11/2/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 94.00 (0632)
1st Peak @ 93.29 – 0636 (4 min)
2nd Peak @ 92.45 – 0725 (53 min)
Reverse to 93.47 – 0748 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)
Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in continuing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Market was in a FIST prior to report release. After seeing the long tail on the 0633 candle and the 0635 candle start below the 100 / 200 SMAs with no pullback, I would get in going short below the 50 SMA. I would set my stop loss about 10 ticks above the 100 / 200 SMA anticipating a retrace and 2nd fall. I would consider closing on the 0711 candle, but after seeing the long wick, it should continue down again (MACD also did not really cross yet). Then I would close on the 0724 candle after seeing the double bottom.