Mar 132012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12

3/13/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:0.9%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 1.1%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.6%
Started @ 106.78
1st Peak @ 106.88 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.92 – 0236 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 106.74 – 0243 (13 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Due to matching the forecast overall and with the CL caught in a tight FIST at the time of the release, little impact to the market was felt. If you used JOBB, you probably got in long at 106.83 or 106.84 on the initial spike and then saw it retrace to loiter in the 106.76 – 106.83 range. Normally I advise to get out when you see this reaction and even eat a small loss rather than wait for it to potentially hit your stop loss. However my experience and intuition led me to stay in. Looking at the 15 min chart, the 200 SMA was at 106.80 and the 5 min chart 200 SMA was at 106.77. These served as powerful barriers. I moved up my stop loss to 106.75 and placed a pending sell limit at 106.86 based on the height of the 0831 candle at 106.88 and the double bottom at 106.75. Then my exit order was filled on the 0836 candle with 3 ticks of profit on the 2nd peak ascent. As the peak magnitudes were small, the reversal was also small.