6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.3.2014

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Oct 222014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  10_3_2014

10/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.5
Actual: 58.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009121
1st Peak @ 0.009115 – 1000:01 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009123 – 1000:22 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 0.009114 – 1001:13 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009122 – 1008 (8 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast to cause a shortly sustained short reaction of 6 ticks that reversed after hitting the S3 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD 22. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009117 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover for about 5 sec on four fill point before reversing. If you were quick you would have been able to exit at breakeven before the reversal. Otherwise, if you were caught with a few ticks in the red, be patient and wait for it to come back. You would have seen 6 ticks of heat, then watched it fall into the :02 bar to hover at +2 ticks. With the down trend already in place from the NFP report 90 min earlier and a match, it is unlikely to go long. It reversed 8 ticks in 6 min as it continued to flirt with the S3 Mid Pivot, unable to penetrate until about 20 min later.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

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Nov 292014
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  11_5_2014

11/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 57.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008713
1st Peak @ 0.008724 – 1000:12 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008715 – 1003 (3 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008726 – 1009 (9 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008718 – 1012 (12 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.1 points to cause a long spike of 11 ticks that started on the S4 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008717 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen slowly climb to reach the SMAs after 12 sec then hover for about 10 sec. Look to exit at 0.008722 where it hovered for about 5 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 9 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of only 2 more ticks after 6 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 3 min to get tangled in the SMAs. After that it traded sideways for 15 min, then trended upward.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

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Jan 012015
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  12_3_2014

12/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 57.5
Actual: 59.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008355
1st Peak @ 0.008348 – 1000:00 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 1008 (8 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.008349 – 1013 (13 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008359 – 1022 (22 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.8 points to cause a short spike of 7 ticks that started just below the S3 Pivot and fell to reach the S4 Mid Pivot then retreat. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.008351 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it retreat to hover about 4 ticks in the red before falling again. The “whiplash” is due to hitting the S4 Mid Pivot while also extending the LOD. In this case since the report has enough of a disappointing result, be patient and wait for the secondary drop. It fell later in the bar to the fill point and hovered in the area for several min to allow an exit between breakeven and 1 tick loss. After that it reversed 12 ticks in the next 7 min to the 50 SMA before pulling back 11 ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 9 min and traded sideways around the S3 Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.6.2015

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Jan 152015
 

6J 03-15 (1 Min)  1_6_2015

1/6/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 56.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008417
1st Peak @ 0.008436 – 1001:59 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008420 – 1007 (7 min)
16 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008403 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 2.0 points to cause a long spike of 19 ticks that started just above the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot and eclipse the HOD after 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008421 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it slowly climb and conduct most of the ascent on the :32 bar. It did hover around 1-2 ticks of profit, but this is a case where there is no resistance barrier and a good forecast offset to allow a low risk wait for more ticks. Early exit would have secured 1-3 ticks, but a patient exit could have secured up to 15 ticks. After the peak, it reversed strongly due to the resistance of the R3 Mid Pivot and HOD, garnering 16 ticks in 5 min to the 13 SMA. Then it fell another 17 ticks in 25 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

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Mar 022015
 

6J 03-15 (1 Min)  2_4_2015

2/4/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.6
Actual: 56.7
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008518
1st Peak @ 0.008511 – 1000:04 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008520 – 1008 (8 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with only 0.1 pts offset. This caused a 7 tick short spike that started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the PP Pivot / 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008514 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it chop around the fill point before settling down to hover after 25 sec to allow 1 tick to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 9 ticks in 7 min to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it continued to chop between the PP and R1 Pivots for about 45 min and drifted lower.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

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Mar 272015
 

6J 03-15 (1 Min)  3_4_2015

3/4/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 56.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008358
1st Peak @ 0.008350 – 1001:09 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 1014 (14 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.4 pts. This caused a 8 tick short spike that started below the PP Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008355 with no slippage, then you would have seen it trickle lower to hover as the :01 bar transitioned on the S1 Mid Pivot to allow an exit with 4-5 ticks. After that it reversed 10 ticks in the next 12 min to the PP Pivot and traded sideways.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.5.2015

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May 072015
 

6J 06-15 (1 Min)  5_5_2015

5/5/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.2
Actual: 57.8
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008320
Premature spike to 0.008325 – 0959:59 (0 min)
5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.008309 – 1000:45 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008329 – 1023 (23 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008356 – 1108 (68 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.6 pts. We saw an unfortunate premature long move of only 5 ticks to the OOD 1 sec before the report release prior to the true spike of 11 ticks short. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008323 with no slippage, then you would have seen it fall to hit the 8 tick stop with no slippage. Then it continued to trickle lower for another 6 ticks later in the bar to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 20 ticks in 22 min to cross the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot, then another 27 ticks in 45 min to cross the R1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

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Jun 122015
 

6J 06-15 (1 Min)  6_3_2015

6/3/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.1
Actual: 55.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008044
1st Peak @ 0.008060 – 1000:43 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008054 – 1003 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008065 – 1010 (10 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.008048 – 1040 (40 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.4 pts. This caused a 16 tick long spike that started on the 13/20 SMAs and rose to cross the PP Pivot and OOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008048 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have seen it step up to cross the OOD allowing an exit with 10 ticks where it hovered. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 30 min after crossing the PP Pivot and 50 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.6.2015

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Aug 242015
 

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7_6_2015

7/6/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.008161
1st Peak @ 0.008164 – 1000:02 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008159 – 1002 (2 min)
5 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008152 – 1018 (18 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5 pts. This caused a 3 tick long move that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 50 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have barely filled at 0.008164 with no slippage, then you would have seen it fall to hover 1-2 ticks in the red for 12 sec. Look to exit there on the dull reaction. It reversed 5 ticks in 1 min then another 7 ticks in 16 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.5.2015

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Sep 082015
 

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8_5_2015

8/5/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.3
Actual: 60.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008028
1st Peak @ 0.008011 – 1001:52 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.008015 – 1005 (5 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008002 – 1023 (23 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008013 – 1030 (30 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a large margin of 4.0 pts. This caused a 17 tick short spike that started just above the S2 Pivot and fell to reach the S3 Mid Pivot in nearly 2 min. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008023 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall and trickle lower until reaching the S3 Mid Pivot allowing up to 12 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 4 ticks in 3 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 7 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot.