CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.15.2013

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May 192013
 

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2_15_2013

2/15/2013 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EST)
Forecast: -2.1
Actual: 10.0
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 97.06
1st Peak @ 97.02 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast. In spite of this, it is almost like the market was not paying attention as the 0831 bar only had a range of 5 ticks. This is a case with JOBB, where your order would not have filled. Close out your order after 15 sec without a spike. It is hard to day why this happened with strong bullish news, but occasionally the markets react or fail to react in the usual pattern. The delayed bullish run from 0834 to 0844 may have been due to the news, but it is hard to say.

CL 11-12 (1 Min) 9.17.2012

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May 192013
 

CL 11-12 (1 Min) 9_17_2012

9/17/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -1.9%
Actual: -10.4%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 99.03
1st Peak @ 98.95 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 99.10 – 0232 (2 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast. This resulted in a dull reaction of only 8 ticks probably due to a key level of support at the 98.95 area. We see that area tested unsuccessfully a few times in the hour before the report. It crossed no SMAs or Pivots. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 98.97 with 1 tick of slippage. Then when it failed to go lower and hovered near breakeven, close out. The Reversal bounced back for 15 ticks to cross the 50 SMA and hit the 100 SMA, but was unable to sustain the gain and left most of the wick naked. Then after chopping sideways for a few minutes, it was able to rally for the following hour after the report influence wore off.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 6.15.2012

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May 192013
 

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 6_15_2012

6/15/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 13.6%
Actual: 2.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.86
1st Peak @ 87.72 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.66 – 0836 (6 min)
20 ticks

Reverse to 87.93 – 0846 (16 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast. The market was trending lower overall and had been correcting upward before the report. The 50 SMA was used as resistance to trigger the short move. The initial peak yielded 14 ticks just below the 20 SMA, then after 5 min of trading sideways, it fell for a 2nd peak of 20 ticks to match a low achieved twice in the past hour. Then it reversed back up to the 200 SMA for 27 ticks in 10 min.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 2.15.2012

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 2_15_2012

2/15/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 14.7%
Actual: 19.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 101.65
1st Peak @ 101.78 – 0331 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 101.63 – 0334 (4 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast. The reaction was tempered by the 200 SMA. In this case, it popped up and quickly receded, so be quick on the trigger finger to close out with a few ticks.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 1.17.2012

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 1_17_2012

1/17/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 10.8%
Actual: 13.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.89 – 0331 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.06 – 0335 (5 min)
27 ticks

Retrace to 100.75 – 0339 – 0344 (9 – 14 min)
31 ticks (4x bottom)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast. The reaction was strong and steady, briefly topping the 100 and 200 SMAs. Then it reversed to the price level right before the report release at the R3 Pivot. Eventually it fought through short, but no longer due to influence from this report.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 12.15.2011

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 12_15_2011

12/15/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 9.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.04
1st Peak @ 96.27 – 0331 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.36 – 0337 (7 min)
32 ticks

Retrace to 95.98 – 0344 (14 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast. Thursday am report along with weekly unemployment claims (strong positive with 366K), and PPI (matching forecast). I would not trade this report due to 3 medium market movers braking at the same time. All positive news in this case drove the upward reaction.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 11.15.2011

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 11_15_2011

11/15/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -2.0%
Actual: 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.29
1st Peak @ 98.53 – 0331 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0340 (10 min)
28 ticks

Retrace to 98.35 – 0348 (18 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast. Retail Sales (Strong Positive) and PPI (Mild negative) broke at the same time. This caused strong spike in the 1st candle, then the rapid reversal on the 2nd candle. I would not trade due to 3 medium movers breaking at the same time.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 10.17.2011

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 10_17_2011

10/17/2012 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -3.9%
Actual: -8.5%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 87.56
1st Peak @ 87.29 – 0231 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reverse to 87.54 – 0235 (5 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast. Reaction fought through a FIST of all SMAs except 200. In this case, it popped down to just below the PP Pivot support line and quickly receded, yielding a big tail so be quick on the trigger finger to close out when it goes to the vicinity of the PP.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 9.15.2011

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 9_15_2011

9/15/2011 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -3.9%
Actual: -8.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.90
1st Peak @ 89.59 – 0231 (1 min)
31 ticks (2x bottom)

2nd Peak @ 89.55 – 0234 (4 min)
32 ticks

Retrace to 89.99 – 0243 (13 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast. Thursday am report along with weekly unemployment claims (mild negative with 428K), and CPI (matching forecast). I would not trade this report due to 3 medium market movers braking at the same time. All negative news in this case drove the downward reaction.

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 8.15.2011

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May 192013
 

CL 03-12 (1 Min) 8_15_2011

8/15/2011 Empire State Manufacturing Index (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: -7.7%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 86.36
1st Peak @ 86.28 / 86.44 – 0231 (1 min)
+/- 8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast. Dull reaction. Report was either priced in or news broke on previous candle. Cancel out of order if not filled in 10 sec. If filled close out with minimal gain or loss.

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