7/2/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 74B
Actual: 69B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.825
Whipsaw between 2.811 and 2.839 – 1030:00
28 tick span

Pullback to 2.835 – 1030:55 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 2.814 – 1033 (3 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.875 – 1040 (10 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 2.840 – 1057 (27 min)
35 ticks

Double Top @ 2.875 – 1124 (54 min)
35 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.814 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 2.834 (stopped for 20 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Initial reaction was a whipsaw to stop you out. After that it eventually broke out long for a nice 2nd peak, then reversed before achieving a double top.

7/16/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 89B
Actual: 99B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.902
Whipsaw between 2.876 and 2.905 – 1030:04
28 tick span

Pullback to 2.871 – 1031:34 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 2.918 – 1036 (6 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.864 – 1057 (27 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 2.889 – 1121 (51 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.886 (short)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.872 – 14 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.855 (just below the S1 Pivot) – move higher.

Notes: Initial reaction was a whipsaw that would have filled short but not stopped you as the stop was large enough. After that it settled down after 17s and drifted lower to allow up to 14 ticks to be captured as it reached the S1 Mid Pivot. Then a strong reversal followed by a 2nd peak.

7/30/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 53B
Actual: 52B
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.817
1st Peak @ 2.847 – 1030:00 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2.809 – 1030:14 (1 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 2.824 – 1030:29 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 2.782 – 1056 (19 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 2.798 – 1117 (47 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.832 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.835 -3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.852 (just above the PP Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Initial move was small and recoiled to chop around the fill point. As this was a near matching report, exit quickly near break even. If you did not the reversal at 14 sec would have stopped you out. After that it reversed short to just above the S3 Mid Pivot.

8/13/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 47B
Actual: 65B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.911
1st Peak @ 2.838 – 1030:30 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 2.864 – 1031:19 (2 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.833 – 1050 (20 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 2.848 – 1100 (30 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.881 (short)
Slippage: 20 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.839 – 42 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.845 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Due to the 18 BCF offset, strong first peak. Great opportunity to place a short order either on the :32 bar or the :40 bar as the 13 EMA was approaching and target 25 or so ticks.

8/27/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 59B
Actual: 69B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.685
1st Peak @ 2.642 – 1030:15 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.675 – 1033 (3 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 2.662 – 1037 (7 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 2.694 – 1047 (17 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 2.669 – 1053 (23 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 2.710 – 1146 (76 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.665 (short)
Slippage: 10 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.643 -22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.631 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Smaller than average move fell to stall and hover in between the S2 and S3 Mid Pivots. As it hovered for 17 sec below the S2 Pivot, look to exit quickly. Plenty of swings until 1053 when it reversed long for almost 1 hr to the HOD.