1/21/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -180B
Actual: -178B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.174
1st Peak @ 2.100 – 1031:44 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 2.127 – 1035 (5 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.080 – 1047 (17 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 2.183 – 1208 (98 min)
103 ticks

Pullback to 2.126 – 1241 (131 min)
57 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.161 (short)
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.101 – 60 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.132 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Stable short spike offered a low slippage fill as it stepped lower due to major SMAs spread out. After a 2nd peak eclipsed the S1 Pivot, it reversed slowly for over 100 ticks in about 80 min.

1/7/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -95B
Actual: -113B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.316
1st Peak @ 2.378 – 1030:39 (1 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 2.358 – 1036 (6 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.394 – 1103 (33 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 2.368 – 1118 (48 min)
23 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.429 – 1202 (92 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 2.396 – 1210 (100 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.339 (long)
Slippage: 13 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.377 – 38 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.355 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: A late peaking reaction as the R1 Pivot held it lower for a little while. Due to the larger offset it would be safe to be patient. It stepped higher for the next 100 min as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot.

6/20/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 95B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.890 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.951 – 1030 (1 min)
61 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.835 – 1031 (2 min)
116 ticks

Reversal to 3.927 – 1106 (6 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report saw a premature long spike of 61 ticks about 1-2 sec before the news that hit the PP Pivot, then after the release, it promptly reversed to the 1st peak for 116 ticks, nearly reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.915 with about 15 ticks of slippage on the premature spike. Due to the timing and large sized spike, close out quickly before the reversal on the matching report hits the stop loss. After the reversal completely shot down for 116 ticks, it quickly pulled back up leaving 44 ticks on the tail naked. Then it chopped sideways and eventually gained another 48 ticks for a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot after about 35 min. A 20-25 tick profit target and a breakeven setting of 20 seems to work well for these reports.

7/3/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1200 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 72B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.584 (1159)
1st Peak @ 3.645 – 1201 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 3.609 – 1202 (3 min)
36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.664 – 1213 (14 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 3.616 – 1253 (53 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Mildly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike without a premature move that crossed the PP Pivot and hit the OOD for 61 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 3.609 with about 15 ticks of slippage. A 20 tick profit target would have filled before internal retracement caused a stop out when it retreated 25 ticks before rallying long again. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 36 ticks to hit the S1 Mid Pivot, before heading long again for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks in 12 min, eclipsing the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed to nearly reach the 100 SMA in about 40 min for 48 ticks.

7/18/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 63B
Actual: 58B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.689 (1029)
Premature Spike @ 3.674 – 1030 (1 min)
15 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.780 – 1031 (1 min)
91 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.806 – 1046 (16 min)
117 ticks

Reversal to 3.783 – 1052 (22 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike that followed a premature move about 30 sec into the :30 bar as it was sitting on the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.679 with no slippage, then seen it hover within 5 ticks of your fill point. This is a case where you need to close out near breakeven before the real spike happens since it is early and has no correlation with the news. If you left the stop loss at 20 ticks and did not manually exit, you would have been stopped out with about a 45 tick loss including slippage on the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 26 more ticks in 15 min, crossing the R3 Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the next 6 min back to the R3 Pivot and 20 SMA. After that is traded sideways above the R3 Pivot, retaining the large change in trading range.