CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.04.13

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 92.14
1st Peak @ 91.92 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 92.40 – 0832 (2 min)
48 ticks

Extended Reversal to 92.99 – 1001 (91 min)
107 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 872.3
1st Peak @ 870.0 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 873.7 – 0837 (7 min)
37 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 143’29
1st Peak @ 144’14 – 0831 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 143’21 – 0839 (9 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Overall matching report with little fireworks…only 5K more jobs created than anticipated, a previous revision of +15K jobs, offset by a rise in the U-3 rate of 0.1%. This drove a tame market reaction, causing a short term bearish reaction that reversed upward on the CL and TF, and a rally, then reversal on the ZB. Both the CL and the TF peaked just a few seconds into the :01 bar for 20-30 ticks, then reversed to breakeven briefly, before reversing strongly into the :02 bar. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed at the 100 SMA, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, rallying 17 ticks on the first bar (equivalent of about 51 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing the S1 Pivot about halfway up the spike. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling long at 144’01 with 1 ticks of slippage, then got out with 11 ticks at 144’12. After peaking, it reversed for 25 ticks in 8 min through all the major SMAs and bottomed at the S2 Pivot. Then it oscillated higher over the next hr.

We continue to recommend the ZB at the preferred index as demonstrated with a matching report, the ZB still generated 17 ticks (about 13 max capturable), and was stable in holding the peak unlike the CL and TF.