Nov 212012

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: -1.5M
Started @ 87.54
1st Peak @ 87.68 – 0531 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 87.34 – 0532 (2 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a small drop in gasoline and large drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 87.64 with no slippage, peak briefly 4 ticks higher, then seen it head for your stop loss in 5 sec. If you had been quick, you could have closed out with something less than 15 ticks, but not much. After the long pop of only 14 ticks, it reversed for 34 ticks to hit a short term area of support, then popped back up to just below the 200 SMA. Then it continued oscillating between the 200 SMA and lower extremes for the next hour. Relatively low magnitude on the swings, but still presents good opportunities to buy the dips (after the :43 and :05 bars) and sell the rips (any wick just below the 200 SMA) looking for 15 ticks.