Nov 022011

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.02.11

11/2/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 102K
Previous Revision:+25K to 116k
Started @ 94.06
1st Peak @ 94.40 – 0218 (3 min)
34 ticks

Retrace to 94.13 – 0222 (7 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised largely upward. Strong 3 candle rise aided by previously occurring FAN. Given the FAN and the positive initial reaction, I would wait and let the trade play out. When the 0219 candle retraces more than 5 ticks, that is a good place to get out since the upward movement is terminating, yielding to the reversal. Notice the reversal dropped to the bottom of the trend line that the FAN had established.