Apr 272013

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2_1_2013

Caption for 2/1:
2/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 50.8
Previous revision: n/a
Started @ 96.83
1st Peak @ 96.99 – 1001 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.80 – 1002 (2 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 98.15 – 1150 (110 min)
135 ticks

Reversal to 97.31 – 1253 (173 min)
84 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast and rose above 53 for the strongest reading in 7 months. This caused a muted and unsustained initial reaction of only 16 ticks, running into resistance at the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot. Then it continued a slow but steady fan of 135 total ticks in a little less than 2 hrs that labored through the 200 SMA and PP-R1 Pivots, eventually peaking on the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 1 ticks of slippage at 96.90. Noting the bullish news and average corresponding reaction, be patient and wait for at least 20 ticks at the level of the 200 SMA. If you rode the wave until the 13 or 20 was crossed, you would have secured at least 70 ticks in about 20 min. I managed 17 ticks, placing my exit at 97.07 conservatively. The market was also oversold in the short term, trading just above the LOD before the report. This enhanced the buyhing pressure. The reversal was able to reclaim 84 ticks in about an hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the PP Pivot.