 272011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.27.11

10/27/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: none
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 93.25
1st Peak@ 93.57 – 0231 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.05 – 0248 (18 min)
80 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.11 – 0313/0316 (43/46 min)
86 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 92.98 – 0351 (81 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly positive, with no previous revision. This caused an upward fan of medium amount. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. After seeing the double top at 94.05, I would close out. The reversal took about 35 min and yielded more ticks – also good to trade.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.29.11

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Jul 292011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 07.29.11

7/29/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: -1.4% to 0.4%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 97.59
1st Peak@ 97.08 – 0231 (1 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.81 – 0316 (46 min)
178 ticks

Reversal to 96.69 – 0357 (87 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, with a large previous downward revision. This contributed to the large downward fan. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. I would close out around the S3 line @95.87. Also notice the hovering at the s2 line between 0230 and 0300, then the precipitous fall after the 0300 open. Then I would trade the reversal for about 30 min. The report was so negative, that the reversal was miniscule in comparison to the initial move.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 04.28.11

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Apr 282011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 04.28.11

4/28/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 3.1%
INDECISIVE

Notes: Report was slightly negative, with a small previous downward revision. Normally this should be enough to cause a decisive downward fan, but it was volatile in this case. I would have used the JOBB strategy here, get in short and then let the stop loss work to mitigate the loss going long. Also notice the 0301 candle right after the open was indecisive. This reaction did not follow the routine at all.