CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.11.13

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Jan 112013
 


CL 2 13 (1 Min) 01.11.13

1/11/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -42.1B
Spike / REVERSE
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.26 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.45 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with the largest deficit since July. The market had just bounced off of the LOD long for about 50 ticks due to a falling dollar. The news caused a short move that fell only 12 ticks and hit the 200 SMA, but could go no lower. With JOBB you would have filled short at 93.31 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close with 4 ticks at the end of the bar on the 200 SMA. The reversal coincided with a drop in the dollar after the news as it climbed 19 ticks in 3 min to hit the S1 Pivot and double top from the short term high achieved 10 min before the report. Then it fell to the 200 SMA 20 min later before it popped up again 10 ticks higher than the 1st peak but the delay means that the report influence likely is not the cause.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.11.12

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Sep 112012
 


CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.11.12

9/11/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -44.2B
Actual: -42.0B
Previous Revision: +1.0B to -41.9B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 96.69
1st Peak @ 96.51 – 0232 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 96.79 – 0234 (4 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast with the narrowest deficit in over a year, coupled with a moderate previous report upward revision. The market had been trading sideways and seesawing on either side of the all 3 major SMAs for several hours. The short move was due to the rallying of the dollar, with the support found close to the same level that was tested 3 times earlier in the last 2 hrs. The down spike also crossed all 3 major SMAs then the reversal recovered more than he drop to hit resistance near the previous high 25 min earlier. With JOBB you would not have seen any movement until about 15 sec after the report was released. This is cause to cancel the order in lieu of a possible dull reaction. If you did not, you would have filled short at 96.62 with no slippage, just above the 200 SMA. Knowing that it did drop lower earlier and it only gave you a few ticks so far, I would try to eke out 5-7 ticks and move my stop loss to the 50 SMA. With that strategy you would get out with a handful of ticks.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

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Aug 092012
 


CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

8/9/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -47.4B
Actual: -42.9B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -48.0B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 94.09
1st Peak @ 94.37 – 0232 (2 min)
28 ticks

Reverse to 93.95 – 0234 (4 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with the narrowest deficit in 9 months, coupled with a small previous report upward revision. Unemployment claims broke at the same time yielding a moderately positive result. Reaction to all the bullish news was reasonably strong as the market spiked long for 28 ticks in 2 min. The market had been trending upward in the very short term, so all 3 major SMAs were below the action and there was no apparent cause of resistance to arrest the upward movement. Then it reversed for 42 ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot and nick the 50 SMA finding solid support there. Then it chopped sideways through the pit open 30 min later. This report was not recommended for trading due to the combined medium impact reports breaking at the same time.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

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Jul 112012
 


CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

7/11/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.5B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: -0.5B to -50.6B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.86
1st Peak @ 85.05 – 0232 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 84.86 – 0234 (4 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.17 – 0246 (16 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 84.95 – 0256 (26 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast, with a small previous report revision. Still it yielded a small spike that corrected the short term oversold condition and reacted to the falling dollar. It climbed above the 200 SMA and nicked the 50 SMA before retracing. The 2nd peak was able to eclipse the 100 SMA, then the reversal fell just below the 50 and 200 SMAs.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.08.12

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Jun 082012
 


CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.08.12

6/8/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -49.4B
Actual: -50.1B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -47.1B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 82.34
1st Peak @ 82.22 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks (2x bottom)

Reverse to 82.63 – 0235 (5 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, with a small previous report downward revision. Reaction was a weak negative, shorting for 12 ticks then pulling back and reversing quickly. With JOBB you would not have filled until 20 sec if you had not cancelled the order. Due to the near matching report the slow reaction is not surprising. Reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot to achieve 41 ticks in only 5 min.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

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Mar 092012
 


CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

3/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.9B
Actual: -52.6B
Previous Revision: -1.6B to -50.4BINDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)

Notes: Unique situation with 6 reports released at the same time. The Unemployment report basically matched the forecast, by modest exceeding the forecast of jobs created, but matching the rate. Normally this report would overshadow all others, but the trade balance report had the worst deficit in 4 yrs giving it more attention and causing the reversal and drop. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 107.14 after slippage, then after a rapid spike crossing the R1 line, it retreated to seesaw and hover at the R1 for 5 sec. That is the place to get out before the reversal would have taken away your profit and eventually hit your stop loss without action 52 seconds into the 0331 candle. The reversal spent 15 minutes tethered to the FIST with all SMAs before falling over 100 ticks just after the CL open.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.10.12

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Feb 102012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.10.12

2/10/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -48.1B
Actual: -48.8B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -47.1B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 98.05
1st Peak @ 98.33 – 0334 / 0338 (4/8 min)
28 ticks (2x top)

Retrace to 98.08 – 0341 (11 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, but previous report revised mildy upward. Reaction was positive, peaking at the 50 SMA then hovering in a range for 5 min before reversing to S3 line.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.13.12

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Jan 132012
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.13.12

1/13/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -44.8B
Actual: -47.8B
Previous Revision: +0.2B to -43.3B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 99.65
1st Peak @ 99.46 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.37 – 0336 – 0342 (6-12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, but previous report revised slightly upward. Reaction was negative overall, hitting support at the 200 SMA. Initial reaction was dull, not filling order until 30 sec after report release. Long order would have filled, then retraced. I would cancel out after 10 sec of order not filling.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.09.11

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Dec 092011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 12.09.11

12/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -43.5B
Actual: -43.5B
Previous Revision: -1.1B to -44.2B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 98.69
1st Peak @ 98.84 – 0332 (2 min)
15 ticks

Retrace to 98.57 – 0333 (3 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast, but previous report revised mildly downward. Reaction was positive overall, hitting resistance at the 50 SMA, then reversing.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.10.11

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Nov 102011
 


CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.10.11

11/10/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -46.1B
Actual: -43.1B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -44.9B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 97.87
1st Peak @ 98.28 – 0331 (1 min)
41 ticks

Retrace to 97.78 – 0334 – 0339 (4-9 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast, and previous report revised slightly upward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (slightly positive at 390K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long wick on the 0331 candle is typical of the unemployment report.