ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.13.2014

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 8.13.2014
Aug 312014
 

ZB 09-14 (1 Min)  8_13_2014

8/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 138’22
1st Peak @ 138’30 – 0830:29 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 139’07 – 0902 (32 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 138’30 – 0935 (65 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report was weak missing the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.2% margins with no previous revisions. This caused a stable long reaction of 12 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the OOD, the S1 Mid Pivot, and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 138’26 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 2-3 ticks near the S1 Mid Pivot as it hovered near the top in the :31 and :32 bars. After a minimal reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 31 min offering a nice long entry opportunity when it bounced off of the 13/20 SMAs at 0845. It crossed the PP Pivot and reached the R1 mid Pivot, then reversed for 9 ticks in 33 min back to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied again in the longterm.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.12.2014

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.12.2014
Sep 202014
 

ZB 12-14 (1 Min)  9_12_2014

9/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 136’17
1st Peak @ 136’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 136’11 – 0832 (2 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 136’16 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 136’07 – 0838 (8 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 136’16 – 0848 (18 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 136’02 – 0912 (42 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was strong exceeding the forecasts by 0.1% and 0.3% margins with healthy upward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time, falling slightly short of the forecast. This caused a brief long spike for 5 ticks that reversed quickly then continued an overall downtrend over the next hour. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 136’20 with no slippage, then seen it fall and stop you out with -4 ticks immediately. The tight stop still makes this report safer when it is unstable. After the reversal fell 10 ticks in the early part of the :32 bar, it established a pattern of pullback followed by reversal, carving out new lows, using the 50 SMA as resistance, while crossing the S4 Mid Pivot 42 min after the report.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.15.2014

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.15.2014
Oct 272014
 

ZB 12-14 (1 Min)  10_15_2014

10/15/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (UPWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 143’08 (shift to 143’10)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’17 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 143’14 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 143’28 – 0831:08 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 143’21 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 148’00 – 0940 (70 min)
150 ticks

Reversal to 144’17 – 1039 (129 min)
111 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 143’05 (on the 100 SMA) / 143’02 (on the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 143’15 (just below the HOD) / 143’18 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with PPI and Empire State Manufacturing, so we used the Trap Trade approach as the odds of a conflicting / indecisive situation are much higher than the opposite. All of the news was negative with core and regular retail sales falling 0.4% and 0.2% short of the forecast. This caused a long move of 7 ticks initially that crossed the HOD and hovered for 19 sec. This would have filled the inner short entry with 2 tick to spare, then hovered between 2 ticks of heat and 1 tick of profit. After seeing the results, look to exit with about 1 tick loss as it is bound to continue climbing. You could also reverse the trade and jump in long as a 2nd peak is a near certainty. It climbed another 11 ticks in the next bar to the R3 Mid Pivot, then reversed 7 ticks. After that it continued to step higher as panic mode took over on the disappointing news to climb 130 more ticks in the next 68 min. Then it collapsed in the next 60 min to give back 111 ticks to the 200 SMA.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014
Dec 012014
 

ZB 12-14 (1 Min)  11_14_2014

11/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’04
1st Peak @ 140’31 – 0830:06 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 141’04 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 140’27 – 0840 (10 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 141’07 – 0859 (29 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly strong, exceeding the forecasts by 0.1% margins with an upward previous revision on the core reading. Import Prices also released at the same time, exceeding the forecast. This caused a short spike for 5 ticks that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to the S1 Pivot and hovered. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 141’01 with no slippage, then seen it settle to hover between 141’00 and 140’31. Look to exit there for 1-2 ticks. After that it reversed back to the origin at the beginning of the :32 bar then chopped lower for a final peak of 4 more ticks after 8 min, nearly reaching the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the PP Pivot in 19 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

 Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on 6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2014
Jan 012015
 

6J 12-14 (1 Min)  12_11_2014

6J 12-14 (Second)  12_11_2014

Caption for 12/11:

12/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008443
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008430 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008440 – 0831:54 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008385 – 0952 (82 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 1000 (90 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008431 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008424 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008454 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008462 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: All the news came in strong to cause a short reaction of 13 ticks in 1 sec to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then taken nearly 2 min to reverse for 10 ticks allowing about 8 ticks to be captured where it hovered. After that, the gravity of the report continued to pull the market lower for another 45 ticks in the next 80 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA. After that it continued to trade near the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

 Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014
Jan 022015
 

ZB 03-15 (1 Min)  12_11_2014ZB 03-15 (Second)  12_11_2014

12/11/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 144’06)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’29 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’06 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 144’02 – 0831:15 (2 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’08 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 143’18 – 0937 (67 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 143’26 – 0958 (88 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’01 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 143’30 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 144’11 (just above the 100 SMA) / 144’14 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in stronger that the forecast. This caused a short move of 9 ticks initially that crossed the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot then retreated. This would have filled both long entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 143’31.5. It reversed for 9 ticks quickly and hovered at 144’05 for 5 sec to allow an exit with 11 total ticks. After a pullback of 4 ticks, it reversed 6 ticks to provide a hovering exit at 144’06 for 13 total ticks. After that it fell for a final peak of 11 more ticks in the next hour after crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 21 min back to the 50 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.14.2015

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.14.2015
Feb 072015
 

ZB 03-15 (1 Min)  1_14_2015

1/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.0%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’06
1st Peak @ 149’22 – 0831:57 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 149’18 – 0833 (3 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 150’10 – 0848 (18 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 149’19 – 0936 (66 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was extremely weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.9% and 1.1% margins with large downward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time, exceeding the forecast, but was ignored due to the earthquake caused by retail sales. This caused a long spike for 9 ticks immediately that started on the 13 SMA / R1 Pivot and rose to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it slowly climbed another 7 ticks in the next 1.5 min to peak at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 149’12 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. Given the scenario, be patient and watch how it interacts with the pivots. Up to 10 ticks could have been captured late in the :32 bar. After a small reversal of 4 ticks, it climbed for a final peak of 20 more ticks to the R3 Mid Pivot in the next 15 min. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 48 min to the R2 Pivot and 100 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

 Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015
Mar 152015
 

ZB 03-15 (1 Min)  2_12_2015ZB 03-15 (Second)  2_12_2015

2/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.4%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 146’01
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’10 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’07 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 146’12 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 146’07 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 147’06 – 0959 (89 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 1034 (124 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 145’28 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 145’25 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 146’06 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 146’09 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in much weaker than the forecast. This caused a long move of 9 ticks initially in 5 sec. This would have filled both short entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 146’07.5. It reversed for only 3 ticks to allow an exit at 146’07 or 146’08 with 1 tick loss or profit. Look to exit quickly after a small retreat since it is likely to continue to step higher on such biased news. It ran into resistance on the S1 Pivot before climbing for a final peak of 26 more ticks in the next 86 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 35 min to the 100 SMA / PP Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

 Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on 6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015
Mar 152015
 

6J 03-15 (1 Min)  2_12_2015 6J 03-15 (Second)  2_12_2015

2/12/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008355
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008371 – 0830:55 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008379 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008368 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008390 – 0842 (12 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.008368 – 0859 (29 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008408 – 0946 (76 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 1017 (107 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008344 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008335 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008375 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: All the news came in very weak to cause a long reaction of 22 ticks in 3 sec and another 6 ticks in the following 22 sec to eclipse the R2 Pivot. This would have filled both of your short entries with 8 ticks to spare and just within the stop. This would have put you short with an average position of 0.008370.5. The initial reversal would fallen to allow an exit with 1 tick loss. If you waited until after the pullback and ensuing reversal, you could have secured 3-5 ticks of profit as it hovered between 0.008368 and 68 for 10 sec. After that it rallied for a 2nd peak for 7 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 22 ticks in 17 min to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a slow developing final peak for 18 more ticks in 47 min as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 31 min to the 100 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015

 Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015
Apr 012015
 

ZB 06-15 (1 Min)  3_12_2015ZB 06-15 (1 Range)  3_12_2015

3/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -1.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 159’31
Wrong Direction spike to 159’27 – 0830:01 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 160’26 – 0830:51 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 160’15 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 160’09 – 0906 (36 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 160’25 – 0925 (55 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 159’30 – 1011 (101 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report was extremely weak for a second straight month. After seeing the retail results trending to overshadow the claims lately when double booked, we shifted to the bracket approach which would have also fared better last month. Well, manipulation came into play here similar to the NFP as we saw a 4 tick short move followed by whipsaw conditions for 2 sec, then a nice long spike for 27 ticks to the R2 Pivot which is excessively large for this report. The claims offset the report and may have been responsible for the opening indecision. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 159’27 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been immediately stopped out with a 5 tick loss (including 1 tick of slippage). The tight stop would have been useful here for protection. With such an oversized spike, you can expect a good reversal. We saw a 11 tick drop in the next 2 min to the R2 Mid Pivot, then another 6 ticks in the next 33 min to the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks for nearly a double top in 19 min before reversing 27 ticks to the origin in 46 min. So even with the loss on the initial trade, it was a good scenario to trade a reversal and more than make up for the loss.