8/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 138’22
1st Peak @ 138’30 – 0830:29 (1 min)
8 ticks
2nd Peak @ 139’07 – 0902 (32 min)
17 ticks
Reversal to 138’30 – 0935 (65 min)
9 ticks
Notes: Report was weak missing the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.2% margins with no previous revisions. This caused a stable long reaction of 12 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the OOD, the S1 Mid Pivot, and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 138’26 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 2-3 ticks near the S1 Mid Pivot as it hovered near the top in the :31 and :32 bars. After a minimal reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 31 min offering a nice long entry opportunity when it bounced off of the 13/20 SMAs at 0845. It crossed the PP Pivot and reached the R1 mid Pivot, then reversed for 9 ticks in 33 min back to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied again in the longterm.