4/6/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008411
1st Peak @ 0.008404 – 1000:33 (1 min)
Reversal to 0.008415 – 1015 (15 min)
Pullback to 0.008408 – 1018 (18 min)
Reversal to 0.008414 – 1029 (29 min)
Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast but still caused a moderate and safe move. This caused a 7 tick short spike that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008408 with no slippage, then you would have seen it trickle lower to hover for 11 sec at the bottom of the spike to allow 4 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 11 ticks in the next 14. Then it pulled back 7 ticks in 3 min before reversing 6 ticks in 11 min.
7/23/2013 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 48.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1975
1st Peak @ 3.1835 – 2147 (2 min)
2nd Peak @ 3.1730 – 2153 (8 min)
Reversal to 3.1805 – 2157 (12 min)
Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report revision with a reading substantially below 50. This caused a short spike of 28 ticks that bottomed on the :47 bar at the S1 Pivot after crossing the 50 SMA close to the origin. The market had been trending lower for about 2 hours before the report with the SMAs falling, so the short spike started as it was struggling with the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.1935 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit near the S1 Mid Pivot at about 3.1865 with about 14 ticks or if you were patient and know the report peaks later, go for about 20 or so ticks. After the 1st peak, it briefly stalled, then continued lower for another 21 ticks in the next 6 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in 4 min, nearly reaching the 20 SMA.
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