-011113.jpg "Click to enlarge")
1/11/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -42.1B
Spike / REVERSE
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.26 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks
Reversal to 93.45 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks
Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with the largest deficit since July. The market had just bounced off of the LOD long for about 50 ticks due to a falling dollar. The news caused a short move that fell only 12 ticks and hit the 200 SMA, but could go no lower. With JOBB you would have filled short at 93.31 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close with 4 ticks at the end of the bar on the 200 SMA. The reversal coincided with a drop in the dollar after the news as it climbed 19 ticks in 3 min to hit the S1 Pivot and double top from the short term high achieved 10 min before the report. Then it fell to the 200 SMA 20 min later before it popped up again 10 ticks higher than the 1st peak but the delay means that the report influence likely is not the cause.