May 092013

CL 04-13 (1 Min)  3_6_2013

3/6/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 89.92
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1403 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 89.94 – 1406 (6 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 90.50 – 1450 (50 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 90.37 – 1529 (89 min)
13 ticks

Notes:  The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. The DX stayed mostly flat after the report, but the CL rallied.  This resulted in a spike of 17 ticks in 3 bars, followed by a small reversal.  Then it turned into an upward fan riding the 13 elevator up to 90.50 about 20 min after the pit closed.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at 89.98 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit quickly for about 10 ticks.  If you chose to stay in for the longer term, stay in until the 13 crosses the 20 or the MACD crosses and trail a stop a few ticks below the 20 SMA. Look to exit at about 90.48 when the pit closed and it traded sideways for several minutes for about 50 ticks.  After that, the reversal was only able to garner 13 ticks in about 40 min due to the significant drop in volume.