Sep 282011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.28.11

9/28/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:-0.1%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 4.1%
Started @ 84.15
Peak @ 84.41 – 0232 (2 min)
26 ticks

Retrace to 83.80 – 0239 (9 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast overall with no or minimal revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike with a larger follow on reversal. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a reversal up to the 50 SMA, then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. In this case the report did not have much shock value, so it only rose 26 ticks, then fell 61. I would watch it interact with the 50 SMA when it had trouble rising much higher, close out at or just above it. With the downward slope, if it has a secondary peak, it will be lower.