US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 3.13.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

3/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 1.0%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010447
1st Peak @ 0.010410 – 0831 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 0.010441 – 0843 (13 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010393 – 0946 (76 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.010422 – 1006 (96 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast on all fronts. This caused a short spike of 37 ticks on the :31 bar that reached the S1 Mid Pivot and the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.010441 with 2 ticks of slippage. After it smashed through the PP Pivot and OOD, stay in and see where it settles. Then look to exit near the LOD with 25+ ticks. After the peak, it achieved a double bottom 5 min later, then reversed for 31 ticks back to the 50 SMA. Then it stepped lower for a slow developing 2nd peak of 54 ticks in the next hr, eclipsing the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed back up to the 100 SMA and OOD for 29 ticks in 20 min.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 2.13.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

2/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010703
1st Peak @ 0.010711 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010714 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.010687 – 0911 (41 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report was mostly matching overall with only the core reading barely exceeding the expectation with no previous revisions. With JOBB, you could have cancelled the order upon seeing an elevated amount of volatility on the :29 bar. If you let it go, you would have filled long at 0.010707 with no slippage. Then it popped up to 0.010711 and retraced 10 ticks before climbing again to settle near the top of the bar as it was contending with the 50 SMA. Look to close out with 2-3 ticks as the report was matching. After the 1st peak, it backed off and headed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks 10 min later. Then it fell 27 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 1.15.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

1/15/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.011306
1st Peak @ 0.011292 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.011251 – 1015 (105 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.011321 – 1119 (169 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive on both the core and actual reading offset by a mild downward revision on the core previous reading. PPI and Empire State Manufacturing broke at the same time and were negative. The Retail Sales results won out to cause a 14 tick short spike on 2 bars that crossed the R3 Pivot near the origin and 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.011302 with no slippage, then look to exit at the 200 SMA for about 7 ticks. After a small retreat, the market slowly trended lower for another 41 ticks in the next 100 min to eclipse the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 70 ticks in the next hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and eclipsing the R3 Pivot.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 11.14.2012

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

11/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.3%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.012490
1st Peak @ 0.012500 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.012469 – 0851 (21 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly positive on both the core and actual reading offset by a mild upward revision on the previous readings. PPI at the same time and was fairly negative. The market was trending lower below the S4 Pivot, having sold off heavily in the earlier part of the day. The initial spike went against the grain and crossed the 50/100 SMAs. After 20 sec it surrendered the gains and fell. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.012494 with no slippage. Look to exit at 0.012498 with 4 ticks and move the stop loss to breakeven just in case. Then it reversed for 31 ticks in the next 20 min to establish a solid LOD.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 10.15.2012

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 272013

10/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.012713
1st Peak @ 0.012700 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.012725 – 0856 (26 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive on both the core and actual reading including an upward revision on the previous readings. Empire State manufacturing broke at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market had just hit the LOD and was in trending lower, the short spike was relatively small with the results only delivering 13 ticks as it crossed the S4 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.012708 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 6 ticks as the low was established and it hovered. The oversold sentiment and the negative Empire State report caused the reversal to take over quickly and make a long move to eclipse the 200 SMA and S3 Pivot 25 min later for 25 ticks.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 3.31.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

3/28/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 703.75
1st Peak @ 670.50 – 1201 (1 min)
133 ticks

Final Peak @ 646.75 – next day 1807 (7 min after open)
228 ticks

Reversal to 649.50 – next day 1813 (6 min after final peak)
11 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 133 ticks on the 3 bars that completely changed the sentiment of the market. The report drove it South through several levels of support to bottom at 670.50, over 50 ticks below the S4 Pivot. Trading was halted due to a 10% loss in the session at 670.50. Hence the final peak of 228 ticks was attained on Sunday evening when the market was reopened 7 min after the open. Then the final reversal reclaimed only 11 ticks in 6 min. After that it traded sideways in a tight range.

ZC 03-13 (1 Min) 1.11.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

1/11/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 687.00
1st Peak @ 717.00 – 0703 (1 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 701.50 – 0714 (14 min)
62 ticks

2nd Peak @ 723.75 – 0756 (56 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 712.75 – 0848 (108 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report time shifted to 1200 Eastern for this and all future reports. Report Reaction caused a long spike of 120 ticks over 3 bars that completely changed the sentiment of the market as it had been selling off below the S3 Pivot and was at the LOD. The report drove it North through every measurable level of resistance to peak over 40 ticks above the R3 Pivot. After the first peak, it retreated to the R2 Pivot and 20 SMA in about 10 min, then engineered a long developing 2nd peak for another 27 ticks above the 1st peak nearly an hour after the report. I would be cautious trading later moves as you are in the afternoon session of Friday, but this was a very solid report. The final reversal after the 2nd peak yielded 44 ticks in about 50 min.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 9.28.2012

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

9/28/2012 Grain Stocks – Corn (0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 685.25
1st Peak @ 708.75 – 0831 (1 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 692.25 – 0832 (2 min)
66 ticks

Final Peak @ 742.75 – next day 1805 (5 min after open)
230 ticks

Reversal to 734.50 – next day 1904 (59 min after final peak)
33 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long spike of 94 ticks on the :01 bar that completely changed the sentiment of the market. The report drove it North through several levels of resistance to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot for 94 ticks. After the first peak, it retreated to the R1 Mid Pivot and 13 SMA on the :02 bar, then proceeded to step higher into an upward fan. It took the market ever higher until trading was halted due to a 10% gain in the session at 730.50. Hence the final peak of 230 ticks was attained on Sunday evening when the market was reopened 5 min after the open. Then the final reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in a little less than an hour.

ZC 09-12 (1 Min) 6.29.2012

Grain Stocks Comments Off

May 272013

6/29/2012 Grain Stocks – Corn (0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 633.25
1st Peak @ 615.50 – 0831 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 648.00 – 0840 (10 min)
130 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused an unsustainable short spike of 71 ticks on the :01 bar that hit the S2 Mid Pivot and retreated after about 10 sec. The report caused a follow on quick reversal that changed the polarity, yielding 130 ticks to extend the HOD and hit the R2 Pivot. After that it trended lower within a trend channel, oscillating lower with each cycle taking about an hour.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

May 262013

5/10/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 640.50
1201 Bar:

1st Peak @ 630.00 – 1201 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 643.00 – 1201 (1 min)
52 ticks

Settle @ 632.00 – 1201 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 636.50 – 1207 (7 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 625.00 – 1214 (14 min)
62 ticks

Final Reversal to 638.00 – 1318 (78 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 42 ticks, that was unsustainable crossing the 100/50 SMAs near the origin and bottoming on the S2 Pivot. After 6 sec of hovering near the S2 Pivot, it reversed upward for 52 ticks in the next 3 sec, then fell to settle near the earlier low as the bar expired. Prior to the report, the market had been correcting mildly upward in a tame manner. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 637.50 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 20 ticks if you had a profit target setup. Otherwise the quick reversal would have stopped you out with a 15 tick loss. This is the second time we have seen this type of reaction (see 11/9/12) as it goes one way, then reverses polarity quickly, but changes direction again to finish near its original peak, although the other occurrence allowed more time to capture the profit. I would recommend using an auto breakeven after 15 ticks of profit are achieved, then if you are quick, look for a short entry when it is at the S1 Mid Pivot. After the wild :01 bar, it reversed for 23 ticks 6 min later to the 13 SMA, then fell for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks 7 min later. Then the slow developing final reversal yielded 52 ticks in the next hour, eclipsing the 200 SMA and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

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