4/5/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 54.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.0090625
Head Fake @ 0.0090645 – 1000:07 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.0090490 – 1001:17 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.0090620 – 1015 (15 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.0090640 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.0090620 – 4 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Strange reaction as we saw a slow mild head fake in the long (wrong) direction. Be wary with this situation as you are seeing a long fill with the results and hovering on the fill point. Either exit quickly or move the stop to a very tight spot. After 30 sec it started to trickle short and gained momentum to achieve 27 ticks in 47 sec. Then a reversal back to the SMAs in 13 min.

2/3/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.1
Actual: 53.5
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008436
1st Peak @ 0.008464 – 1001:50 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.008444 – 1006 (6 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008522 – 1031 (31 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 0.008462 – 1048 (48 min)
60 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.008439 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.008463 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008452 (in between the R4 / R4 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Bullish report was assisted by a strong uptrend in the market to deliver a large 1st and final peak. The 1st peak reached the R4 Pivot, then once breached, no resistance barrier is left. Due to the large move from 1028 – 1031, it reversed strongly.

4/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.5
Actual: 53.1
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.009613
1st Peak @ 0.009623 – 1000:00 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009598 – 1000:01 (1 min)
-25 ticks

Pullback to 0.009620 – 1000:20 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009612 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009636 – 1038 (38 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009622 – 1115 (75 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Modestly negative report fell short of the forecast by 0.4 points to be nearly matching. This caused an unfortunate whipsaw that spiked up 10 ticks to hit the 200 SMA/ S2 Mid Pivot, then immediately reverse to the S3 Mid Pivot for 25 ticks, followed by an immediate pullback to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.009619 with 3 ticks of slippage, then been stopped with about 12 ticks including 4 ticks of slippage on the immediate reversal. This was due to the near matching results, but the violent whipsaw is still unusual. After the 1st bar, it rose for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot after 38 min, then fell 14 ticks to the 200 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot in the next 37 min.

6/4/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 56.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009749
1st Peak @ 0.009742 – 1002 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009738 – 1015 (15 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009748 – 1036 (36 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Modestly positive report exceeded the forecast by 0.7 points to be nearly matching. This caused a short reaction of only 7 ticks that started on the 200 SMA and fell to reach the S2 Mid Pivot on the :02 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009745 with 1 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 2-3 ticks with patience on the :02 bar. It initially struggled with the S1 Pivot, then was able to drop to reach the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded only 3 ticks to the 13 SMA before claiming 4 more ticks on a 2nd peak to the S2 Pivot after 15 min. After that it reversed 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot and 100 SMA in the next 21 min.

8/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.6
Actual: 58.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009734
1st Peak @ 0.009729 – 1000:01 (1 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009726 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009732 – 1008 (8 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009717 – 1033 (33 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009729 – 1103 (63 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report exceeded the forecast by 2.1 points. This caused a short reaction of only 5 ticks that started between the 13 SMA and the LOD and fell to extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009731 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks in the latter part of the :31 bar after some retracement. It was restrained from going much lower due to extending the LOD, but managed to capture many more ticks in the follow on reaction. After falling 3 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot on the :03 bar, it reversed for 6 ticks back to the 13 SMA in 5 min. Then it fell for a final peak of 9 more ticks to nearly reach the S3 Pivot just after the bottom of the hour. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 30 min , crossing the S3 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA and continued to step higher over several hours.