Feb 292012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.29.12

2/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.8%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 106.92
1st Peak@ 107.13 – 0331 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 106.67 – 0336 (36 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately positive, however under current market conditions the reverse reaction tends to be true, as good data has been triggering the sale of US bonds. Quick pop up to 107.13 then seesawed between 107.00 and 107.10 for the rest of the minute before falling significantly on the 0332 candle due to crossing both the 100 and 200 SMAs. I would close out around 107.08 by setting a stop limit order there. The reversal doubled the initial spike by slicing through all SMAs, pulling back to the 50 SMA, then falling more to bottom out at 46 ticks off the peak on the 0336 candle. Then we saw a recovery back to the 200 SMA before reversing to the CL open. The activity after 0336 to about 0430 was due to the influence of the report (at least partially), but not predictable.