9/12/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 84.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009322 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009319 – 0956:36 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009323 – 0957:51 (3 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009335 – 1017 (22 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 0.009318 – 1044 (49 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009316 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009306 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009328 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.009339 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by only 1.4 points causing a dull 3 tick short spike after 96 sec as it tested the area of support near the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot, but did not have the impulse and momentum to break through, so it retreated 4 ticks after 1 more min. This would have missed you inner long entry and shown no real movement, so cancel the order. After the initial reversal, it continued to climb for another 12 ticks in the next 20 min, crossing the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 27 min to reach the LOD. After that it traded sideways between the S1 Pivot and LOD.

11/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 87.3
Actual: 89.4
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0008577 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008570 – 0956:52 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008575 – 0957:38 (3 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008603 – 1007 (12 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 0.008587 – 1011 (16 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008572 (just below the S3 Pivot) / 0.008561 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008583 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008593 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by 2.1 points causing a slow 7 tick short spike after nearly 2 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Since it only moved 4 ticks initially then retreated 2 ticks, do not look for a manual entry and cancel the order after 20 sec. After peaking it reversed 5 ticks in about 45 sec, then another 28 ticks in 9 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA and traded sideways.

1/16/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)*Late time change
Forecast: 94.2
Actual: 98.2
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0008549 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008543 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Hovering @ 0.008543 until 1000:07 (1 min)

)))2nd peak @ 0.008526 – 1000:42 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008540 – 1001:50 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008527 – 1009 (9 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008544 – 1016 (16 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008543 (just above the LOD) / 0.008534 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008556 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008563 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: There was a late decision to move the report to a more normal release time at 1000, but this would likely have caught you by surprise. Had you traded it at 0955, you can see it would have resulted in a cancel due to a small move. That would have been a fortunate blessing in this case as we had a 2nd consecutive report with a large deviation to cause a relatively huge move. The report came in higher than the forecast by 4.0 points causing an initial 6 tick short move, then another 17 ticks in the next 42 sec which would have filled your inner and outer tiers then peaked at 8 ticks of heat on the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 14 ticks to allow a best case exit at 0.008539 for a breakeven exit. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in 7 min for a double bottom before reversing 17 ticks to nearly reach the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA. After 1016, the market continued to fall in line with the downtrend that started at about 0915.

3/13/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 95.6
Actual: 91.2
Previous Revision: +1.8 to 95.4
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008231 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008238 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008227 – 1001:46 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008239 – 1009 (9 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008233 – 1014 (14 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008225 (just below the LOD) / 0.008216 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008237 (in between the 100 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008246 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The report came in lower than the forecast by 4.4 points but was offset by a moderate upward previous revision causing a 7 tick long move immediately. This would have filled your inner short entry with 1 tick to spare, then fallen gradually for 11 ticks in the next 1.5 min. Look to exit just below the 20 SMA with about 8 ticks. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak that achieved 1 more tick in 7 min before reversing 6 ticks in 5 min to the 50 SMA.

5/15/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 95.8
Actual: 88.6
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008362 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 1000:03 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008365 – 1000:34 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008392 – 1034 (34 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.008381 – 1045 (45 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008355 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008347 (just below the 200 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008368 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.008377 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: The report came in lower than the forecast by 7.2 points. This caused a quick long spike for 7 ticks followed by a reversal of 4 ticks. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.008368, then allowed 2-3 ticks to be captured where it hovered midway through the :31 bar. Due to the strong offset from the forecast to the result, look to exit with the first hovering after a reversal. After that it slowly climbed for a final peak of 23 more ticks in 33 min as it nearly reached the PP Pivot and HOD. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 11 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.