ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 7.11.2014

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Jul 242014
 

ZS 11-14 (1 Min)  7_11_2014 ZS 11-14 (Second)  7_11_2014

7/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1087.25 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1096.00 – 1200:39 and 1200:44 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1075.50 – 1202:52 (3 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 1081.00 – 1204 (4 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1065.00 – 1211 (11 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 1083.75 – 1215 (15 min)
75 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case it would have been tame between 26 and 33 seconds for a safe setup. With the anchor point of 1087.25, your long entry would have filled at 1089 with 1 tick of slippage, then allowed up to 28 ticks to be captured, so a 25 tick profit target would have been perfect. The top was short lived as it eclipsed the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot and nearly hit the HOD then fell 82 ticks in about 2 min to eclipse the S2 Pivot. After a quick pullback of 22 ticks, it fell another 64 ticks in about 7 min to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 75 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA before it collapsed and settled down.

ZS 11-14 (1 min) 8.12.2014

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Sep 012014
 

ZS 11-14 (1 Min)  8_12_2014ZS 11-14 (Second)  8_12_2014

8/12/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1032.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1028.25 – 1200:58 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1037.00 – 1201:21 (2 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1028.75 – 1201:50 (2 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1041.00 – 1203 (3 min)
49 ticks

Pullback to 1033.25 – 1216 (16 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1045.25 -1230 (30 min)
48 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade, but that is often not the case. it would have been tame as it hovered on the S1 Mid Pivot, then on the S1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1032.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1031.25 with no slippage, then fallen a little more to allow about 10-12 ticks to be captured when it hovered at the bottom of the bar. Since the fill was short and continuing in the initial direction of the spike, look for a smaller target and exit quickly. Since it hovered for 13 sec below 1029.75, exit then. After that the reversal rebounded for 35 ticks in 23 sec to the S1 Mid Pivot, then pulled back for a double bottom 30 sec later. Then it reversed for 49 ticks in the next bar to the PP Pivot and 13 SMA. After that the market calmed down and the swings took longer as it pulled back 31 ticks in 13 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 48 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 14 min. It continued to step higher into the close.

ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 9.11.2014

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Sep 292014
 

ZS 11-14 (1 Min)  9_11_2014 ZS 11-14 (Second)  9_11_2014

9/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 975.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 972.00 – 1200:59 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 982.00 – 1202:48 (3 min)
40 ticks

Pullback to 969.50 – 1223 (23 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 977.25 – 1246 (46 min)
31 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade for the second month in a row, but that is often not the case. it would have been tame as it hovered near the S3 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 975.50 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 974.00 with no slippage, then fallen a little more to the S4 Mid Pivot to allow about 6-8 ticks to be captured when it hovered at the bottom of the bar. Since the fill was short and continuing in the initial direction of the spike, look for a smaller target and exit quickly at the first sign of hovering. After that the reversal rebounded for 40 ticks in a little less than 2 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then pulled back for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks 20 min later. Then it reversed for 31 ticks back to the S3 Pivot and 50 SMA 23 min later.

ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 10.10.2014

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Oct 132014
 

ZS 11-14 (1 Min)  10_10_2014 ZS 11-14 (Second)  10_10_2014

10/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 940.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 948.50 – 1200:45 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 942.00 – 1200:57 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 951.25 – 1201:38 (2 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 934.25 – 1205 (5 min)
68 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade but likely seen excessive slippage. It would have been tame as it hovered near the PP Pivot to provide an anchor point at 940.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 941.50 with no slippage, then climbed another 28 ticks in only 13 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and hover to present an ideal exit for about 25 ticks. After that it reversed 26 ticks in 12 sec then rallied for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in the next 40 sec as it eclipsed the R2 mid Pivot. Then it reversed 68 ticks in the next 3 min to the 13 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it rallied one more time to the R1 Pivot, then collapsed to the LOD as the session closed.

ZS 01-15 (1 Min) 11.10.2014

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Nov 232014
 

 

ZS 01-15 (1 Min)  11_10_2014ZS 01-15 (Second)  11_10_2014

11/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1043.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1036.00 – 1200:35 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1044.75 – 1203 (3 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1025.50 – 1212 (12 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 1038.00 – 1232 (32 min)
50 ticks

Final Peak @1021.75 – 1334 (94 min)
88 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been unsafe to trade as it shot long 16 ticks, then reversed strongly. As usual, it would have been tame as it hovered below the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1043.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1041.75 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall immediately for 31 ticks to nearly reach the OOD. Then it backed off a few ticks and chopped sideways. A target set at 1037.00 would have filled easily for about 19 ticks. It eventually reversed for 35 ticks in about 90 sec to the area of the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of another 42 ticks after 9 min to reach the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed 50 ticks in 20 min before falling slowly for a final peak of 15 more ticks after about an hour.

ZS 01-15 (1 Min) 12.10.2014

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Jan 032015
 

ZS 01-15 (1 Min)  12_10_2014ZS 01-15 (Second)  12_10_2014

12/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1040.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1048.00 – 1201:10 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1041.75 – 1201:34 (2 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1047.25 – 1201:57 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1028.25 – 1226 (26 min)
50 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been marginally safe if you exited quickly, but the alternate approach wins out again. As usual, it would have been tame as it hovered around the S1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1040.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 1042.25 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb steadily for about 40 sec for nearly a double top at the OOD. As it hovered for 7 sec and it was near the double top, look to exit there for about 20 ticks. It continued to swing as it reversed 25 ticks in the next 24 sec to the S1 Pivot followed by a pullback to just below the OOD as the :02 bar was expiring. Then it reversed 50 ticks in the next 24 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

ZS 03-15 (1 Min) 1.12.2015

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Feb 102015
 

ZS 03-15 (1 Min)  1_12_2015ZS 03-15 (Second)  1_12_2015

1/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1036.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1033.50 – 1200:37 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1041.00 – 1200:50 (1 min)
30 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. This was not a good idea to trade this report as it was combined with the quarterly Grain Stocks report that yielded a much larger and unstable reaction. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1035.25 with no slippage. Then you would have seen it chop and eventually stop you out after 5 sec for a 15 tick loss.

ZS 03-15 (1 Min) 2.10.2015

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Mar 132015
 

ZS 03-15 (1 Min)  2_10_2015
ZS 03-15 (Second)  2_10_2015

2/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 978.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 986.00 – 1201:10 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 972.25 – 1204 (4 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 981.00 – 1212 (12 min)
35 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy and marginally safe if you were patient past the first 30 sec, but the alternate approach wins out again. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the PP Pivot to provide an anchor point at 978.50 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 980.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb steadily for about 30 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot for 30 ticks. It hovered near the top for 7 sec to provide a trigger to exit with at least 20 ticks. Then it reversed 55 ticks in 2 min to cross the S1 Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. Then it pulled back 35 ticks in 8 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. We advised on the alert when the fill is in the same direction as the first spike to exit quickly and have a smaller profit goal. Along with that, it offered a great reversal trade opportunity.

ZS 05-15 (1 Min) 3.10.2015

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Mar 312015
 

ZS 05-15 (1 Min)  3_10_2015ZS 05-15 (Second)  3_10_2015

3/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 986.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 988.50 – 1200:33 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 984.50 – 1204 (4 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 990.00 – 1208 (8 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy and marginally safe if you exited quickly before it reversed. This time the alternate approach yielded a dull fill as the setup was about 1 sec early in hindsight. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 988.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it back off and hover for about 20 sec just above the old LOD position. before it slowly fell more. Look to exit as it is walking away with about 3-5 ticks. If you let it ride, it would have come within 1 tick of the stop loss, then pulled back to allow a negligible loss on the :03 or :04 bars. It eventually pulled back to cross the 100 SMA to allow an exit for up to 8 ticks, but that was 7 min later. It continued to oscillate between the 200 SMA and just below the S1 Pivot for the next hour or so. We will keep an eye on the trend to see if this reaction is an anomaly or if a change of approach is needed.

ZS 05-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

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Apr 182015
 

ZS 05-15 (1 Min)  4_9_2015ZS 05-15 (Second)  4_9_2015

4/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 954.25 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 950.25 – 1200:33 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 957.25 – 1201:57 (2 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 952.50 – 1203 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 958.00 – 1207 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been tame and safe to trade, but the alternate worked too. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the S4 Mid Pivot to provide an anchor point at 954.25 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 952.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have seen it fall and immediately hover for 6-8 ticks to be captures just above the S4 Pivot. Since this is a strong barrier, look to exit when it shows evidence of stalling. The move was also in line with the original move, so we expect a lower yield. After that it reversed 28 ticks in 1 min to the 50 SMA / S3 Pivot before pulling back 19 ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 4 min to the S3 Pivot / 100 SMA.