Nov 152011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.15.11

11/15/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.6%
Previous revision:-0.1% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.5%
Previous Revision: none
Started @ 98.29
1st Peak @ 98.53 – 0331 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0341 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.19 – 0356 (26 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in above forecast, but previous revision on core report was slightly lower. This caused a healthy spike with a good reversal between the 1st and 2nd peaks and after the 2nd peak. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was moderately negative, taking away some of the momentum from the spike (the long wick on the 0331 candle and full reversal on 0332 candle). I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect. Either close when you see falling from the peak on the 1st candle, or wait and ride the heat until the 2nd peak 10-15 min later.