May 092013

CL 04-13 (1 Min)  2_26_2013

2/26/2013 FED Testimony (1000 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 93.44 (1003)
1st Peak @ 93.07 – 1008 (5 min)
37 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.17 – 1144 (101 min)
127 ticks

Reverse to 92.75 – 1241 (158 min)
58 ticks

Notes:   FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee.   Chmn Bernanke defended the FED’s policy of open ended asset purchases stating that the risk of inflation is well contained and the benefit far outweighs any risks to the economy.   The markets responded positively with the dollar rallying causing the CL to fall.  The long reaction from 10:00 to 10:03 was due to a strong Consumer Confidence report.  If that report had not been there, the market would have traded sideways until 10:03.  If you noticed the dollar rally and shorted the CL, the first exit point would have been the 200 SMA at 10:34.  The reversal claimed 58 ticks in about 1 hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.