CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.30.13

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May 082013
 

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4_30_2013

4/30/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence  (1000 EDT)
Forecast:  61.4
Actual:  68.1
Previous revision:  +2.2 to 61.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.87 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 1028 (28 min)
57 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin but was caught in very bearish sentiment causing a muted 12 tick spike that was against the grain.  It ran into the 13 SMA and the S1 Mid Pivot arresting the long move.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.81 with about  1 tick of slippage.  Given the conditions and that it was just barely above the threshold of a dull report, move your stop loss up to near Breakeven and try to exit with a few ticks on the profit side or minimize the loss with the tight stop loss.  The reversal continued the bearish trend for 57 ticks, bottoming in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots. Then it corrected a bit upward.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

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May 072013
 

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5_2_2013

5/2/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 27B
Actual:  43B
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 4.293
1st Peak @ 4.123 – 1033 (3 min)
170 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.037 – 1206 (96 min)
256 ticks

Reversal to 4.085 – 1231 (121 min)
48 ticks

Notes:  Much larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a very large short spike of 170 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar after a brief struggle on the S3 Mid Pivot.  This is the largest delta on the result that we have seen in quite some time.  This triggered a downward fan that used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance for over 90 min as it kept stepping lower to a final peak of 256 ticks.  The final reversal reclaimed 48 ticks in about 25 min.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.245 with nearly 40 ticks of slippage.  Even with the high slippage, there would have been an easy opportunity to exit with 50 – 100 ticks.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 4.25.2013

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May 072013
 

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 4_25_2013

4/25/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 33B
Actual:  30B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 4.188
1st Peak @ 4.285 – 1031 (1 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 4.200 – 1032 (2 min)
85 ticks

Notes:  Slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a healthy long spike of 97 ticks after a premature short move on the :30 bar.  The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the PP/R1 Pivots, and extended the HOD 55 ticks.  It was unsustainable, leaving about 50 ticks of the bar naked as the :31 bar settled on the PP Pivot.  The reversal was quick, bottoming on the :32 bar for 85 ticks.  Then it attempted a 2nd peak, but could only manage coming within 18 ticks of the 1st peak before it fell back to chop sideways near the SMAs.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.220 with 22 ticks of slippage, then look to exit at about 4.280 at the R1 Pivot where it hovered near the top for about 8 sec before falling.

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 4.18.2013

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May 072013
 

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 4_18_2013

4/18/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual:  31B
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 4.179
1st Peak @ 4.329 – 1032 (2 min)
150 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.404 – 1127 (57 min)
225 ticks

Reversal to 4.369 – 1214 (104 min)
35 ticks

Notes:  Slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw the largest long spike we have ever seen of 150 ticks on the :30 – :31 bars.  The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the PP/R1/R2 Pivots and extended the HOD nearly 100 ticks as it was trading on the LOD before the news.  It climbed for several additional peaks, culminating on the Final peak of 225 ticks at 1127.  Then it fell for a small reversal of 35 ticks to just above the 100 SMA about an hour later.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.214 with about 25 ticks of slippage, then look to exit between the top of the :31 bar and the R2 Pivot with 60-80 ticks.

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 4.11.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 4_11_2013

4/11/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -12B
Actual: -14B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.060
1st Peak @ 4.143 – 1033 (3 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 4.107 – 1035 (5 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.185 – 1126 (56 min)
125 ticks

Reversal to 4.117 – 1219 (109 min)
68 ticks

Notes:  Nearly matching draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a long spike of 83 ticks on the :30 – :32 bars after a premature long spike on the :30 bar.  The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot and extended the HOD 11 ticks as it was trading on the LOD before the news.  After a quick reversal of 35 ticks, it climbed for several additional peaks, culminating on the Final peak of 125 ticks at 1126.  Then it fell for a reversal of 68 ticks to just above the 200 SMA about an hour later.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.074 with about 4 ticks of slippage on the early move, then look to exit between the 200 SMA and the HOD with about 30-50 ticks.

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 4.4.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 4_4_2013

4/4/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -89B
Actual: -94B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.968
1st Peak @ 3.892 – 1031 (1 min)
76 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.861 – 1035 (5 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 3.948 – 1141 (71 min)
87 ticks

Notes:  Moderately greater draw on the reserve than was forecast saw a short spike of 76 ticks on the :31 bar after a premature long spike on the :30 bar.  The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot, then it left 23 ticks of the tail naked as it backed off of the LOD.  Then it fell again for a 2nd peak of 31 more ticks.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.936 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then look to exit between the LOD and the 200 SMA with about 30 ticks.  The reversal after the 2nd peak was able to reclaim 87 ticks in a little over an hour, fighting through several layers of resistance.

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 3.28.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 05-13 (1 Min) 3_28_2013

3/28/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -85B
Actual: -95B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 4.079
1st Peak @ 4.107 – 1031 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 4.041 – 1035 (5 min)
66 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.033 – 1049 (19 min)
74 ticks

Notes:  Moderately greater draw on the reserve than was forecast saw a long spike of only 28 ticks on the :31 bar after a premature long spike on the :30 bar.  Then it left 18 ticks of the wick naked before reversing strongly in the next 4 min.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.093 with only about 4 ticks of slippage on the tame move, then look to exit at about 4.105 when it hovered near the top in the middle of the bar.  The reversal retreated back 66 ticks in only 5 min.  Then after a brief long move, it fell for an extended reversal of 8 more ticks in the next 15 min.

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 3.21.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 3_21_2013

3/21/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -70B
Actual: -62B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.957
1st Peak @ 3.891 – 1031 (1 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 3.991 – 1041 (11 min)
100 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.025 – 1146 (76 min)
134 ticks

Notes:  Moderately less draw on the reserve than was forecast saw a short spike of 66 ticks on the :31 bar after a large premature short spike on the :30 bar that crossed the PP Pivot and eclipsed the S1 Pivot.  Then it retreated strongly leaving 42 ticks on the tail naked.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.934 with about 13 ticks of slippage, then if you had placed a target at the S1 Pivot, you would have captured 37 ticks with about 30 sec remaining on the :31 bar.  As the long term trend on the NG is bullish, the reversal retreated back above the origin for 100 ticks in a short 11 min.  Then after a short move, it climbed for an extended reversal of 34 more ticks an hour later.

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 3.14.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 3_14_2013

3/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -136B
Actual: -145B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.757
1st Peak @ 3.810 – 1031 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 3.758 – 1038 (38 min)
52 ticks

Notes:  Moderately greater loss than was forecast saw a long spike of 53 ticks on the :31 bar nearly hitting the R3 Pivot, then falling to leave 30 ticks of the wick naked.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.787 with about 20 ticks of slippage, then had a brief opportunity to exit at about 3.800 with 13 ticks.  If you waited too long, it would have reversed and you would have seen trade in the red then slowly march toward your stop loss.  The reversal retreated back to the origin for 52 ticks, then it slowly climbed up about 40 ticks in the next 45 min.

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 3.7.2013

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May 062013
 

NG 04-13 (1 Min) 3_7_2013

3/7/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -135B
Actual: -146B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.550
1st Peak @ 3.603 – 1031 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 3.561 – 1117 (47 min)
42 ticks

Notes:  Moderately greater loss than was forecast saw a short spike of 53 ticks on the :31 bar eclipsing the R2 Pivot.  Then it pulled back to the R2 Pivot.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.582 with more than 20 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 3.595 with 13 ticks.   After that, it attempted a 2nd peak then slowly reversed over about 40 min for 42 ticks to cross the 50 SMA.

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